Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on May 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x81c5c6090b22e2772f1e6b9734ad20b39a028f593c52cb5409911233ac78ee92
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,520
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,438
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,520 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 23c | 749.24$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.19 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee24…bd15backed Yes | 24c | 411.33$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.84 | 66 | 36.4%24 W · 42 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed No | 76c | 375.07$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.71 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaaf…051bbacked No | 77c | 275.55$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.9 | 131 | 60.3%79 W · 52 L | +13.9wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xba5c…42f0backed Yes | 24c | 259.98$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.29 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 24c | 227.97$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.18 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 26c | 217.15$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.64 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 73c | 208.86$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.53 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 39c | 154$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.01 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 61c | 153.03$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.58 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 26c | 134.81$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.69 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 38c | 133$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.54 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 30c | 126.95$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.65 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 30c | 126.56$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.54 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 38c | 122.77$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.13 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 80c | 120$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 21c | 117.96$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.34 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 25c | 112.51$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.86 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 67c | 107.09$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.98 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 77c | 105.28$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.28 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x103e…78b5backed Yes | 31c | 96.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 161 | 34.2%55 W · 106 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes | 41c | 95.33$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.19 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 76c | 90$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 72c | 89.25$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 27c | 86.36$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5eaa…3561backed Yes | 39c | 80$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 106 | 36.8%39 W · 67 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 16c | 78.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26e3…2e6cbacked Yes | 36c | 77$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.72 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 72c | 72$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.31 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 69c | 70$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.94 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 73c | 69.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.72 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 22c | 68.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dd…ec86backed No | 71c | 67.44$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.73 | 190 | 57.9%110 W · 80 L | -9.5wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 20c | 64.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45ed…be89backed Yes | 36c | 63$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96e6…fecebacked Yes | 25c | 60.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 261 | 42.1%110 W · 151 L | +15.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 60c | 60.3$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.32 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 76c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 76c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ee…31aebacked Yes | 30c | 56.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x099b…6b04backed No | 64c | 56$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.16 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaff…5f75backed Yes | 26c | 55.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 20c | 53.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 21c | 50.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fe…e62abacked No | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 236 | 77.1%182 W · 54 L | +23.3wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 72c | 48.74$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8327…577dbacked Yes | 24c | 48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6837…1108backed Yes | 22c | 47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc7…5553backed No | 64c | 43$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.48 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 72c | 41.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.69 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd9…d26ebacked No | 64c | 41$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.76 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -41%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…f1f5backed Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 244 | 34.4%84 W · 160 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 75c | 37.73$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf4…cf9ebacked No | 72c | 34.51$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +301.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 73c | 31.87$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9fd…1902backed Yes | 37c | 31.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 112 | 57.1%64 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 72c | 27.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.82 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 71c | 23.83$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2474…ec29backed No | 72c | 23.41$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.56 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb423…c178backed No | 67c | 22.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 268 | 61.6%165 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa13c…d9dbbacked No | 73c | 21.75$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.77 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 66c | 21.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadd7…8622backed No | 63c | 21.14$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.82 | 177 | 66.7%118 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fa9…a323backed No | 60c | 20.55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x96bc…283cbacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 65cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 74c | 18.91$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb58…478abacked No | 74c | 17.89$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 77c | 17.11$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.94 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 76c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.08 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccd8…6083backed No | 62c | 16.26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd074…5a54backed No | 80c | 14.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.96 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 74c | 14.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.77 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76c7…860ebacked No | 73c | 14.23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.84 | 149 | 54.4%81 W · 68 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on May 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 72°F or higher on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 62-63°F on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on May 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on May 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.