NBA · resolved market
Clippers vs. Warriors: O/U 225.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8544331259180fb6b7933bcc4143d1b15f92b5fe95eeb7f25aff8069fa1fcbeb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $92,164
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $100,917
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $92,164 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd43c…04e8backed Over | 49c | 51,453$25,317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,316.89 | 115 | 35.7%41 W · 74 L | -12.9wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Over | 51c | 10,362$5,310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,310.11 | 857 | 42.6%365 W · 492 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Under | 51c | 9,468$4,809 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,658.69 | 418 | 48.3%202 W · 216 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43d4…13a2backed Under | 52c | 8,736$4,504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,231.61 | 127 | 40.2%51 W · 76 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Under | 52c | 8,366$4,327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,039.71 | 710 | 52.1%370 W · 340 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 51c | 7,991$4,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,931.62 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Under | 50c | 6,655$3,344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,311.22 | 474 | 48.7%231 W · 243 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd589…27c2backed Under | 51c | 3,000$1,530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,470 | 176 | 37.5%66 W · 110 L | -16.3wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 50c | 2,834$1,417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,417 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd14a…e912backed Under | 50c | 2,500$1,260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,240 | 73 | 42.5%31 W · 42 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde91…f20abacked Under | 51c | 2,000$1,010 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$990 | 157 | 45.2%71 W · 86 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Under | 52c | 1,923$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$923.04 | 662 | 50.8%336 W · 326 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc350…3669backed Under | 50c | 1,481$741 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$740.73 | 148 | 56.1%83 W · 65 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4403…4252backed Under | 50c | 1,262$631 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$631 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 49c | 1,227$601 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$625.89 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9844…5e6cbacked Under | 50c | 970$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$485 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 49c | 654.31$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.04 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Under | 50c | 600$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 50c | 514.8$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.4 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91b2…0566backed Under | 51c | 450.17$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.58 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Over | 50c | 417$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.5 | 471 | 44.2%208 W · 263 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb90c…9a6abacked Under | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0944…6771backed Under | 51c | 380$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.2 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 52c | 370.19$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.69 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d1…4660backed Under | 24c | 332$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.32 | 390 | 18.2%71 W · 319 L | +27.6wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb820…cbe7backed Under | 51c | 321$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.29 | 589 | 51.3%302 W · 287 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e8…6e04backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62fd…8bcfbacked Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e4…22ccbacked Over | 49c | 150$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.5 | 377 | 50.4%190 W · 187 L | +12.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbed1…331bbacked Over | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Under | 51c | 93$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.57 | 1,109 | 41.8%464 W · 645 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Under | 50c | 88$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 354 | 47.7%169 W · 185 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe565…01a4backed Over | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -3.4wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x29c1…012cbacked Over | 49c | 62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.38 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a36…93a0backed Over | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 60cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb590…15d3backed Over | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce12…0e76backed Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +6.4wins | +0.26per pick | 42cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc3b0…28f6backed Over | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x902d…1f3fbacked Over | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbba2…eaa6backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 163 | 57.1%93 W · 70 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57eb…3a67backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5825…af22backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -4.6wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -19%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ece…a0d6backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf13…a49cbacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.28per pick | 50cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Clippers vs. Warriors: O/U 225.5this page
- 1H Spread: Clippers (-0.5)Clippers won
- Clippers vs. WarriorsWarriors won
- Clippers vs. Warriors: 1H MoneylineClippers won
- Clippers vs. Warriors: 1H O/U 111.5Under won
- Clippers vs. Warriors: 1H O/U 112.5Under won
- Clippers vs. Warriors: O/U 223.5Under won
- Clippers vs. Warriors: O/U 224.5Under won
- Clippers vs. Warriors: O/U 226.5Under won
- Clippers vs. Warriors: O/U 227.5Under won
- Spread: Clippers (-2.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Warriors (-1.5)Warriors won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.