Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on April 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7fd80bf2113ff0875efaff9491b4606d6fe427aaf971307b757961271ea556d2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $59,710
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,526
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,710 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 5c | 2,183$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.26 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 5c | 1,840$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.54 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 4c | 1,715$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.87 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 6c | 1,358$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.38 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01fb…ad54backed Yes | 4c | 1,315$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.97 | 50 | 0%0 W · 50 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed Yes | 4c | 1,229$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.83 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf607…7ca0backed Yes | 5c | 1,107$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.86 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 3c | 965.2$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 5c | 872.78$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.2 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes | 16c | 851.71$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.23 | 171 | 35.1%60 W · 111 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 7c | 657.66$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.23 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 15c | 646.28$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.78 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 16c | 613.27$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.53 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26b1…cc81backed Yes | 5c | 459.91$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 234 | 29.1%68 W · 166 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x358a…9eccbacked Yes | 7c | 434.62$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.94 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -23%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4973…5527backed Yes | 5c | 424.17$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 300 | 46.7%140 W · 160 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 13c | 410.62$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.5 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 4c | 410.02$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8ab8…6743backed Yes | 6c | 350.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.32 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 52cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 5c | 338.82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.77 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 8c | 304.12$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d6…017cbacked Yes | 11c | 300$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 238 | 23.9%57 W · 181 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 11c | 265.97$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.48 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf132…c706backed Yes | 4c | 259.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 308 | 13.6%42 W · 266 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea2…e97fbacked Yes | 6c | 258.59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 350 | 18%63 W · 287 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe272…ac63backed Yes | 8c | 257.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 205 | 34.1%70 W · 135 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc63a…26a0backed Yes | 29c | 255.63$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.24 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 9c | 246.37$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.85 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda99…322fbacked Yes | 6c | 234.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 91 | 13.2%12 W · 79 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaba7…8ff1backed Yes | 12c | 220.86$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.83 | 195 | 41.5%81 W · 114 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…4d2bbacked Yes | 9c | 219.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 81 | 51.9%42 W · 39 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 19c | 206.77$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.56 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Yes | 6c | 205.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 191 | 23%44 W · 147 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 79c | 196.9$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 12c | 178.53$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.94 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 28c | 150.09$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.36 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 7c | 147.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc2be…66b0backed Yes | 13c | 139.75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.26 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 36c | 134.31$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.52 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e8…90bfbacked Yes | 10c | 133.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 25c | 129.57$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.08 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c24…81e9backed Yes | 8c | 129.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 10c | 124.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56ed…49d1backed No | 77c | 104.1$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.21 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad2e…95f1backed Yes | 37c | 100.69$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.4 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.29per pick | 42cpaid | +76.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3319…977abacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 264 | 26.9%71 W · 193 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3df9…2bddbacked Yes | 18c | 98.89$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 191 | 23.6%45 W · 146 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 74c | 97.95$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.64 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 14c | 93.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 25c | 89.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…37e0backed Yes | 22c | 89.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.18 | 310 | 29.7%92 W · 218 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 12c | 88.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 15c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80a5…4b57backed Yes | 30c | 65.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7396…b89cbacked No | 74c | 63.29$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 107 | 80.4%86 W · 21 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 27c | 59.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a9…75f9backed No | 75c | 54.73$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.63 | 262 | 53.4%140 W · 122 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 26c | 48.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 74c | 46.29$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.17 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…4785backed Yes | 31c | 42.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +3.8wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x052e…ade1backed Yes | 27c | 39.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 283 | 29.3%83 W · 200 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a3…fc4abacked No | 73c | 38.89$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.48 | 130 | 59.2%77 W · 53 L | -11.4wins | -0.09per pick | 68cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9194…9a04backed Yes | 44c | 34.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 79c | 30.41$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.39 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 76c | 25.22$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe744…67a8backed No | 74c | 22.96$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 154 | 77.9%120 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 75cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 75c | 22.52$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.69 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x298e…107ebacked No | 76c | 21.97$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 261 | 69.3%181 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x399f…e8d8backed No | 74c | 19.68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 101 | 54.5%55 W · 46 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 72c | 15.82$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.44 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6572…3968backed No | 72c | 14.58$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.08 | 45 | 71.1%32 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on April 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on April 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C or higher on April 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.