NBA · resolved market
Alperen Sengün: Points O/U 19.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0059f8447c3917b29b8f67d1d868113853c652165c136faa457b50001106e33e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,785
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,221
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,785 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x98e5…91f9backed Yes | 3c | 3,358$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x324c…93d9backed Yes | 1c | 999.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 98 | 1%1 W · 97 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -49%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd529…f0d4backed No | 69c | 952.65$655 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.08 | 1,085 | 63.6%690 W · 395 L | +86.7wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +13%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b9…4031backed Yes | 31c | 806.45$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe17…dd5cbacked Yes | 33c | 497.86$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.51 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.26per pick | 34cpaid | +62.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 8c | 351.9$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.95 | 258 | 40.7%105 W · 153 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64ad…bde6backed Yes | 39c | 255.12$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 97 | 49.5%48 W · 49 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6e8…ed04backed Yes | 42c | 230.99$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.88 | 63 | 42.9%27 W · 36 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 65c | 184.31$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.3 | 970 | 49.5%480 W · 490 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6c2…8f23backed Yes | 31c | 109.68$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8087…6d7abacked Yes | 39c | 72.97$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.23 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No | 67c | 66$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.02 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabdd…2d96backed No | 68c | 59.99$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 602 | 67.3%405 W · 197 L | +46.2wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed No | 58c | 47.12$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 908 | 63.9%580 W · 328 L | +80.6wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf32c…ff08backed Yes | 37c | 45.95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked No | 68c | 33$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 328 | 66.5%218 W · 110 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a37…6c95backed Yes | 34c | 32.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa528…2499backed No | 64c | 30.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.14 | 831 | 58.1%483 W · 348 L | +18.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed No | 67c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 1,433 | 47.2%676 W · 757 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x376d…bc1bbacked No | 66c | 22.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 98 | 69.4%68 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 32 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Alperen Sengün: Points O/U 19.5this page
- Alperen Sengün: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- Alperen Sengün: Rebounds O/U 8.5No won
- Amen Thompson: Points O/U 18.5Yes won
- Amen Thompson: Rebounds O/U 7.5Yes won
- Austin Reaves: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
- Austin Reaves: Points O/U 20.5No won
- Austin Reaves: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Deandre Ayton: Points O/U 9.5No won
- Deandre Ayton: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
- Kevin Durant: Points O/U 26.5No won
- Kevin Durant: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Lakers vs. RocketsLakers won
- Lakers vs. Rockets: 1H MoneylineRockets won
- Lakers vs. Rockets: 1H O/U 115.5Under won
- Lakers vs. Rockets: 1H O/U 116.5Under won
- Lakers vs. Rockets: O/U 223.5Under won
- Lakers vs. Rockets: O/U 224.5Under won
- Lakers vs. Rockets: O/U 225.5Under won
- Lakers vs. Rockets: O/U 226.5Under won
- Lakers vs. Rockets: O/U 227.5Under won
- LeBron James: Assists O/U 6.5No won
- LeBron James: Points O/U 18.5No won
- LeBron James: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Luka Dončić: Assists O/U 7.5No won
- Luka Dončić: Points O/U 30.5Yes won
- Luka Dončić: Rebounds O/U 7.5No won
- Rui Hachimura: Rebounds O/U 2.5Yes won
- Spread: Rockets (-1.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Rockets (-2.5)Lakers won
- Tari Eason: Points O/U 9.5No won
- Tari Eason: Rebounds O/U 5.5Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.