Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf7978ceb8c06a647832e3badb9a927f846ab27b2829048f4bf5425b318f79fe4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,067
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,485
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,067 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf421…efcebacked Yes | 1c | 5,134$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.3 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e48…95c7backed Yes | 3c | 1,504$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.52 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed Yes | 4c | 1,271$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.84 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8076…85f9backed Yes | 11c | 908.59$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 11c | 727.44$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.57 | 1,370 | 20.7%283 W · 1,087 L | +31.3wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 5c | 717.97$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.59 | 3,939 | 23.2%913 W · 3,026 L | +125.2wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 12c | 700$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.25 | 522 | 22.4%117 W · 405 L | +27.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +21%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 17c | 625.1$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.98 | 623 | 23.8%148 W · 475 L | -21.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 7c | 600.03$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.2 | 1,731 | 18%311 W · 1,420 L | +73.6wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked Yes | 7c | 571.56$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.82 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x606d…45b5backed Yes | 4c | 550$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa895…faacbacked Yes | 2c | 530.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 204 | 38.7%79 W · 125 L | +31.4wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +218.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 13c | 513.11$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.04 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 11c | 472.26$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.93 | 3,426 | 31.1%1,066 W · 2,360 L | -38.9wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 40c | 460.83$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.76 | 1,615 | 23.9%386 W · 1,229 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3016…54e9backed Yes | 4c | 457.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.32 | 136 | 14.7%20 W · 116 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 21c | 398.59$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.63 | 308 | 28.2%87 W · 221 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda42…d020backed Yes | 4c | 359.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Yes | 7c | 294.39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05dd…305cbacked Yes | 7c | 268.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 14c | 249.49$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.99 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 27c | 247.37$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.13 | 651 | 60.4%393 W · 258 L | +92.1wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 16c | 219.34$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.81 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3be7…ad70backed Yes | 12c | 209.39$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.58 | 134 | 11.9%16 W · 118 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 29c | 180$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.95 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 9c | 174.94$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.63 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…fababacked Yes | 13c | 154$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.04 | 181 | 27.1%49 W · 132 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 72c | 147.73$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 5,255 | 49.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L | -163.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 74c | 139$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.09 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 20c | 125.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.56 | 7,233 | 9.3%675 W · 6,558 L | -1,116.1wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 21c | 109.64$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.09 | 1,330 | 34.1%453 W · 877 L | +45.7wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 25c | 108.18$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.46 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7180…1cefbacked Yes | 11c | 108.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 20c | 105$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,866 | 25.4%474 W · 1,392 L | +134.7wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3b…ae48backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 255 | 58.4%149 W · 106 L | +23.4wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +20%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…1b55backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 269 | 33.1%89 W · 180 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 1,083 | 65.6%710 W · 373 L | -16.5wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6897…a4a4backed Yes | 22c | 96.63$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 192 | 17.2%33 W · 159 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 77c | 96$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.22 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e8e…e539backed Yes | 33c | 90.12$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 13c | 89.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 2,304 | 27%622 W · 1,682 L | -41.0wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2797…9bc0backed No | 48c | 85.72$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 181 | 42.5%77 W · 104 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed Yes | 26c | 83.82$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffc5…67a5backed Yes | 18c | 73.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 83 | 33.7%28 W · 55 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 20c | 72.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71ec…e48cbacked Yes | 19c | 56.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 100 | 21%21 W · 79 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…6f6ebacked No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 141 | 61.7%87 W · 54 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x082d…a226backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 74c | 36.11$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.55 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 75c | 34.04$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 3,201 | 53.6%1,716 W · 1,485 L | -101.7wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 72c | 30.45$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.43 | 515 | 52%268 W · 247 L | -26.7wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 49c | 30.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.38 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 73c | 29.23$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.01 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa59…09febacked Yes | 41c | 29.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked No | 51c | 27.27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.36 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2be8…75aebacked Yes | 43c | 26.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,417 | 65.2%924 W · 493 L | +59.7wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 66c | 22.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 3,649 | 53.2%1,943 W · 1,706 L | +83.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 68c | 22.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.09 | 508 | 60.8%309 W · 199 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 67c | 17.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.85 | 2,215 | 74%1,638 W · 577 L | +18.3wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 80c | 12.78$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.58 | 2,274 | 56.7%1,289 W · 985 L | +65.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.