TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Warriors (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Warriorsof Warriors, Clippers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$81,281
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$83,713

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $81,281 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd43c…04e8backed Warriors46c54,324$24,898 inWon+$29,425.9111535.7%41 W · 74 L-12.9wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-22.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x8058…d023backed Clippers54c35,000$18,900 inLost-$18,9007946.8%37 W · 42 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-6.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Warriors44c12,513$5,466 inWon+$7,047.492,29851.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L+65.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaf38…a59bbacked Clippers54c8,571$4,628 inLost-$4,628.2241848.3%202 W · 216 L-7.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Clippers56c6,636$3,715 inLost-$3,715.019,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Clippers55c6,500$3,575 inLost-$3,5752,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x84ec…5696backed Warriors52c4,773$2,504 inWon+$2,269.133234.4%11 W · 21 L-4.7wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-39.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Clippers48c4,612$2,233 inLost-$2,232.528,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Clippers57c4,000$2,280 inLost-$2,28076249.5%377 W · 385 L-8.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Clippers56c2,266$1,269 inLost-$1,269.241,02450.8%520 W · 504 L+18.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde91…f20abacked Clippers54c2,233$1,216 inLost-$1,216.3315745.2%71 W · 86 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e82…752cbacked Clippers57c2,131$1,215 inLost-$1,214.911,20455.3%666 W · 538 L+52.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0647…da66backed Warriors44c2,091$920 inWon+$1,170.911833.3%6 W · 12 L-3.1wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-31.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xde53…e5bebacked Clippers55c1,732$959 inLost-$959.2285347.9%409 W · 444 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d5c…0182backed Clippers55c1,344$739 inLost-$739.247751.8%247 W · 230 L+1.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed Warriors43c1,022$439 inWon+$582.5447448.7%231 W · 243 L-0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid+5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x83b9…6124backed Warriors45c876$394 inWon+$481.836148.5%175 W · 186 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b01…0aa5backed Clippers49c600.37$294 inLost-$294.182222.7%5 W · 17 L-3.8wins-0.17per pick40cpaid-47.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Clippers54c554$299 inLost-$299.162,43549.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L+30.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x900c…1d7abacked Warriors43c391.6$170 inWon+$221.9771052.1%370 W · 340 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6884…6ccfbacked Warriors46c337.5$155 inWon+$182.2539051.5%201 W · 189 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked Clippers57c310.29$177 inLost-$176.8266853.4%357 W · 311 L+22.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf7b3…f97cbacked Warriors44c300$133 inWon+$166.745151%26 W · 25 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5bc4…f44fbacked Warriors43c200$86 inWon+$11445647.1%215 W · 241 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Clippers56c153$86 inLost-$85.621,10941.8%464 W · 645 L-20.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb263…1393backed Clippers59c118.68$70 inLost-$7010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Clippers51c80$41 inLost-$41.0459743.6%260 W · 337 L-11.9wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-9.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x27ec…ad73backed Clippers56c53.57$30 inLost-$3019451.5%100 W · 94 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd99…f375backed Clippers40c50$20 inLost-$2038151.2%195 W · 186 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f31…c075backed Clippers49c50$25 inLost-$24.51414.3%2 W · 12 L-2.0wins-0.15per pick29cpaid-38.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4884…9b0abacked Warriors46c40$18 inWon+$21.62157.1%12 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Warriors43c40$17 inWon+$22.816844%74 W · 94 L-11.8wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-10%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd14a…e912backed Warriors43c36$15 inWon+$20.527342.5%31 W · 42 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-10.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd3cf…3183backed Warriors44c35.59$16 inWon+$19.937052.9%37 W · 33 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a3c…93d7backed Warriors45c33.33$15 inWon+$18.3340346.2%186 W · 217 L+9.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+8.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb151…7cd8backed Warriors46c30$14 inWon+$16.2757.1%4 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid+2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.