TailMyPicks
Market

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Rockets (-2.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Lakersof Rockets, Lakers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$385,266

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $385,266 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 270 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x93ab…9723backed Rockets45c65,999$29,960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,959.7560351.4%310 W · 293 L+16.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf19d…276fbacked Lakers57c54,632$31,140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,491.8523147.6%110 W · 121 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Lakers51c23,263$11,830 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,432.931,91549.3%944 W · 971 L+19.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf668…5c69backed Lakers57c21,330$12,158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,171.8436359.8%217 W · 146 L+23.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+14.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed Lakers50c17,370$8,685 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,684.821,04447.5%496 W · 548 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ccf…6ed9backed Rockets50c16,560$8,280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,280616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.0wins-0.34per pick51cpaid-67.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xbddf…c684backed Lakers51c15,000$7,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,349.9372648.3%351 W · 375 L+30.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0929…d6acbacked Rockets50c14,286$7,143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,142.8520%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Lakers54c12,489$6,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,738.964,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb27…c56ebacked Lakers51c12,000$6,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,879.9687144.7%389 W · 482 L+14.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Lakers52c11,872$6,183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,689.094,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Lakers52c10,685$5,567 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,117.886,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0865…3dffbacked Lakers53c9,525$5,018 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,507.043751.4%19 W · 18 L+2.5wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+4.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbcaf…7755backed Rockets50c8,658$4,329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,329850%4 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Rockets43c7,454$3,205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,205.144,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Lakers54c6,296$3,404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,892.49,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Rockets44c5,689$2,519 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,518.861,19448.8%583 W · 611 L-22.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf059…6dd9backed Rockets50c5,540$2,770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,77049246.3%228 W · 264 L-15.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x78bb…591fbacked Rockets50c5,334$2,667 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,666.830446.7%142 W · 162 L-8.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-5.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Lakers50c5,000$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,50087750.2%440 W · 437 L-19.7wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Lakers52c5,000$2,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,4001,55652.8%822 W · 734 L+40.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x339a…1eaebacked Lakers51c5,000$2,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,449.981,75961.7%1,085 W · 674 L+127.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc6b1…78fdbacked Rockets42c4,708$1,999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,999.296651.5%34 W · 32 L+6.0wins+0.09per pick42cpaid+24.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Rockets49c4,409$2,156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,156.342,34648.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L-14.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c74…4ef0backed Rockets50c4,270$2,135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,13518749.2%92 W · 95 L-0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24b3…a5a4backed Rockets47c4,226$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00011249.1%55 W · 57 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3ede…6c27backed Rockets46c4,215$1,955 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,954.7645151.4%232 W · 219 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x287a…7976backed Rockets49c4,161$2,039 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,039.045754.4%31 W · 26 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4244…03a6backed Rockets50c4,000$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00018349.2%90 W · 93 L-0.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c84…a8edbacked Rockets50c4,000$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00034854%188 W · 160 L+15.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x67b6…00bcbacked Lakers51c4,000$2,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,959.9424252.5%127 W · 115 L+18.7wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+13.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2e00…eb46backed Lakers52c3,728$1,939 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,789.5236351.2%186 W · 177 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x65c5…c3f2backed Rockets49c3,229$1,582 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,582944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f12…3e35backed Rockets43c3,208$1,379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,379.445446.3%25 W · 29 L-0.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-12.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce39…04d6backed Rockets43c3,133$1,347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,347.1537842.9%162 W · 216 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Lakers58c3,045$1,766 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,279.061,33251.2%682 W · 650 L+7.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9870…b9d3backed Lakers53c2,836$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,336.1556453.9%304 W · 260 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Rockets57c2,581$1,473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,472.782,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Rockets48c2,532$1,216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,215.571,27138.3%487 W · 784 L-13.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35a6…cb8fbacked Rockets43c2,287$984 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$983.523540%14 W · 21 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick43cpaid+6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x69ff…0d1dbacked Lakers51c2,000$1,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98033146.2%153 W · 178 L-7.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Rockets57c1,889$1,077 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,076.762,46850.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Lakers56c1,884$1,055 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$829.11,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x44a1…bd21backed Lakers54c1,851$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$851.526637.2%99 W · 167 L-10.5wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-25.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Rockets43c1,832$788 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$787.761,66752.7%878 W · 789 L+45.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ca5…73bcbacked Lakers55c1,821$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$821.3540451.5%208 W · 196 L-7.4wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd870…9b36backed Lakers53c1,806$951 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$855.41080%8 W · 2 L+3.1wins+0.31per pick49cpaid+73.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1aa2…30ccbacked Rockets49c1,633$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80038946%179 W · 210 L-13.6wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xca06…1394backed Rockets48c1,581$759 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$758.881050%5 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd93b…cd48backed Rockets50c1,428$714 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71417953.1%95 W · 84 L+7.9wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+9.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xef99…ef8dbacked Rockets51c1,413$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$720.119952.5%52 W · 47 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Lakers52c1,368$717 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$650.923,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x299f…2140backed Lakers56c1,356$759 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$596.561,14148%548 W · 593 L+9.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Lakers56c1,345$755 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$589.618,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xabde…d41fbacked Rockets46c1,314$607 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$607.1341947.7%200 W · 219 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x91f7…4767backed Rockets50c1,293$647 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$646.5610651.9%55 W · 51 L+3.1wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x906f…88b4backed Lakers55c1,224$673 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$550.9922453.1%119 W · 105 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0d13…92f3backed Rockets43c1,153$496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49670246.4%326 W · 376 L-20.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed Lakers49c1,110$546 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$563.8625840.7%105 W · 153 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xccf1…25a0backed Rockets59c1,100$646 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$645.621,52249.6%755 W · 767 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x034b…b22bbacked Lakers51c1,075$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$525.433070%21 W · 9 L+4.6wins+0.15per pick55cpaid+18%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Lakers52c1,035$538 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$496.82,07853.6%1,113 W · 965 L+44.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x78f1…e373backed Rockets46c1,000$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4603360.6%20 W · 13 L+3.0wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+12.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x889c…e375backed Rockets50c1,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50050954.8%279 W · 230 L+14.8wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf630…7e65backed Rockets48c999.99$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$479.9929149.5%144 W · 147 L+1.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Lakers46c981.04$451 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$529.765,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8717…32c2backed Lakers52c938.9$488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$450.6741553.3%221 W · 194 L+0.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed Lakers55c911.53$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$411.5367252.7%354 W · 318 L+15.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x515f…7e7fbacked Rockets49c876.18$429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$429.334639.1%18 W · 28 L-4.6wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-20.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xed8f…5aa7backed Rockets43c865.51$372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$372.1717144.4%76 W · 95 L+0.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf05d…ac5ebacked Rockets46c800$368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36825155%138 W · 113 L+9.4wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf1ad…6979backed Rockets46c790.01$361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$360.957650%288 W · 288 L+1.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6292…d254backed Lakers51c784.31$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$384.3120846.6%97 W · 111 L-9.6wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-8.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3542…24f0backed Rockets47c693.09$326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325.683847.4%18 W · 20 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9510…16dfbacked Rockets46c641.61$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296.2630453.3%162 W · 142 L+8.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Lakers52c640.89$333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$307.791,56247.4%741 W · 821 L-6.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe5af…f9e3backed Lakers52c633.05$331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301.823446.2%108 W · 126 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc991…abd4backed Rockets46c599.91$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.9348751.7%252 W · 235 L-1.8wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Rockets47c591.84$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280.831,39946.4%649 W · 750 L-13.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x700a…58a5backed Lakers52c575$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$275.6522336.8%82 W · 141 L-7.6wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc5ac…2a18backed Rockets44c512.28$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.9317850%89 W · 89 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdfcc…441bbacked Rockets49c510.2$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25011736.8%43 W · 74 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x443d…017fbacked Lakers51c507.84$259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.8423550.2%118 W · 117 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f0c…160cbacked Rockets50c500$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25013858%80 W · 58 L-0.6wins0.00per pick58cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1480…6e8dbacked Lakers52c468.82$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.9658450.2%293 W · 291 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa2e0…d084backed Lakers52c432.69$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.6922447.8%107 W · 117 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc51a…a0d9backed Rockets49c419$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.2227455.5%152 W · 122 L+15.2wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+9.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x97d3…8acebacked Rockets48c416.67$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2004740.4%19 W · 28 L-4.6wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-18.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8d27…676ebacked Lakers53c405$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.5913954%75 W · 64 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf469…dcaabacked Rockets42c400.1$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.0422154.8%121 W · 100 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x02a9…642dbacked Lakers58c398.24$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.2618143.1%78 W · 103 L-12.3wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-12.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4630…1968backed Rockets46c394.45$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.6312650%63 W · 63 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4488…579cbacked Rockets45c391.67$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.2577549.2%381 W · 394 L-2.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf68c…c8b1backed Rockets43c390.7$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.353228.1%9 W · 23 L-4.9wins-0.15per pick43cpaid-36.6%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0x22a4…63ebbacked Lakers52c388.34$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.492058%534 W · 386 L+10.4wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a67…ef6bbacked Rockets46c387.16$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.2926756.2%150 W · 117 L+12.6wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Rockets45c384.29$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.552,40043.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L-82.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9325…adafbacked Lakers58c345.17$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.1711754.7%64 W · 53 L+6.7wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+5.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe235…aba2backed Lakers43c340.66$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.5218345.9%84 W · 99 L-16.4wins-0.09per pick55cpaid-16.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9094…dcabbacked Rockets48c332.06$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.7323655.5%131 W · 105 L+12.4wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+8.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 32 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.