TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Luka Dončić: Points O/U 30.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$6,030

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,030 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe401…7b88backed No47c708.36$333 inLost-$332.935,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd23…e31fbacked No50c544$272 inLost-$27247354.8%259 W · 214 L+14.2wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x224a…d4bfbacked Yes50c544$272 inWon+$2729100%9 W · 0 L+3.5wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+76.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x0020…4610backed Yes53c471.7$250 inWon+$221.74854.2%26 W · 22 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x41d4…a401backed Yes53c331.56$175 inWon+$156.564242.9%18 W · 24 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-17.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No47c149.49$70 inLost-$70.424,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd31a…28f5backed Yes53c148.73$79 inWon+$69.734949%24 W · 25 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc42c…42a1backed No49c148$73 inLost-$72.9643052.3%225 W · 205 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7216…0d67backed No48c104.98$50 inLost-$50.3918339.3%72 W · 111 L-13.3wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-18.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed No47c100$47 inLost-$472,65749.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L+42.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe299…761bbacked Yes52c96.15$50 inWon+$46.1531540.3%127 W · 188 L-15.4wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-9.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5767…8cc1backed No46c69.93$32 inLost-$32.441,08442.4%460 W · 624 L-48.6wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-8.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x610d…6c37backed Yes52c58.64$30 inWon+$28.154557.8%26 W · 19 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+2.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a76…b30fbacked Yes53c56.6$30 inWon+$26.621642.1%91 W · 125 L-15.6wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-15.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf1b5…ac7ebacked Yes55c55.09$30 inWon+$24.67366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.25per pick42cpaid+32.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d54…a756backed Yes52c50$26 inWon+$24.075942.4%25 W · 34 L-4.8wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-18.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2696…c031backed Yes50c50$25 inWon+$256149.2%30 W · 31 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd454…b47fbacked No50c44.99$22 inLost-$22.527251.1%139 W · 133 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa559…6dbbbacked No46c35.18$16 inLost-$16.188057.5%506 W · 374 L+34.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+2.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed No48c35.08$17 inLost-$16.841,78653.2%950 W · 836 L+52.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa965…3565backed No45c34.61$16 inLost-$15.681,91145.4%868 W · 1,043 L+22.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed No48c29.49$14 inLost-$14.161,43347.2%676 W · 757 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43eb…336dbacked Yes54c22.22$12 inWon+$10.225971.2%42 W · 17 L+10.7wins+0.18per pick53cpaid+35.8%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xe1b4…c865backed Yes52c21.15$11 inWon+$10.151855.6%10 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+8.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb3bd…c085backed Yes54c20.37$11 inWon+$9.372560%15 W · 10 L+1.9wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+15.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 32 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.