Weather · resolved market
Will there be more than 12 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 14 - July 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8348e7ba2dbffd9a0babb91f3d12aae8c5e1799406320e421210730774e4b0de
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,236
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,183
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,236 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa7d2…f954backed Yes | 54c | 2,975$1,592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,382.62 | 98 | 31.6%31 W · 67 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 38c | 885.45$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.5 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabfe…54f9backed Yes | 22c | 649.81$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504.81 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | +11.1wins | +0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbceb…0049backed Yes | 49c | 534.82$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.1 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 21c | 512.74$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.35 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2df5…57c8backed No | 60c | 399.16$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.39 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 72c | 336.36$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.76 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a9…0c9abacked Yes | 66c | 239.99$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.97 | 25 | 76%19 W · 6 L | +5.5wins | +0.22per pick | 54cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 43c | 239.24$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.87 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 65c | 216$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.68 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fe…ce76backed Yes | 25c | 200.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.53 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb857…9648backed Yes | 35c | 189.24$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.37 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfdc…444dbacked No | 64c | 175.14$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.38 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d85…3a04backed Yes | 67c | 167.78$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.88 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f08…f2a2backed Yes | 36c | 165.95$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 52c | 155$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.45 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 59c | 147.91$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.55 | 437 | 13.3%58 W · 379 L | -78.8wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 35c | 146.33$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.08 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 76c | 146.09$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.03 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 51c | 127$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.81 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7581…21f5backed Yes | 35c | 125.27$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.63 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 33c | 121.95$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.67 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe15a…9854backed Yes | 24c | 114.08$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.2 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 19c | 105$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 38c | 101.73$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.68 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba0f…1011backed No | 76c | 100$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 64c | 86.88$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.47 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 48c | 79.3$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.99 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 23c | 74$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 66c | 70.71$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.77 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 36c | 66$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.32 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 63c | 66$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.25 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb791…a5cabacked Yes | 34c | 64.7$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.7 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.33per pick | 51cpaid | +75.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x41a4…4187backed No | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | +4.2wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 35c | 53.8$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.97 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed Yes | 35c | 52.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.13 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8db6…8679backed Yes | 53c | 51.89$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.39 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +100.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 33c | 51.17$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.46 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 43c | 50.48$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.71 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1b…ff31backed No | 71c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed No | 42c | 33.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x78c5…f623backed No | 45c | 31.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd851…64d7backed Yes | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe5…fe4abacked Yes | 37c | 28.74$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -4.1wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x69b3…14f8backed Yes | 58c | 27.17$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 124 | 66.1%82 W · 42 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed Yes | 63c | 25.38$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.39 | 204 | 59.8%122 W · 82 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 62c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 271 | 69%187 W · 84 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 43c | 23.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 65c | 22.01$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 74c | 17.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.51 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a0…69aebacked No | 79c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be more than 12 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 14 - July 19?this page
- Will there be 6 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 14 - July 19?No won
- Will there be exactly 10 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 14 - July 19?No won
- Will there be exactly 11 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 14 - July 19?No won
- Will there be exactly 12 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 14 - July 19?No won
- Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 14 - July 19?No won
- Will there be exactly 8 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 14 - July 19?No won
- Will there be exactly 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 14 - July 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.