TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on April 3?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$57,861
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$59,613

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,861 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 195 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8ef5…9313backed No1c2,169$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.450%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes43c1,177$506 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$670.8195933.5%321 W · 638 L+28.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa4f0…22e0backed No4c1,145$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.767021.4%15 W · 55 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc214…105dbacked No44c1,093$478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$478.0410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes55c955.22$523 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$432.2848331.3%151 W · 332 L+20.4wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+90.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6dce…4490backed No2c923.02$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.771,28519.5%250 W · 1,035 L+44.3wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes48c833.21$396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$437.126,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x91d9…141dbacked No19c740.14$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.511,25638.2%480 W · 776 L+53.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc575…d68ebacked No68c623.2$424 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$424.05862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick52cpaid-5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf8d2…39b0backed Yes30c459.7$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$320.037146.5%33 W · 38 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-12.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa178…2112backed Yes71c453.4$324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.6710184.2%85 W · 16 L+26.9wins+0.27per pick57cpaid+70.6%equal weight74+0.21 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes20c422.57$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$338.9717,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes40c398.09$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.387,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb2f7…9939backed Yes23c379.39$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.13823.7%9 W · 29 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick21cpaid+53%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x035a…ff68backed No47c370.28$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.5831542.9%135 W · 180 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No54c359.39$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.598,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe272…ac63backed Yes37c349.8$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.9220534.1%70 W · 135 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+31.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbf14…5d95backed No11c346.69$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.1434617.9%62 W · 284 L+14.8wins+0.04per pick14cpaid-26.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6b33…044ebacked Yes48c338.34$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.92138.1%8 W · 13 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-16.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes42c332.91$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.591,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes72c327.99$236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.312,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No52c323.82$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.64,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd80a…c714backed Yes23c311.75$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241.021,97718.8%371 W · 1,606 L+8.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid-18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc2be…66b0backed Yes58c304.47$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.071833.3%6 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-7.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc8d6…017cbacked Yes28c296.93$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.223823.9%57 W · 181 L-0.8wins0.00per pick24cpaid+11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes44c282.37$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.541,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x62fa…187dbacked No7c271.62$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.844634.8%16 W · 30 L-3.2wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-11.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes53c259.2$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.9733139.6%131 W · 200 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No70c256.17$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.053,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe274…eea3backed No77c254.59$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.351855.6%10 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid+14.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed No53c252.83$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.941,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9502…ba22backed Yes56c240.83$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.4311146.8%52 W · 59 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cbe…c9e4backed No42c228.09$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.53728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-28.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No51c215.8$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.5712,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0943…1019backed Yes58c214.3$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.731070%7 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.17per pick53cpaid+20.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No12c212.95$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.067,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x12fc…ad1ebacked No56c208.6$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.93520%1 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick38cpaid-65.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcfc3…bec9backed Yes56c208.36$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.58580%4 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.37per pick43cpaid+179.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes62c204.55$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.221,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97eb…9fbebacked No55c200$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11029922.7%68 W · 231 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-40.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes54c197.36$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.3321429.4%63 W · 151 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No51c196.13$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.691,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked Yes46c183.68$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.7660121%126 W · 475 L-25.4wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-42.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0f6f…d78bbacked Yes57c174.64$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.4475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick57cpaid+20.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b11…2976backed Yes55c174.61$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.1449941.7%208 W · 291 L-2.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6688…fdcebacked Yes61c166.45$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.343842.1%16 W · 22 L+0.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No35c152.33$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.9212,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No23c151.07$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.745,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c93…8967backed No74c150$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.1544448.6%216 W · 228 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa74f…25c0backed No66c145.85$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.632458.3%14 W · 10 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick65cpaid-6.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes30c139.5$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.271,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b06…70cbbacked Yes57c135.11$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.491020%2 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-65.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9723…5bdebacked Yes43c134.36$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.853435.3%12 W · 22 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-21.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x74e0…af4bbacked No42c131.25$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.623652.8%19 W · 17 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe130…e5bfbacked Yes71c130.63$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.044562.2%28 W · 17 L+4.8wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+35%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xafb1…0329backed No59c130.41$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.538160.5%49 W · 32 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa4c5…2420backed Yes47c127.04$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.767250%36 W · 36 L+0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid+25.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3738…ed32backed Yes44c126.44$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.6920144.3%89 W · 112 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-8.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa329…db02backed No72c125.56$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.16875%6 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick75cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaba7…8ff1backed Yes36c125.13$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.8619541.5%81 W · 114 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfecd…eb97backed No42c124.66$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.962864.3%18 W · 10 L+3.6wins+0.13per pick51cpaid+67.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe712…9a10backed Yes11c123.81$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.0786847.7%414 W · 454 L+40.7wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3967…3318backed Yes60c122.63$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.011100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d0f…81aabacked No28c122.21$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.7927079.3%214 W · 56 L+52.5wins+0.19per pick60cpaid+30.3%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0x399f…e8d8backed No70c120.37$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.9110154.5%55 W · 46 L-4.3wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-11.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe4a7…a23cbacked Yes45c118.51$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.722157.1%12 W · 9 L+2.9wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+31.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9868…907ebacked Yes32c108.76$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.3334618.8%65 W · 281 L+15.2wins+0.04per pick14cpaid-15.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7ce1…c33abacked No43c108.04$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.6714961.1%91 W · 58 L+5.7wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd2be…4a4cbacked Yes53c101.73$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.382445.8%11 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-9.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2845…b637backed Yes23c101.26$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.8985330.7%262 W · 591 L+28.2wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+11.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6bf5…606bbacked Yes50c100.02$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.652147.6%10 W · 11 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-12.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3e2b…3d17backed Yes54c100$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.58762.1%54 W · 33 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick59cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x37de…f512backed Yes52c100$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.749646%228 W · 268 L+16.9wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf30a…3583backed Yes35c100$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6516936.1%61 W · 108 L-4.6wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b43…ce76backed Yes57c100$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.51145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick56cpaid-3.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1098…10a7backed Yes58c99.99$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4241733.8%141 W · 276 L-17.0wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd342…1ad9backed Yes48c99.49$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.13966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+33.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes27c98.44$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.0870133.5%235 W · 466 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc393…66f9backed Yes63c97.5$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.412932.6%42 W · 87 L-8.9wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-19.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xbd84…109dbacked Yes23c95.75$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.6322028.2%62 W · 158 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4add…6fe5backed No40c94.82$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.261,45236.8%534 W · 918 L+12.3wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b50…c9babacked Yes45c94.05$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.7445148.6%219 W · 232 L+21.0wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5245…00c4backed Yes40c92.54$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.429640.5%120 W · 176 L-7.7wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7bf0…d2b3backed Yes66c88.16$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.651225%3 W · 9 L-3.5wins-0.29per pick54cpaid-59%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x8bee…a369backed Yes58c82.65$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.76366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+40.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x254c…bc46backed Yes63c82.06$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.031833.3%6 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-33.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7745…230bbacked Yes62c80$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.08887.5%7 W · 1 L+2.9wins+0.36per pick52cpaid+88.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xff53…f5ecbacked Yes25c79.99$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.993525.7%9 W · 26 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick20cpaid-8.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbe56…700cbacked Yes49c79.79$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.79450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x302c…108abacked Yes30c78.26$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.024837.5%18 W · 30 L+3.5wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+16.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4973…5527backed Yes56c78.18$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.630046.7%140 W · 160 L-8.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-15.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xea4a…39c8backed Yes50c77.86$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.0622335.9%80 W · 143 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2347…5adfbacked Yes49c77.78$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.8211938.7%46 W · 73 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-13.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x080e…da87backed Yes32c76.5$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.2718534.6%64 W · 121 L+0.9wins0.00per pick34cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2654…b45fbacked No54c75.91$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.941,08959.4%647 W · 442 L+2.3wins0.00per pick59cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3182…4ff7backed No72c75.85$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.9714168.1%96 W · 45 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick71cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x86c2…4785backed Yes35c75.74$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.563243.8%14 W · 18 L+3.8wins+0.12per pick32cpaid+36.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x86e4…3afebacked Yes60c75$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.851464.3%9 W · 5 L+3.0wins+0.22per pick43cpaid+41.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes38c74.61$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.5274338.2%284 W · 459 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c82…f315backed No55c70.83$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.9413930.2%42 W · 97 L+0.2wins0.00per pick30cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.