Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on April 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfaf6be89099b4fcf19a33e0ab3b5f032c663ebdab03ddfde284cd615869360d8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $57,861
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $59,613
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,861 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 195 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8ef5…9313backed No | 1c | 2,169$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 43c | 1,177$506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$670.81 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4f0…22e0backed No | 4c | 1,145$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.76 | 70 | 21.4%15 W · 55 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc214…105dbacked No | 44c | 1,093$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 55c | 955.22$523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.28 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed No | 2c | 923.02$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.77 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 48c | 833.21$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$437.12 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 19c | 740.14$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.51 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc575…d68ebacked No | 68c | 623.2$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.05 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d2…39b0backed Yes | 30c | 459.7$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.03 | 71 | 46.5%33 W · 38 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…2112backed Yes | 71c | 453.4$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.67 | 101 | 84.2%85 W · 16 L | +26.9wins | +0.27per pick | 57cpaid | +70.6%equal weight | 74+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 20c | 422.57$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.97 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 40c | 398.09$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.38 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f7…9939backed Yes | 23c | 379.39$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.1 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +53%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x035a…ff68backed No | 47c | 370.28$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.58 | 315 | 42.9%135 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 54c | 359.39$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.59 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe272…ac63backed Yes | 37c | 349.8$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.92 | 205 | 34.1%70 W · 135 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed No | 11c | 346.69$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.14 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b33…044ebacked Yes | 48c | 338.34$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.9 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 42c | 332.91$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.59 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 72c | 327.99$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 52c | 323.82$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.6 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 23c | 311.75$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.02 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2be…66b0backed Yes | 58c | 304.47$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.07 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d6…017cbacked Yes | 28c | 296.93$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.2 | 238 | 23.9%57 W · 181 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 44c | 282.37$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.54 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x62fa…187dbacked No | 7c | 271.62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.84 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes | 53c | 259.2$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.97 | 331 | 39.6%131 W · 200 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 70c | 256.17$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.05 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe274…eea3backed No | 77c | 254.59$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.35 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 53c | 252.83$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.94 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9502…ba22backed Yes | 56c | 240.83$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.43 | 111 | 46.8%52 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cbe…c9e4backed No | 42c | 228.09$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.53 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 51c | 215.8$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.57 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0943…1019backed Yes | 58c | 214.3$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.73 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 12c | 212.95$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.06 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x12fc…ad1ebacked No | 56c | 208.6$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.93 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfc3…bec9backed Yes | 56c | 208.36$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.58 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.37per pick | 43cpaid | +179.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 62c | 204.55$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.22 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97eb…9fbebacked No | 55c | 200$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 299 | 22.7%68 W · 231 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 54c | 197.36$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.33 | 214 | 29.4%63 W · 151 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 51c | 196.13$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.69 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 46c | 183.68$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.76 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f6f…d78bbacked Yes | 57c | 174.64$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.4 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 55c | 174.61$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.14 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6688…fdcebacked Yes | 61c | 166.45$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.34 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 35c | 152.33$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.92 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 23c | 151.07$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.74 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed No | 74c | 150$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.15 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa74f…25c0backed No | 66c | 145.85$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.63 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 30c | 139.5$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.27 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b06…70cbbacked Yes | 57c | 135.11$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.49 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9723…5bdebacked Yes | 43c | 134.36$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.85 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked No | 42c | 131.25$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.62 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…e5bfbacked Yes | 71c | 130.63$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.04 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +4.8wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +35%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xafb1…0329backed No | 59c | 130.41$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.53 | 81 | 60.5%49 W · 32 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4c5…2420backed Yes | 47c | 127.04$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.76 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3738…ed32backed Yes | 44c | 126.44$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.69 | 201 | 44.3%89 W · 112 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa329…db02backed No | 72c | 125.56$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.16 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaba7…8ff1backed Yes | 36c | 125.13$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.86 | 195 | 41.5%81 W · 114 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfecd…eb97backed No | 42c | 124.66$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.96 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +3.6wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +67.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 11c | 123.81$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.07 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3967…3318backed Yes | 60c | 122.63$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…81aabacked No | 28c | 122.21$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.79 | 270 | 79.3%214 W · 56 L | +52.5wins | +0.19per pick | 60cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x399f…e8d8backed No | 70c | 120.37$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.91 | 101 | 54.5%55 W · 46 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4a7…a23cbacked Yes | 45c | 118.51$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.72 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +2.9wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 32c | 108.76$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.33 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce1…c33abacked No | 43c | 108.04$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.67 | 149 | 61.1%91 W · 58 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2be…4a4cbacked Yes | 53c | 101.73$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.38 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 23c | 101.26$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.89 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf5…606bbacked Yes | 50c | 100.02$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.65 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e2b…3d17backed Yes | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.5 | 87 | 62.1%54 W · 33 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Yes | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.7 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…3583backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 169 | 36.1%61 W · 108 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…ce76backed Yes | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 58c | 99.99$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd342…1ad9backed Yes | 48c | 99.49$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.13 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 27c | 98.44$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.08 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc393…66f9backed Yes | 63c | 97.5$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 129 | 32.6%42 W · 87 L | -8.9wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd84…109dbacked Yes | 23c | 95.75$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.63 | 220 | 28.2%62 W · 158 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 40c | 94.82$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.26 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 45c | 94.05$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.74 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 40c | 92.54$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.4 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf0…d2b3backed Yes | 66c | 88.16$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.65 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -3.5wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -59%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8bee…a369backed Yes | 58c | 82.65$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.76 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x254c…bc46backed Yes | 63c | 82.06$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.03 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7745…230bbacked Yes | 62c | 80$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.08 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.9wins | +0.36per pick | 52cpaid | +88.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xff53…f5ecbacked Yes | 25c | 79.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.99 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe56…700cbacked Yes | 49c | 79.79$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.79 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x302c…108abacked Yes | 30c | 78.26$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.02 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4973…5527backed Yes | 56c | 78.18$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.6 | 300 | 46.7%140 W · 160 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea4a…39c8backed Yes | 50c | 77.86$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.06 | 223 | 35.9%80 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2347…5adfbacked Yes | 49c | 77.78$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.82 | 119 | 38.7%46 W · 73 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x080e…da87backed Yes | 32c | 76.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.27 | 185 | 34.6%64 W · 121 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 54c | 75.91$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.94 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3182…4ff7backed No | 72c | 75.85$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.97 | 141 | 68.1%96 W · 45 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…4785backed Yes | 35c | 75.74$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.56 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +3.8wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x86e4…3afebacked Yes | 60c | 75$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.85 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +3.0wins | +0.22per pick | 43cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 38c | 74.61$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.52 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c82…f315backed No | 55c | 70.83$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.94 | 139 | 30.2%42 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on April 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C or higher on April 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.