Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x824cd04fd6ac04c767622d868ed97c2b448f25e173b3d82a2901d5bb651f4fa8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,412
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,576
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,412 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 20c | 664.75$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.35 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 32c | 605.07$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.62 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31af…5c86backed Yes | 34c | 550.94$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.66 | 318 | 36.8%117 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 25c | 350$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.3 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 80c | 334.05$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.81 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 67c | 179.21$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.69 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 30c | 177$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.79 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 72c | 151.65$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.81 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 75c | 138.75$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 17c | 130.88$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.89 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 22c | 126.32$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.79 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 31c | 120.12$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.63 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 69c | 111.12$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.93 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked Yes | 28c | 106.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 66c | 101.05$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.56 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 77c | 100.2$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.79 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 65c | 77$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.95 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 75c | 70$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed Yes | 25c | 69.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe64f…6cc3backed No | 77c | 64.74$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.74 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 73cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…13e5backed Yes | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 85 | 43.5%37 W · 48 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 72c | 60$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.06 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 34c | 57.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.67 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e02…ce11backed No | 75c | 52.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.99 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab5e…47f6backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e4…b4dabacked No | 76c | 39.61$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 45 | 71.1%32 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 68c | 38.74$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.53 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 79c | 36.11$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Yes | 34c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 111 | 22.5%25 W · 86 L | -9.3wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 75c | 34.45$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 76c | 28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a1b…1c78backed No | 65c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 174 | 60.3%105 W · 69 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 77c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.06 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 66c | 16.73$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.69 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.