Fifa International · resolved market
Will Spain beat Denmark?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x846f16b4d01546b462d0518a839b186091490ae925ad57a7730c30b90e34203b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,463
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,070
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,463 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4337…8882backed No | 53c | 9,176$4,828 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,828.49 | 218 | 36.2%79 W · 139 L | -19.0wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xca95…fc40backed No | 51c | 5,252$2,668 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,668.38 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +129.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a1…9fd5backed Yes | 52c | 2,721$1,412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,308.28 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff0…46e3backed Yes | 72c | 2,595$1,876 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$719.3 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9eb2…c8bfbacked Yes | 47c | 2,128$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,127.66 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa3…dc66backed Yes | 49c | 2,040$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,040.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8527…09f9backed No | 47c | 1,792$849 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$849.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -51%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02cb…ae38backed Yes | 49c | 1,628$805 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$822.41 | 106 | 57.5%61 W · 45 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a0…3d33backed Yes | 48c | 1,306$626 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$679.93 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…ed9dbacked Yes | 47c | 1,065$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$564.6 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…3b5abacked Yes | 48c | 1,047$503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$544.59 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c87…70d5backed Yes | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +3.3wins | +0.15per pick | 53cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Yes | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510 | 102 | 63.7%65 W · 37 L | +11.7wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed No | 50c | 913.79$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454.09 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | +6.4wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…fbcebacked No | 50c | 898.94$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.47 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda03…fa78backed Yes | 49c | 750$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.5 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0e…1461backed No | 48c | 749.98$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.99 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58ec…66f9backed Yes | 48c | 745$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58f2…a3e2backed Yes | 47c | 699.66$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.18 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked Yes | 77c | 659.97$511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.99 | 229 | 59.4%136 W · 93 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x306b…3ec5backed No | 33c | 621.64$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.12 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked No | 52c | 544.66$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.95 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e88…d46bbacked Yes | 47c | 531.91$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.91 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked No | 51c | 499.97$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.98 | 888 | 52.7%468 W · 420 L | +13.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed No | 26c | 408.43$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.07 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Yes | 60c | 334.45$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.45 | 50 | 70%35 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf112…21ebbacked Yes | 49c | 331.83$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.11 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05ad…72d7backed Yes | 47c | 300$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c8…090cbacked Yes | 47c | 287.23$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.23 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71cd…912dbacked No | 40c | 283.2$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.28 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +13.7wins | +0.27per pick | 22cpaid | +416.2%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xca93…5355backed Yes | 60c | 277.07$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.83 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbda7…fc55backed Yes | 49c | 249.97$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.48 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50ef…3abdbacked Yes | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.77 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe53e…91b0backed Yes | 47c | 212.74$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e09…3cb2backed No | 5c | 210$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89dc…e209backed Yes | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7b…f74ebacked No | 63c | 174.45$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.9 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +4.0wins | +0.23per pick | 53cpaid | +55%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ef…e2c9backed Yes | 48c | 157.49$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.43 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3586…eecfbacked Yes | 48c | 137.71$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed No | 42c | 124.98$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.49 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc974…eb16backed Yes | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a09…4a9ebacked Yes | 49c | 102.16$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.1 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7be1…200ebacked Yes | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c6c…bdd8backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1266…cd8cbacked No | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7479…87f9backed Yes | 73c | 91.06$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.59 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed Yes | 46c | 88.67$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.88 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +6.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc6…385fbacked Yes | 58c | 86.14$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb79…c2c6backed No | 52c | 85.42$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.42 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3b…e6ecbacked Yes | 47c | 85.38$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes | 74c | 68.86$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.76 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked No | 52c | 66.31$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.48 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 70c | 66$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f22…a26ebacked Yes | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b29…d0a8backed Yes | 50c | 49.91$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.91 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4052…407abacked Yes | 50c | 49.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b7…520dbacked Yes | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37b9…3390backed Yes | 45c | 43.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.19 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45b9…8069backed No | 55c | 43.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.19 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ff3…22d9backed Yes | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +25%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5138…1d4dbacked Yes | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1872…1962backed No | 51c | 38.24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7892…85c3backed Yes | 52c | 36.75$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed62…fc23backed Yes | 52c | 31.51$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +93.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e3…e04fbacked Yes | 60c | 28.67$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6245…d3c0backed No | 54c | 28.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb783…c20cbacked Yes | 47c | 27.66$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdbe…1cf2backed Yes | 62c | 24.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +62.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a7…1849backed Yes | 53c | 20.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2399…2332backed Yes | 53c | 20.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Spain beat Denmark?this page
- Will Denmark beat Spain?No won
- Will the match between Denmark and Spain end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.