Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on April 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5a5ee8a074e9f677eb1bd33188e81f6aef4937ed2eeff9fb7a04ee097b274260
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $82,990
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $79,587
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $82,990 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 242 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb666…8f47backed Yes | 0c | 15,428$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.43 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Yes | 0c | 9,079$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.58 | 191 | 23%44 W · 147 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa631…7651backed Yes | 0c | 9,037$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.09 | 102 | 25.5%26 W · 76 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed No | 56c | 970.07$545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.16 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 28c | 920.17$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.48 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 47c | 719.48$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.74 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 45c | 684.78$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.36 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 66c | 681.64$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.14 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x295b…0f1dbacked Yes | 43c | 666.6$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.65 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 41c | 608.12$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.14 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaba5…9a02backed Yes | 47c | 606.94$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.04 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 35c | 602.23$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.31 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 22c | 580.59$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.94 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 70c | 556.88$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.51 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f7…9939backed No | 55c | 550$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.82 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +53%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 28c | 459.59$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.34 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 45c | 458.11$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.06 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 34c | 433.74$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.88 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 65c | 418.54$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.68 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…62cbbacked No | 63c | 399.46$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.51 | 118 | 74.6%88 W · 30 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4901…e58abacked No | 75c | 383.8$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.98 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed Yes | 27c | 371.34$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.49 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe272…ac63backed Yes | 35c | 370.7$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.64 | 205 | 34.1%70 W · 135 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83e3…8973backed Yes | 45c | 365.64$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.78 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 334.29$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.77 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d6…017cbacked Yes | 50c | 299.47$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.38 | 238 | 23.9%57 W · 181 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 33c | 298.25$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.53 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a6…0937backed Yes | 22c | 294.38$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.12 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 29c | 271.01$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.1 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8110…c1babacked Yes | 45c | 263.96$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.92 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 69c | 248.41$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.13 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 31c | 237.5$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.63 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b33…044ebacked Yes | 36c | 228.86$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.7 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2be…66b0backed Yes | 36c | 221.51$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.98 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a49…54adbacked Yes | 55c | 208.86$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.5 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 20c | 203.87$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.38 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c82…f315backed Yes | 30c | 202.68$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.74 | 139 | 30.2%42 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d2…39b0backed Yes | 47c | 201.75$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.69 | 71 | 46.5%33 W · 38 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 24c | 199.12$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.95 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e04…d367backed No | 70c | 195.96$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.13 | 89 | 69.7%62 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 23c | 193.68$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.09 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 69c | 192.07$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.64 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc63a…26a0backed Yes | 19c | 189.21$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.85 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 16c | 185.87$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.12 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2be…4a4cbacked Yes | 39c | 182.82$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.38 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 18c | 178.93$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.94 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8682…15a9backed Yes | 59c | 176.12$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.1 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 19c | 175.55$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.63 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 42c | 171.15$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.32 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 35c | 169.22$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.56 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4973…5527backed Yes | 22c | 169.07$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.51 | 300 | 46.7%140 W · 160 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a18…364cbacked Yes | 69c | 168.45$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.4 | 89 | 46.1%41 W · 48 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a7…8a4dbacked Yes | 29c | 160.3$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.97 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 10c | 160.12$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.37 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8783…d1aabacked Yes | 31c | 159.66$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.37 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 71c | 155.02$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.2 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb62…d14fbacked Yes | 27c | 152.7$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.95 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4a7…a23cbacked Yes | 51c | 151.6$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.39 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +2.9wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 9c | 150$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1395…b329backed Yes | 51c | 144.64$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.19 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 21c | 142.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 40c | 141.5$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.23 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0943…1019backed Yes | 66c | 140.92$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.71 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0b…30aebacked Yes | 27c | 139.89$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.49 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ab8…6743backed Yes | 30c | 132.52$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.93 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 52cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9502…ba22backed Yes | 22c | 131.86$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.74 | 111 | 46.8%52 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e84…659dbacked No | 75c | 130.65$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.19 | 34 | 73.5%25 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 20c | 128.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.17 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaba7…8ff1backed Yes | 46c | 125.16$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.05 | 195 | 41.5%81 W · 114 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3f…af73backed Yes | 33c | 124.51$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.68 | 198 | 48%95 W · 103 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e18…064cbacked Yes | 54c | 123.58$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.78 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…37e0backed Yes | 43c | 121.15$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.11 | 310 | 29.7%92 W · 218 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 52c | 119.08$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.99 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62fa…187dbacked No | 32c | 117.88$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.42 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x399f…e8d8backed No | 64c | 116.74$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.67 | 101 | 54.5%55 W · 46 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4f0…22e0backed No | 32c | 116.25$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.41 | 70 | 21.4%15 W · 55 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27dd…b696backed Yes | 35c | 116.05$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.73 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 66c | 114.23$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.46 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 37c | 114.07$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.57 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5944…a957backed No | 72c | 112.19$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.47 | 39 | 76.9%30 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…5b28backed No | 68c | 111.87$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.25 | 265 | 66.4%176 W · 89 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…3587backed No | 79c | 110.93$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 273 | 76.6%209 W · 64 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 76cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 19c | 110.39$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.47 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfedf…ee2abacked Yes | 44c | 107.9$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.19 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea2…e97fbacked Yes | 17c | 107.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.34 | 350 | 18%63 W · 287 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x254c…bc46backed Yes | 29c | 107.3$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd342…1ad9backed Yes | 45c | 105.75$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.23 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed No | 37c | 105.11$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.75 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 27c | 103.95$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.02 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked Yes | 21c | 103.88$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.39 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1411…6b02backed Yes | 22c | 103.08$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.06 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd84…109dbacked Yes | 32c | 102.47$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.19 | 220 | 28.2%62 W · 158 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed No | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.65 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…c61bbacked No | 61c | 99.7$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.61 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb4…695fbacked No | 54c | 99.59$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.07 | 57 | 73.7%42 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb31d…b920backed Yes | 40c | 97.36$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.51 | 180 | 35%63 W · 117 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 54c | 96.77$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.29 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8208…a737backed No | 74c | 96.47$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.62 | 226 | 75.7%171 W · 55 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…476ebacked Yes | 55c | 96.06$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.74 | 163 | 36.2%59 W · 104 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0198…133bbacked No | 39c | 95.62$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.18 | 184 | 52.2%96 W · 88 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on April 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on April 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C or higher on April 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.