Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa8f98be3030872f23d79c4c9ef92e81aebe312dc8ebe50b9550141ef36ca24bf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $60,424
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,005
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,424 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2e48…95c7backed No | 4c | 10,210$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.63 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked No | 6c | 4,594$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.53 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed No | 5c | 2,305$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.4 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…9044backed No | 6c | 1,826$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.58 | 89 | 20.2%18 W · 71 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x594e…1c11backed No | 10c | 1,624$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.89 | 661 | 44.5%294 W · 367 L | +57.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 63c | 1,250$782 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468.22 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 10c | 891.28$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.35 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 43c | 819.74$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.4 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6243…e014backed No | 4c | 767.25$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.72 | 232 | 43.5%101 W · 131 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 7c | 727.21$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 13c | 682.55$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.22 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 41c | 582.08$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.82 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed No | 4c | 550$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f4…3fdbbacked No | 3c | 521.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 273 | 35.9%98 W · 175 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked No | 15c | 508.76$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.35 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbd…3ab8backed No | 5c | 488.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 75c | 471.53$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.99 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 73c | 443.71$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.81 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…1b55backed Yes | 5c | 393.8$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.82 | 269 | 33.1%89 W · 180 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed No | 6c | 360.06$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb7…91c4backed No | 7c | 350.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 45 | 71.1%32 W · 13 L | +5.1wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd10…7544backed Yes | 76c | 331.26$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.11 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 9c | 312.68$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.25 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 6c | 300.05$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.58 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +18.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 18c | 296.27$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.24 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 40c | 243.88$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.5 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2429…02d9backed No | 35c | 219.54$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.08 | 177 | 47.5%84 W · 93 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7795…08dfbacked No | 14c | 212.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf695…0045backed No | 9c | 200$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7384…1ebdbacked No | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 140 | 22.1%31 W · 109 L | +10.4wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f0…6450backed No | 15c | 192.52$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.26 | 141 | 19.1%27 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 72c | 183.19$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.85 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 13c | 179$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.97 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c70…34c4backed No | 37c | 172.7$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.94 | 168 | 47.6%80 W · 88 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd353…9ac2backed No | 12c | 166.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +8.5wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +24%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 26c | 146.58$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.84 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 25c | 144.25$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.34 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 65c | 141.85$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.25 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…fababacked No | 8c | 126.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 157 | 22.9%36 W · 121 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf75f…b458backed Yes | 54c | 120.78$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.86 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +6.1wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 67c | 107.2$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.62 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 26c | 102$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.27 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe58b…3980backed No | 25c | 99.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 13c | 81.27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.35 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5948…2d49backed No | 19c | 79.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 57 | 15.8%9 W · 48 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -31%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 21c | 71.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.19 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4978…ea9abacked No | 29c | 69.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +3.4wins | +0.13per pick | 28cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x13fd…f553backed Yes | 62c | 66.28$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.38 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b9…3afcbacked No | 17c | 65.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 204 | 38.7%79 W · 125 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d45…4b99backed Yes | 23c | 64.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.78 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…f053backed No | 32c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 180 | 46.1%83 W · 97 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x455c…e548backed No | 52c | 58.72$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -5.6wins | -0.17per pick | 66cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0b…e169backed Yes | 51c | 50.1$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.46 | 52 | 28.8%15 W · 37 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -34%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf6…2529backed Yes | 39c | 48.01$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.23 | 238 | 45.8%109 W · 129 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 47c | 46.81$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.93 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked Yes | 65c | 46.49$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b41…b5cebacked No | 78c | 45.02$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.7wins | -0.27per pick | 55cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa4…5c82backed Yes | 63c | 45$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 72 | 63.9%46 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86cb…0a90backed No | 67c | 45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.34 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 72c | 33.86$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.27 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked No | 33c | 33.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb02e…90a5backed No | 42c | 26.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 62c | 20.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 76c | 20.55$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc040…c411backed Yes | 72c | 14.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.22 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.