Movies · resolved market
Will "Scream 7" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 8.5m and 9m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9ca3941338cb1bb8c70cd7e428b58af691ed749d60c64f3c9c6bdca32312a13b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,136
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,136 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x33f8…c5e4backed Yes | 20c | 2,355$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,894.97 | 294 | 23.5%69 W · 225 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -43%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1920…a04ebacked Yes | 29c | 2,125$626 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,498.56 | 126 | 31%39 W · 87 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 73c | 1,185$863 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.22 | 187 | 46%86 W · 101 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -20%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x955c…990fbacked Yes | 53c | 1,020$542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$477.57 | 71 | 57.7%41 W · 30 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…93eebacked Yes | 29c | 464.88$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.94 | 296 | 42.6%126 W · 170 L | +22.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…fabdbacked Yes | 38c | 370.31$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.34 | 285 | 24.2%69 W · 216 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1d2…0bc0backed Yes | 39c | 251.92$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.2 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 59c | 229.34$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.58 | 47 | 6.4%3 W · 44 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 13c | 215.11$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.92 | 264 | 31.1%82 W · 182 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe78…c533backed Yes | 64c | 210$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.5 | 297 | 35.7%106 W · 191 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed No | 55c | 203.83$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.44 | 134 | 40.3%54 W · 80 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 71c | 197.45$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.22 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -5.7wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 50c | 194.18$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.48 | 231 | 30.3%70 W · 161 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…7279backed Yes | 14c | 162.36$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.36 | 138 | 20.3%28 W · 110 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc67f…dac8backed Yes | 41c | 156$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.04 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 10c | 149$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.83 | 211 | 9.5%20 W · 191 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52bd…1a8abacked No | 78c | 140$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.8 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x478e…a576backed Yes | 80c | 121.48$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.59 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -3.6wins | -0.15per pick | 57cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8085…ea17backed Yes | 50c | 114.89$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.01 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 10c | 109.36$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.3 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21b1…b066backed Yes | 72c | 103.74$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.79 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 37c | 102$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.76 | 137 | 35%48 W · 89 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed No | 56c | 100.12$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.04 | 328 | 14.9%49 W · 279 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49f7…f566backed Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.3 | 55 | 72.7%40 W · 15 L | +10.8wins | +0.20per pick | 53cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 62c | 98$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.24 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6395…6735backed Yes | 39c | 91.01$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.89 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1726…1ad4backed No | 70c | 82$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 66cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bcb…b296backed No | 53c | 74.37$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.71 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -4.7wins | -0.27per pick | 57cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 51c | 71.09$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 160 | 15.6%25 W · 135 L | -26.1wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x72a8…c016backed Yes | 33c | 58.32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.13 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b26…cf9abacked No | 49c | 57.53$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.44 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 69c | 49.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.67 | 192 | 40.6%78 W · 114 L | -20.3wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x662b…eb47backed No | 80c | 44.82$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.78 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41d9…1c39backed No | 52c | 44.28$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf884…0364backed Yes | 68c | 41.86$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.58 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 60cpaid | -37%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad70…4ccfbacked No | 48c | 40.13$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 108 | 14.8%16 W · 92 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 66c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.46 | 130 | 34.6%45 W · 85 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x19db…7636backed Yes | 51c | 39.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.06 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x252b…dfc9backed No | 52c | 38.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1085…173abacked No | 53c | 37.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dec…cefabacked No | 55c | 35.56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8525…d2c6backed Yes | 49c | 34.72$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.03 | 138 | 51.4%71 W · 67 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x610d…6c37backed Yes | 45c | 29.87$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.49 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94a5…4eb8backed No | 49c | 29.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2156…b327backed Yes | 51c | 29.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +65.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 64c | 29.21$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.57 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 56c | 25.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 143 | 37.1%53 W · 90 L | -10.4wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52a8…83f2backed Yes | 60c | 25.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b7b…173bbacked No | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e39…8e7abacked Yes | 67c | 23.86$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…60e1backed Yes | 49c | 22.85$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.56 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9739…159fbacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 121 | 4.1%5 W · 116 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -85%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc48…e792backed Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 55c | 19.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 208 | 41.8%87 W · 121 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Scream 7" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 8.5m and 9m?this page
- Will "Scream 7" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 7.5m and 8m?No won
- Will "Scream 7" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 8m and 8.5m?No won
- Will "Scream 7" 3rd Weekend Box Office be greater than 9m?No won
- Will "Scream 7" 3rd Weekend Box Office be less than 7.5m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.