TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Kevin Durant: Points O/U 26.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,178

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,178 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa965…3565backed No46c1,500$695 inWon+$804.991,91145.4%868 W · 1,043 L+22.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x339a…1eaebacked Yes54c1,137$612 inLost-$612.381,75961.7%1,085 W · 674 L+127.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x98e5…91f9backed No45c441.01$200 inWon+$241.011957.9%11 W · 8 L+2.6wins+0.14per pick44cpaid+30.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xefd1…c520backed Yes53c188.91$100 inLost-$1008654.7%47 W · 39 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x22a4…63ebbacked Yes54c168.95$91 inLost-$91.2392058%534 W · 386 L+10.4wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57a6…bca4backed Yes53c165.09$87 inLost-$87.51540%6 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-22.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed No44c151.36$67 inWon+$84.85,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa528…2499backed Yes55c105.58$58 inLost-$58.0783158.1%483 W · 348 L+18.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xab8c…17eebacked Yes58c85.95$50 inLost-$50825%2 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-54.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xedf7…8f79backed No42c67.48$28 inWon+$39.141,39348.3%673 W · 720 L+19.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5767…8cc1backed No49c60$30 inWon+$30.411,08442.4%460 W · 624 L-48.6wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-8.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed Yes54c51.22$28 inLost-$27.6697049.5%480 W · 490 L-11.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe299…761bbacked Yes52c48.12$25 inLost-$2531540.3%127 W · 188 L-15.4wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-9.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7bf3…fe8fbacked Yes58c43$25 inLost-$24.941225%3 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-49.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Yes56c35.5$20 inLost-$19.831,43347.2%676 W · 757 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb496…fd45backed Yes58c34.48$20 inLost-$2010135.6%36 W · 65 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7322…bccebacked Yes61c32.79$20 inLost-$207360.3%44 W · 29 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-11.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5a46…69c4backed Yes47c31.91$15 inLost-$154139%16 W · 25 L+0.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid+54.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa559…6dbbbacked No42c30$13 inWon+$17.488057.5%506 W · 374 L+34.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+2.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2b46…684dbacked No46c27.55$13 inWon+$14.881,64547.5%782 W · 863 L+40.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Yes56c26.68$15 inLost-$14.824,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd0c…282cbacked Yes51c25$13 inLost-$12.754845.8%22 W · 26 L-4.3wins-0.09per pick55cpaid-16.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfe93…8d0ebacked No47c24$11 inWon+$12.7232866.5%218 W · 110 L+15.4wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3a51…b2b6backed Yes56c22.93$13 inLost-$12.8489853.1%477 W · 421 L+21.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 32 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.