TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BC.Game Esports (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group Stage

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
TheMongolzof TheMongolz, BC.Game Esports
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$293,971
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$315,229

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $293,971 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 147 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x21ec…5348backed BC.Game Esports19c30,000$5,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,70072453.7%389 W · 335 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc257…358ebacked BC.Game Esports19c30,000$5,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,699.9539249%192 W · 200 L+0.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed BC.Game Esports20c16,689$3,356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,355.82,06641.5%858 W · 1,208 L-49.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed BC.Game Esports19c12,500$2,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,399.9967041.8%280 W · 390 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked TheMongolz80c11,680$9,344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,335.9476058%441 W · 319 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-1.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x183f…85e3backed BC.Game Esports20c9,908$1,982 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,981.5123848.3%115 W · 123 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-2.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed BC.Game Esports4c9,662$386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$386.4822049.1%108 W · 112 L+0.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf64f…9f48backed BC.Game Esports4c7,133$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.324325.6%11 W · 32 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-8.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb64…bfdcbacked BC.Game Esports20c6,271$1,251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,251.2718341%75 W · 108 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-9.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x44d6…9858backed BC.Game Esports19c6,000$1,140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,139.95944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.12per pick32cpaid+13.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed BC.Game Esports19c5,000$950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95035153.8%189 W · 162 L+12.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a63…fc03backed BC.Game Esports14c4,937$707 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$707.4642142%177 W · 244 L+0.6wins0.00per pick42cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked BC.Game Esports17c4,589$777 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$776.851,05449%516 W · 538 L+38.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7645…3117backed BC.Game Esports18c4,032$726 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$725.6871645.9%329 W · 387 L-3.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed BC.Game Esports19c4,000$760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7601,41133.7%475 W · 936 L+42.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc463…9a2fbacked BC.Game Esports20c4,000$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8009047.8%43 W · 47 L-0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid+8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed BC.Game Esports18c3,897$694 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$694.2188746.7%414 W · 473 L+8.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1570…1404backed BC.Game Esports5c3,772$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.62835.7%10 W · 18 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-9.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked BC.Game Esports16c3,679$607 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$606.821,61145.4%731 W · 880 L+30.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda34…01a8backed BC.Game Esports19c3,399$635 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$635.2911633.6%39 W · 77 L-0.3wins0.00per pick34cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe705…f910backed BC.Game Esports19c3,027$575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$575.13751.4%19 W · 18 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed BC.Game Esports4c3,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12064552.9%341 W · 304 L+27.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+9.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1d5c…4f26backed BC.Game Esports20c3,000$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60035236.4%128 W · 224 L-1.4wins0.00per pick37cpaid+3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7951…bb41backed BC.Game Esports19c3,000$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$579.9997040.7%395 W · 575 L+12.4wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc1ae…f001backed BC.Game Esports19c2,930$557 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$556.711637.9%44 W · 72 L+5.2wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+11.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked BC.Game Esports19c2,829$547 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$547.031,25646.7%587 W · 669 L+17.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x91fe…cfd7backed TheMongolz79c2,491$1,968 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$523.055444.4%24 W · 30 L-5.1wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-14.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked BC.Game Esports10c2,469$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.055,51147%2,590 W · 2,921 L+42.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x36f9…cec7backed TheMongolz80c2,450$1,960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$490425%1 W · 3 L-1.8wins-0.44per pick69cpaid-68.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9d8a…5201backed BC.Game Esports4c2,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8055236.2%200 W · 352 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b49…0397backed BC.Game Esports19c2,000$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3804247.6%20 W · 22 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed BC.Game Esports20c1,897$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$369.8787047.9%417 W · 453 L+15.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-14%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf4ad…d00bbacked BC.Game Esports3c1,685$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.5614820.3%30 W · 118 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-28.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x55d9…832cbacked BC.Game Esports19c1,669$316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$315.679148.4%44 W · 47 L+5.6wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+7.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked BC.Game Esports16c1,611$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.7319030.5%58 W · 132 L-12.1wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-26.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x78de…b08bbacked TheMongolz80c1,611$1,289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$322.181747.1%8 W · 9 L-2.2wins-0.13per pick60cpaid-31%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa557…6e77backed BC.Game Esports19c1,584$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303.5325248.8%123 W · 129 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+0.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked BC.Game Esports16c1,566$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.387,92550.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L+179.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked BC.Game Esports2c1,492$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.793,09648.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L+135.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-5.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc086…8128backed BC.Game Esports9c1,240$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.7914748.3%71 W · 76 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-23.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x62a1…d53ebacked BC.Game Esports21c1,223$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.4217930.2%54 W · 125 L-10.8wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-21%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfcd4…39b8backed BC.Game Esports7c1,087$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.956637.9%25 W · 41 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick40cpaid+1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed BC.Game Esports20c1,066$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.24,03848.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L-23.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa40e…7145backed BC.Game Esports5c1,037$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.8210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa664…f849backed TheMongolz80c1,000$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20028738%109 W · 178 L-6.9wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x26ac…a735backed BC.Game Esports20c981.51$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.324429.5%72 W · 172 L-0.3wins0.00per pick30cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1064…f153backed BC.Game Esports20c952$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.416149.1%79 W · 82 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f03…9897backed TheMongolz80c940$752 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1882100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x314c…975fbacked TheMongolz80c908.13$727 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.635971.2%42 W · 17 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick68cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed BC.Game Esports20c833.94$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.65,83037.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L+79.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd88…dadbbacked TheMongolz80c824$659 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.864852%337 W · 311 L+10.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4b0e…528dbacked BC.Game Esports3c721.63$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.841827.8%5 W · 13 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-23.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x994d…3d8dbacked TheMongolz79c691.18$546 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.1552834.3%181 W · 347 L-6.4wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-13.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffd…7821backed BC.Game Esports14c665.98$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.5578043.7%341 W · 439 L-21.5wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-20.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xca82…fcfebacked TheMongolz80c660.67$529 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.1314971.8%107 W · 42 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6033…8a83backed BC.Game Esports4c655.4$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.8215133.1%50 W · 101 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b87…6a47backed TheMongolz80c617.5$494 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.513059.2%77 W · 53 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd179…74adbacked TheMongolz80c500.04$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.0119351.8%100 W · 93 L-5.4wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbaac…ff10backed TheMongolz80c500$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1002263.6%14 W · 8 L-1.9wins-0.09per pick72cpaid-14.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7218…8b34backed TheMongolz80c500$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1009268.5%63 W · 29 L+5.5wins+0.06per pick62cpaid+9.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc011…0a62backed TheMongolz80c500$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10016354%88 W · 75 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7809…64ccbacked BC.Game Esports19c500$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$956541.5%27 W · 38 L+6.2wins+0.10per pick32cpaid+19.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9079…420cbacked TheMongolz80c500$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10010153.5%54 W · 47 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x95ee…e28cbacked TheMongolz79c493.7$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.688848.9%43 W · 45 L-5.8wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-8.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed BC.Game Esports21c477.17$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.9478639.4%310 W · 476 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d94…e9c2backed BC.Game Esports21c453.62$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.263135.5%11 W · 20 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-15%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x64e8…7819backed BC.Game Esports19c449.99$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.3654032.4%175 W · 365 L-7.9wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x06fc…4fb6backed TheMongolz80c440$352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8811450.9%58 W · 56 L-6.2wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-9.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9e9a…a9a8backed BC.Game Esports19c400$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$764459.1%26 W · 18 L+2.5wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+19.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed BC.Game Esports7c344.42$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.754,06450.9%2,067 W · 1,997 L+69.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x46ef…5bb2backed BC.Game Esports9c330.8$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.46520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-53.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e0b…4e72backed TheMongolz79c330.52$261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.4120059%118 W · 82 L-0.3wins0.00per pick59cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5867…2e20backed BC.Game Esports5c310.24$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1421636.1%78 W · 138 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-15.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3eeb…c387backed TheMongolz80c300$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60520%1 W · 4 L-2.6wins-0.52per pick72cpaid-75%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa9e3…cb10backed TheMongolz80c300$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$603860.5%23 W · 15 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x91ac…5ff3backed BC.Game Esports20c300$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6077146%355 W · 416 L+0.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c34…a023backed TheMongolz80c300$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$601376.9%10 W · 3 L+2.3wins+0.18per pick59cpaid+39.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6c1a…bf0abacked TheMongolz79c299.99$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$638853.4%47 W · 41 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xecd4…897ebacked BC.Game Esports17c299.95$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.992540%10 W · 15 L-1.9wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-26.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed BC.Game Esports5c299.9$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.916,48042.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L-79.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked TheMongolz79c296.22$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.213354.5%18 W · 15 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-11.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed BC.Game Esports15c289.23$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.022,43444.6%1,085 W · 1,349 L-64.0wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe757…c161backed BC.Game Esports6c274.66$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.481936.8%7 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-20.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x133a…f9d1backed BC.Game Esports6c270.51$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.6139237.2%146 W · 246 L-0.5wins0.00per pick37cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc22c…1a73backed BC.Game Esports11c256.49$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.63425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-57.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6ab…8c2ebacked TheMongolz79c249.97$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.491540%6 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-32.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe4e5…d034backed BC.Game Esports19c237.13$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.0513044.6%58 W · 72 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4238…3734backed BC.Game Esports20c221.42$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.513445.5%61 W · 73 L+10.4wins+0.08per pick38cpaid+16.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x812a…73edbacked BC.Game Esports18c217.05$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.0948319%92 W · 391 L-65.4wins-0.14per pick33cpaid-46.4%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x4ec3…34a7backed BC.Game Esports17c215.41$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.341,10950.5%560 W · 549 L-3.0wins0.00per pick51cpaid-7.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb775…36f5backed TheMongolz79c204.37$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.9222757.3%130 W · 97 L+10.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+15.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed BC.Game Esports19c200$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3860848%292 W · 316 L+7.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x016c…df21backed TheMongolz80c200$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.20per pick57cpaid-51.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc5ad…bda1backed TheMongolz80c200$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$404052.5%21 W · 19 L-3.5wins-0.09per pick61cpaid-16.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7129…4517backed BC.Game Esports20c199.92$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.981,07637.6%405 W · 671 L+34.0wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+10.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb0d6…f047backed BC.Game Esports18c195.74$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.23812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.3wins-0.29per pick41cpaid-57.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4048…d4adbacked BC.Game Esports20c191.35$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.484820.8%10 W · 38 L-8.2wins-0.17per pick38cpaid-54.9%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x8f69…7df1backed TheMongolz78c176.28$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.7875450.5%381 W · 373 L+17.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x47e1…c2babacked BC.Game Esports10c167.86$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.1247146.7%220 W · 251 L+14.5wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x37d7…f131backed BC.Game Esports20c147.57$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.0133451.5%172 W · 162 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick52cpaid+0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.