Movies · resolved market
Will "Scream 7" 3rd Weekend Box Office be less than 7.5m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x817afee39abacbcd8fd9b0ef5351bfafd8d9d32bf82addebd0a13eb54b145401
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,585
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,585 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x74e0…fabdbacked Yes | 62c | 384$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.85 | 285 | 24.2%69 W · 216 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 42c | 377.21$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.8 | 231 | 30.3%70 W · 161 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7a…1eecbacked Yes | 49c | 300$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.5 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad70…4ccfbacked Yes | 18c | 216.9$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.37 | 108 | 14.8%16 W · 92 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33f8…c5e4backed No | 66c | 209.49$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.72 | 294 | 23.5%69 W · 225 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -43%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 69c | 200$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5502…d440backed No | 34c | 200$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x49f7…f566backed No | 32c | 200$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.12 | 55 | 72.7%40 W · 15 L | +10.8wins | +0.20per pick | 53cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xdff8…3c8bbacked Yes | 63c | 199.99$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.99 | 72 | 41.7%30 W · 42 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed No | 46c | 184.26$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.24 | 264 | 31.1%82 W · 182 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe78…c533backed Yes | 33c | 179$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.07 | 297 | 35.7%106 W · 191 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 49c | 129$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.08 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x52bd…1a8abacked No | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…7279backed No | 50c | 89.95$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.95 | 138 | 20.3%28 W · 110 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad4…fa20backed No | 37c | 80$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x983a…ca05backed Yes | 59c | 80$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 32c | 79.36$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.78 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 21c | 77.15$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.94 | 133 | 33.1%44 W · 89 L | -10.3wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 21c | 60.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 92 | 26.1%24 W · 68 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 36c | 55.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 208 | 41.8%87 W · 121 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8085…ea17backed No | 47c | 45.47$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.14 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb941…1619backed Yes | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba3…27e2backed No | 39c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x959e…0315backed No | 39c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.41per pick | 39cpaid | +128.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x52e4…7d32backed Yes | 59c | 33.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -3.7wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…5bc1backed No | 37c | 33.12$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.87 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 79c | 31.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7cf…d696backed Yes | 69c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 39c | 29.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.99 | 230 | 41.7%96 W · 134 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9400…4f20backed Yes | 50c | 25.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52a8…83f2backed Yes | 70c | 15.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Scream 7" 3rd Weekend Box Office be less than 7.5m?this page
- Will "Scream 7" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 7.5m and 8m?No won
- Will "Scream 7" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 8.5m and 9m?Yes won
- Will "Scream 7" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 8m and 8.5m?No won
- Will "Scream 7" 3rd Weekend Box Office be greater than 9m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.