TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 28?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$13,447
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$14,679

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,447 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 120 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes49c1,036$504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$531.231,33120.8%277 W · 1,054 L+33.9wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-19%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No69c738.46$508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$507.798,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes48c561.48$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291.165,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed Yes34c377.8$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.711,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes34c355.25$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.128,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc426…ac6ebacked No52c297.56$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.6314646.6%68 W · 78 L-7.9wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-12.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No54c284.76$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.9310,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No64c257.04$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.584,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No53c238.97$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.615,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3609…3a0bbacked Yes42c216.2$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.888245.1%37 W · 45 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No25c212.44$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.714,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4127…a8cebacked Yes63c191.81$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.813452.9%18 W · 16 L+4.2wins+0.12per pick40cpaid+29.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8c93…8967backed Yes34c178.46$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.3644448.6%216 W · 228 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x61f9…8055backed No53c174.4$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.4790555.6%503 W · 402 L-1.3wins0.00per pick56cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xabb7…df91backed Yes34c174.1$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.1794552.5%496 W · 449 L+27.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed Yes34c174.09$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.683,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No51c165$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.185,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes33c151.85$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.211,22733.9%416 W · 811 L+45.1wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6f46…e2bdbacked Yes48c125$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6514452.8%76 W · 68 L+20.6wins+0.14per pick38cpaid+39.9%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No38c120.41$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.66,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4174…18fabacked No36c112.2$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.021,07961.2%660 W · 419 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6cf…66c3backed No45c108$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.19341.9%39 W · 54 L-0.3wins0.00per pick42cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No66c102.04$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.419,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No41c100$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$411,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xed5c…8cf8backed Yes30c100$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7025935.1%91 W · 168 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+12.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a87…a55abacked Yes32c100$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$681,11235.1%390 W · 722 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3bbc…e05dbacked Yes52c100$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4817255.2%95 W · 77 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes52c96.91$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.522,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No70c95.95$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.59,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes75c94.05$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.096,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No68c90.75$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.962,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8bb1…6644backed Yes32c81.47$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5513540%54 W · 81 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No36c79.74$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.4912,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x451a…3b01backed No52c76.92$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4017858.4%104 W · 74 L-0.6wins0.00per pick59cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35e6…7a4dbacked Yes28c76.77$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.591,69960.6%1,029 W · 670 L-24.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed No67c73.29$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.160523.3%141 W · 464 L-21.1wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-22.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed No52c72.8$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.861,28051.2%655 W · 625 L-33.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8edc…80d8backed Yes42c72.24$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.711,17956.4%665 W · 514 L+19.0wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x077c…8b1fbacked No48c72.17$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.5753855%296 W · 242 L-9.4wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc196…4af6backed No56c70.82$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.7327056.7%153 W · 117 L-1.3wins0.00per pick57cpaid-3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb7a…ed18backed No20c70.09$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.691,54416.3%252 W · 1,292 L+21.9wins+0.01per pick15cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x170b…4737backed No37c70.02$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.2580957.6%466 W · 343 L-19.4wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No33c68.85$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.722,30226.9%620 W · 1,682 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked No74c68.8$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.781,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4699…695abacked Yes53c67.92$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.9212072.5%87 W · 33 L+8.3wins+0.07per pick66cpaid+10.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2350…a351backed Yes77c65.3$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.34560%27 W · 18 L+5.5wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+19.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes29c65$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.152,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe01…87d3backed Yes33c63.19$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.1830332.3%98 W · 205 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-16.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ba7…3d88backed No68c63$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.8447866.5%318 W · 160 L0.0wins0.00per pick67cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x50e5…a3a5backed Yes49c62.82$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.0415051.3%77 W · 73 L+12.7wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+5.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No35c60$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.235,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x156b…5808backed Yes30c60$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4240535.6%144 W · 261 L-0.2wins0.00per pick36cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x914e…8355backed No69c59.77$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4116859.5%100 W · 68 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No44c57.62$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.582,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No53c56.57$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.11,99152.3%1,042 W · 949 L-76.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3a1f…4877backed Yes30c52.88$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.8880130.8%247 W · 554 L+1.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9eda…6e19backed Yes26c52.5$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.8577555.2%428 W · 347 L-13.9wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe4d9…af28backed Yes20c51.4$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.329635.4%34 W · 62 L+6.5wins+0.07per pick29cpaid+22.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd4b3…e571backed Yes56c51.12$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.743237.5%12 W · 20 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-11.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xebdb…5ac4backed No54c50$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2785049.8%423 W · 427 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd514…bbdfbacked No54c50$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2757948.4%280 W · 299 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0996…598dbacked No40c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2048743.7%213 W · 274 L-9.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x29df…aeecbacked No52c50$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2614043.6%61 W · 79 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-8.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb53…fde7backed No54c50$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2725954.1%140 W · 119 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4af9…3144backed Yes53c50$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.521950.7%111 W · 108 L-10.6wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-10.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9625…ec8ebacked Yes53c50$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.59145.1%41 W · 50 L-5.3wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-10.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4476…c5fcbacked No62c50$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3142547.5%202 W · 223 L-16.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-9.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x989e…aa30backed Yes53c50$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.514745.6%67 W · 80 L-7.5wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-15.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd221…4331backed No54c50$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279746.4%45 W · 52 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x74d5…195bbacked Yes53c50$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.53228.1%9 W · 23 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-30.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb31a…8817backed Yes53c50$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.518254.4%99 W · 83 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7fc0…7bf6backed Yes75c50$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.712544.8%56 W · 69 L-5.2wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1fe9…64adbacked Yes31c50$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.521339%83 W · 130 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x326c…ef55backed Yes53c50$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.515345.1%69 W · 84 L-11.3wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-14.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfcae…1ea8backed Yes53c50$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.510147.5%48 W · 53 L-4.8wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-9.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No22c49.31$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8412,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe396…dce1backed No68c47.07$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.2223666.1%156 W · 80 L-6.5wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-5.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9387…d659backed Yes32c46.28$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.4727130.6%83 W · 188 L-0.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-9.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x515c…7587backed No73c44.99$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.8419648%94 W · 102 L-11.8wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-20.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No54c43.79$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.692,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x234c…90dbbacked Yes35c42.46$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.4658138.9%226 W · 355 L+10.9wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdfb9…9c56backed Yes30c42.4$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.686157.4%35 W · 26 L+9.3wins+0.15per pick42cpaid+42.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes71c42.1$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.161676.3%470 W · 146 L+92.4wins+0.15per pick61cpaid+31.6%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0x5157…fdbcbacked No32c40$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.853353.1%283 W · 250 L-8.8wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x167e…0f16backed Yes27c40$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.28361.4%51 W · 32 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick61cpaid-6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes48c39$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.2891444.7%409 W · 505 L+16.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5174…8a39backed Yes65c38.53$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.531850%9 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No70c37.64$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.353,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb58…407abacked Yes30c36.69$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.682,42426.2%636 W · 1,788 L+18.0wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No37c36.41$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.514,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf8b…4dedbacked Yes33c36.36$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.3614546.9%68 W · 77 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4435…786fbacked Yes30c35.11$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.5897152.2%507 W · 464 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xadd7…8622backed No70c35.11$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.5817766.7%118 W · 59 L-0.8wins0.00per pick67cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1632…ad5abacked No44c34.08$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9950261%306 W · 196 L-17.9wins-0.04per pick65cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x863a…e428backed No55c33.01$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.152060%12 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No59c32$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.884,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x759d…cc80backed Yes50c31.47$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.8577851.9%404 W · 374 L-9.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5219…7f31backed Yes53c30.93$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.6635344.5%157 W · 196 L-18.2wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-8.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5937…ae8dbacked Yes74c30.64$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.0618567.6%125 W · 60 L+28.7wins+0.16per pick52cpaid+34.6%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No53c30$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.93,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.