Movies · resolved market
Will "Scream 7" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 8m and 8.5m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9e741c858e37f047f48a1d354fdeb285be562cebb864ff0894931d66f6be162b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,339
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,339 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed Yes | 72c | 2,208$1,581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,581.14 | 134 | 40.3%54 W · 80 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5502…d440backed Yes | 42c | 1,001$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.45 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 60c | 873.14$527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$526.96 | 328 | 14.9%49 W · 279 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6395…6735backed Yes | 39c | 667.44$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.13 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed Yes | 55c | 453.18$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.25 | 94 | 34%32 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 36c | 429.34$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.73 | 167 | 41.9%70 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked Yes | 50c | 427.16$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.85 | 195 | 32.8%64 W · 131 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe78…c533backed Yes | 26c | 380.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.17 | 297 | 35.7%106 W · 191 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9934…6078backed No | 66c | 300$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 37c | 281.33$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.1 | 47 | 6.4%3 W · 44 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…fabdbacked Yes | 51c | 279.42$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143 | 285 | 24.2%69 W · 216 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8085…ea17backed No | 46c | 246.23$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.08 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 48c | 236.95$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.29 | 87 | 52.9%46 W · 41 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x955c…990fbacked No | 52c | 228.75$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.73 | 71 | 57.7%41 W · 30 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 37c | 215.38$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.57 | 264 | 31.1%82 W · 182 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 36c | 212.23$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.86 | 70 | 20%14 W · 56 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 21c | 202$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.58 | 210 | 9.5%20 W · 190 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 48c | 181.47$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.8 | 61 | 27.9%17 W · 44 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc67f…dac8backed Yes | 54c | 156$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.06 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2cf…3ff1backed Yes | 27c | 155.44$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 46 | 23.9%11 W · 35 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc0…8e67backed Yes | 50c | 150$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24de…83cbbacked No | 74c | 150$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…93eebacked Yes | 51c | 146.08$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.9 | 296 | 42.6%126 W · 170 L | +22.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb51…f32cbacked Yes | 54c | 133.24$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.65 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 47c | 120$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.8 | 133 | 33.1%44 W · 89 L | -10.3wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 57c | 102$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.64 | 137 | 35%48 W · 89 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52bd…1a8abacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 38c | 98.93$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.74 | 160 | 15.6%25 W · 135 L | -26.1wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x662b…eb47backed No | 49c | 95.5$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.71 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 56c | 83.8$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.07 | 231 | 30.3%70 W · 161 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa1…d4c8backed Yes | 46c | 83.57$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.44 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 29c | 79.34$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.92 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 63c | 69.95$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.62 | 208 | 41.8%87 W · 121 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad70…4ccfbacked Yes | 29c | 69.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 108 | 14.8%16 W · 92 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…7279backed Yes | 15c | 68.54$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 138 | 20.3%28 W · 110 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dec…cefabacked Yes | 31c | 65.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.19 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 44c | 61.83$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.64 | 230 | 41.7%96 W · 134 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf30f…a161backed No | 53c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 44c | 59$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.74 | 164 | 53.7%88 W · 76 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbeca…e32abacked Yes | 77c | 51.92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 92 | 26.1%24 W · 68 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce1…b2a8backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bcb…b296backed Yes | 56c | 46.46$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.93 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -4.7wins | -0.27per pick | 57cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked Yes | 43c | 45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -9.7wins | -0.27per pick | 46cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 67c | 43$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.07 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed No | 49c | 39.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.39 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf5ec…ab2bbacked Yes | 45c | 34.87$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb70b…6087backed Yes | 66c | 32.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 116 | 33.6%39 W · 77 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf11b…3fe3backed Yes | 61c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02fe…5af0backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed No | 58c | 26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 187 | 46%86 W · 101 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -20%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bbc…1d9ebacked No | 67c | 22.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +16%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b24…01abbacked No | 50c | 20.98$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.49 | 98 | 51%50 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb941…1619backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf48c…8ec6backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +62%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9739…159fbacked Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 121 | 4.1%5 W · 116 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -85%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4272…10c2backed Yes | 61c | 17.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5011…6237backed Yes | 58c | 17.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 64c | 16.28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.81 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e47…bdbfbacked Yes | 68c | 14.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Scream 7" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 8m and 8.5m?this page
- Will "Scream 7" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 7.5m and 8m?No won
- Will "Scream 7" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 8.5m and 9m?Yes won
- Will "Scream 7" 3rd Weekend Box Office be greater than 9m?No won
- Will "Scream 7" 3rd Weekend Box Office be less than 7.5m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.