NBA · resolved market
Lakers vs. Rockets: O/U 224.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfb4546a8a3baf315e59560e81b8453c3afa45b2cce9414ea55d60cc1b30abcdc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,161
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,161 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 47c | 10,035$4,736 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,735.94 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a57…2afabacked Under | 53c | 8,180$4,335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,844.52 | 89 | 44.9%40 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc49f…9e05backed Over | 50c | 5,000$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 584 | 49.7%290 W · 294 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 50c | 4,000$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Under | 50c | 3,620$1,810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,810 | 1,908 | 54.5%1,040 W · 868 L | +53.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44a1…bd21backed Under | 51c | 3,191$1,619 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,571.68 | 266 | 37.2%99 W · 167 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1ae…f001backed Over | 49c | 2,610$1,279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,278.9 | 142 | 45.8%65 W · 77 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6157…9fb4backed Under | 55c | 2,364$1,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,063.64 | 79 | 63.3%50 W · 29 L | +7.8wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77fe…551dbacked Under | 53c | 2,257$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,057.16 | 244 | 50%122 W · 122 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 48c | 1,843$884 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$884.15 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 52c | 1,721$903 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$817.74 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 52c | 1,338$698 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$639.4 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 52c | 796.69$411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386.04 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Over | 40c | 721.84$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.1 | 258 | 40.7%105 W · 153 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Under | 44c | 691$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386.96 | 956 | 51.5%492 W · 464 L | +23.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 52c | 524.02$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.92 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2b…36f4backed Under | 72c | 500$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba4…6de0backed Under | 49c | 472.16$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.16 | 95 | 24.2%23 W · 72 L | -9.2wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7c56…0615backed Under | 57c | 368.42$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.42 | 182 | 42.9%78 W · 104 L | -10.6wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Under | 47c | 359$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.27 | 401 | 46.9%188 W · 213 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1480…6e8dbacked Over | 47c | 334.65$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.36 | 584 | 50.2%293 W · 291 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 52c | 295.69$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.81 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7d…7862backed Under | 48c | 248.45$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.54 | 218 | 43.6%95 W · 123 L | -15.1wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 22c | 215.26$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.89 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 53c | 141.7$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.96 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Over | 50c | 141.34$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.29 | 1,915 | 49.3%944 W · 971 L | +19.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae45…96b9backed Over | 48c | 135.93$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.25 | 405 | 46.9%190 W · 215 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe170…afacbacked Over | 46c | 99.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…0d67backed Over | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 183 | 39.3%72 W · 111 L | -13.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a2…0020backed Under | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 68 | 48.5%33 W · 35 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5dc…ec43backed Over | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 690 | 49.4%341 W · 349 L | -30.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45c1…4364backed Over | 48c | 80$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 140 | 47.1%66 W · 74 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f49…fec0backed Under | 54c | 79.57$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.6 | 378 | 48.7%184 W · 194 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0307…7ab8backed Under | 59c | 78.52$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.29 | 454 | 52%236 W · 218 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3437…1e5ebacked Under | 47c | 74.47$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.47 | 134 | 47%63 W · 71 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Over | 46c | 70$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 1,151 | 53.7%618 W · 533 L | -41.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e31…5e8ebacked Under | 44c | 67.2$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.63 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Under | 48c | 64.11$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.55 | 950 | 47.2%448 W · 502 L | -28.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 27c | 59.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Over | 29c | 57.53$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.71 | 1,532 | 42.5%651 W · 881 L | -17.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Over | 49c | 55.23$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.29 | 1,197 | 48.9%585 W · 612 L | -14.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 53c | 51.6$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.41 | 1,433 | 47.2%676 W · 757 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Over | 47c | 43.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.29 | 609 | 45.8%279 W · 330 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefa1…8a16backed Over | 48c | 41.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7353…a4f0backed Over | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 150 | 41.3%62 W · 88 L | -8.1wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb5ad…21f7backed Over | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa00e…73fabacked Under | 44c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 169 | 51.5%87 W · 82 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x367b…a306backed Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 46c | 32.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.3 | 1,562 | 47.4%741 W · 821 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x788c…4a44backed Over | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Under | 47c | 30.76$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.3 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d9…bad0backed Under | 52c | 30.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 68 | 64.7%44 W · 24 L | +6.2wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Over | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 880 | 57.5%506 W · 374 L | +34.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9651…0488backed Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a46…69c4backed Over | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02bc…1fd2backed Under | 43c | 25.84$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.73 | 161 | 41.6%67 W · 94 L | -11.3wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e4a…eee7backed Under | 46c | 24.94$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.41 | 327 | 52.9%173 W · 154 L | +11.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x478e…0c83backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 193 | 46.1%89 W · 104 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 32 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Lakers vs. Rockets: O/U 224.5this page
- Alperen Sengün: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- Alperen Sengün: Points O/U 19.5No won
- Alperen Sengün: Rebounds O/U 8.5No won
- Amen Thompson: Points O/U 18.5Yes won
- Amen Thompson: Rebounds O/U 7.5Yes won
- Austin Reaves: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
- Austin Reaves: Points O/U 20.5No won
- Austin Reaves: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Deandre Ayton: Points O/U 9.5No won
- Deandre Ayton: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
- Kevin Durant: Points O/U 26.5No won
- Kevin Durant: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Lakers vs. RocketsLakers won
- Lakers vs. Rockets: 1H MoneylineRockets won
- Lakers vs. Rockets: 1H O/U 115.5Under won
- Lakers vs. Rockets: 1H O/U 116.5Under won
- Lakers vs. Rockets: O/U 223.5Under won
- Lakers vs. Rockets: O/U 225.5Under won
- Lakers vs. Rockets: O/U 226.5Under won
- Lakers vs. Rockets: O/U 227.5Under won
- LeBron James: Assists O/U 6.5No won
- LeBron James: Points O/U 18.5No won
- LeBron James: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Luka Dončić: Assists O/U 7.5No won
- Luka Dončić: Points O/U 30.5Yes won
- Luka Dončić: Rebounds O/U 7.5No won
- Rui Hachimura: Rebounds O/U 2.5Yes won
- Spread: Rockets (-1.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Rockets (-2.5)Lakers won
- Tari Eason: Points O/U 9.5No won
- Tari Eason: Rebounds O/U 5.5Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.