Premier League · resolved market
Will Derby County FC vs. Leeds United FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x80bfc487df4c7cbbb789e454a3b886738c70a7f0474a0d3a7f78ce88a012efc8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,506
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,013
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,506 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe09…7acebacked No | 70c | 2,778$1,945 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$833.36 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.8wins | -0.21per pick | 60cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb0…5012backed Yes | 15c | 2,100$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.96 | 197 | 29.4%58 W · 139 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfed7…e405backed Yes | 24c | 1,999$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.76 | 116 | 45.7%53 W · 63 L | -8.1wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x91c8…753dbacked Yes | 17c | 1,892$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.69 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 74c | 1,065$793 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272 | 2,558 | 47.7%1,221 W · 1,337 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 12c | 867.88$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.43 | 90 | 35.6%32 W · 58 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Yes | 26c | 789.54$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.53 | 857 | 48.5%416 W · 441 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69db…283abacked Yes | 17c | 504.23$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.62 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -7.0wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa42b…41cfbacked Yes | 32c | 468.75$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yes | 7c | 425.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.79 | 773 | 36.4%281 W · 492 L | -10.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a2…9874backed Yes | 26c | 400.05$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 197 | 32.5%64 W · 133 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc579…21cdbacked Yes | 27c | 371.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x782e…b317backed Yes | 30c | 332.7$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.81 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe328…f4a3backed Yes | 10c | 329.5$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.78 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +3.6wins | +0.13per pick | 28cpaid | +56.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf91e…7e0bbacked Yes | 31c | 322.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 32c | 312.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 196 | 54.6%107 W · 89 L | -10.3wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ad…fabcbacked No | 67c | 299$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.67 | 52 | 80.8%42 W · 10 L | +13.0wins | +0.25per pick | 56cpaid | +57%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Yes | 33c | 266.67$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 827 | 63%521 W · 306 L | +113.2wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 75c | 264.64$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.07 | 4,768 | 41.8%1,993 W · 2,775 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6b…5263backed Yes | 20c | 247.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0775…eca8backed Yes | 25c | 197$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 174 | 28.2%49 W · 125 L | -11.3wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 75c | 183.6$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.41 | 966 | 45.4%439 W · 527 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes | 22c | 174.13$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.47 | 423 | 24.3%103 W · 320 L | -36.4wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -47%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e4…22ccbacked Yes | 28c | 150$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.83 | 186 | 46.8%87 W · 99 L | +11.2wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0e…c6a8backed Yes | 31c | 141.94$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +4.4wins | +0.21per pick | 41cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Yes | 22c | 139.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.21 | 181 | 39.2%71 W · 110 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 24c | 132.19$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.13 | 1,264 | 33.7%426 W · 838 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x604d…4608backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 84 | 38.1%32 W · 52 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,283 | 48%616 W · 667 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa134…3ba2backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d7…ba47backed No | 76c | 99.97$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.99 | 134 | 47%63 W · 71 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed Yes | 33c | 94.28$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.11 | 120 | 48.3%58 W · 62 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb9…1591backed No | 77c | 91.37$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.61 | 112 | 55.4%62 W · 50 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae3…493abacked Yes | 13c | 91.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1294…9dbabacked Yes | 31c | 89.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.51 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Yes | 24c | 84.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 356 | 61.2%218 W · 138 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82bb…c86cbacked Yes | 25c | 80.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked No | 74c | 79.87$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…ac49backed Yes | 33c | 75.94$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 44 | 15.9%7 W · 37 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30ec…c276backed Yes | 32c | 75$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c90…3f67backed Yes | 24c | 70$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x588b…8593backed Yes | 30c | 66.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 101 | 30.7%31 W · 70 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a16…de20backed Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb745…981bbacked Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Yes | 30c | 56.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 390 | 52.6%205 W · 185 L | +19.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5404…5e58backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 126 | 39.7%50 W · 76 L | +7.9wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca94…838fbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.6wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec8…397bbacked No | 68c | 44$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0178…3f7abacked Yes | 36c | 43.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +5.6wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1488…0672backed No | 75c | 42$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…d0e5backed No | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 141 | 47.5%67 W · 74 L | -8.4wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd2…e8e8backed No | 71c | 39.33$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.3 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.5wins | -0.21per pick | 50cpaid | -34%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xacd0…e0f5backed No | 77c | 38.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 75cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa64b…1e4bbacked Yes | 33c | 35.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed No | 70c | 33.47$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.04 | 734 | 58.6%430 W · 304 L | +47.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9236…da58backed Yes | 37c | 31.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6834…67a5backed No | 78c | 31.17$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -6.0wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 73c | 28.64$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 1,163 | 57.4%667 W · 496 L | +40.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9f…e23bbacked No | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x344c…4eb5backed No | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.35per pick | 75cpaid | -47%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e47…e4b3backed No | 72c | 21.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3a…47debacked No | 79c | 15.29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.14 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Derby County FC vs. Leeds United FC end in a draw?this page
- Will Derby County FC win on 2026-01-11?No won
- Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-01-11?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.