Token Launches · resolved market
Will Phantom launch a token in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x84cf637b442ac5b4ac90386db16186c258f7e438fe26526313d0496641c4cac3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $146,749
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $177,610
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $146,749 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 1c | 8,234$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.01 | 142 | 4.2%6 W · 136 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 1c | 6,500$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.83 | 62 | 6.5%4 W · 58 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -76.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b9f…a27abacked Yes | 12c | 4,282$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510.98 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.29per pick | 39cpaid | -81.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc694…1171backed Yes | 1c | 3,800$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 71 | 23.9%17 W · 54 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5542…a7e7backed Yes | 3c | 3,475$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc89b…f512backed Yes | 8c | 3,119$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bf6…5200backed Yes | 4c | 2,577$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40c…f89bbacked Yes | 11c | 2,543$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.77 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 2,084$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.75 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8242…cb6ebacked Yes | 5c | 1,400$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.89 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9150…26f4backed Yes | 1c | 1,291$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0bad…43babacked Yes | 12c | 1,017$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.08 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 5c | 1,001$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.01 | 42 | 7.1%3 W · 39 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd8…a74abacked Yes | 2c | 999.97$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 75 | 14.7%11 W · 64 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 1c | 980.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 4c | 907.91$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.44 | 110 | 7.3%8 W · 102 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x514b…ad6abacked Yes | 3c | 905.6$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd569…48c1backed Yes | 11c | 900$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf52…29b7backed Yes | 12c | 833.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6b3…4569backed Yes | 11c | 815.73$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.73 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9099backed Yes | 4c | 796.34$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.23 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55f3…8b12backed Yes | 13c | 769.23$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 10cpaid | +529.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd38a…52c0backed Yes | 3c | 682.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e1…26b3backed Yes | 9c | 555.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bef…ef0bbacked Yes | 3c | 549.95$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6417…424cbacked Yes | 6c | 417.09$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bca…5337backed Yes | 10c | 400$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -4.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x880b…877cbacked Yes | 11c | 390.91$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39d2…2ef7backed Yes | 3c | 388$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 12cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…1491backed Yes | 3c | 343.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc901…0698backed Yes | 12c | 327.46$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 9c | 323$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.07 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x209d…3fd1backed Yes | 3c | 312.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 13cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5b9…4f53backed Yes | 11c | 307.66$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6b…b03abacked Yes | 5c | 267.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4be…2309backed Yes | 9c | 263.65$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.09 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +86.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0774…da5dbacked Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfb…2398backed Yes | 8c | 249.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe219…d8afbacked Yes | 9c | 231.14$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 33cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa35f…b58fbacked Yes | 13c | 230.76$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb807…99cbbacked Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 103 | 20.4%21 W · 82 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd0…0e01backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd28b…60f0backed Yes | 7c | 199.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…44c1backed Yes | 12c | 175$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 9cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x091e…eef4backed Yes | 9c | 166.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3df…d099backed Yes | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 8c | 161.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 193 | 36.3%70 W · 123 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c45…47f1backed Yes | 12c | 161.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fd…104ebacked Yes | 13c | 153.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd180…4276backed Yes | 10c | 110$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb5…050bbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3867…ae73backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.