TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: Team Vitality vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO1)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Team Vitalityof Team Vitality, Karmine Corp Blue
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$609,181
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$719,387

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $609,181 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 274 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x671f…328cbacked Karmine Corp Blue17c260,000$43,855 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43,855.046040%24 W · 36 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-12.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Team Vitality77c26,242$20,157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,084.9385046%391 W · 459 L-11.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa5ad…be8cbacked Team Vitality67c25,000$16,850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,149.963740.5%15 W · 22 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x59f8…853cbacked Karmine Corp Blue0c18,150$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.1530%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x74cd…2319backed Karmine Corp Blue0c17,350$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.4950%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c38…1218backed Team Vitality76c12,000$9,112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,887.9921448.1%103 W · 111 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a0f…1305backed Team Vitality69c10,538$7,305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,233.181,46361.4%899 W · 564 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Team Vitality76c8,224$6,241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,982.291,59842.4%677 W · 921 L-17.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8165…f688backed Team Vitality72c7,502$5,379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,122.6114753.7%79 W · 68 L+0.4wins0.00per pick54cpaid+3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9a5…c602backed Karmine Corp Blue1c6,111$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.8629927.8%83 W · 216 L-0.2wins0.00per pick28cpaid-23%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39fd…5a3fbacked Team Vitality74c5,964$4,427 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,536.6326360.1%158 W · 105 L+1.1wins0.00per pick60cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc65c…ea39backed Karmine Corp Blue28c5,728$1,604 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,603.9512759.8%76 W · 51 L+5.7wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+10.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa42e…9a1cbacked Team Vitality75c4,800$3,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2005556.4%31 W · 24 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+15.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x31b5…6128backed Team Vitality78c4,300$3,359 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94123657.2%135 W · 101 L-15.6wins-0.07per pick64cpaid-14.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7771…009fbacked Karmine Corp Blue28c4,000$1,121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1211,00748.2%485 W · 522 L+7.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Team Vitality75c3,754$2,823 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$931.185442.7%365 W · 489 L-14.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3414…067abacked Karmine Corp Blue33c3,613$1,179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,179.4777131.8%245 W · 526 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb29a…7199backed Karmine Corp Blue16c3,183$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9adf…55e8backed Karmine Corp Blue31c3,127$962 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$962.3342840.2%172 W · 256 L-32.1wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-19.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Karmine Corp Blue31c3,000$945 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9453,58440.1%1,437 W · 2,147 L+31.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed2c…9597backed Team Vitality71c3,000$2,130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87041644.2%184 W · 232 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-11.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda5f…2e9bbacked Karmine Corp Blue35c2,836$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00022547.6%107 W · 118 L-11.4wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-8.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Team Vitality78c2,307$1,801 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$506.6321836.7%80 W · 138 L-13.9wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-25.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x22d0…6293backed Karmine Corp Blue30c2,220$666 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66611150.5%56 W · 55 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed Karmine Corp Blue28c2,000$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56035243.2%152 W · 200 L-8.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb763…247dbacked Karmine Corp Blue27c2,000$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5402060%12 W · 8 L+4.4wins+0.22per pick38cpaid+62.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed Team Vitality72c2,000$1,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5601,02952.3%538 W · 491 L+27.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Karmine Corp Blue34c2,000$680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$679.991,80639.1%707 W · 1,099 L-30.8wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3ae1…befbbacked Team Vitality72c1,948$1,403 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$545.5366843%287 W · 381 L-29.8wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-10.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdccc…0e18backed Team Vitality76c1,900$1,437 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$463.24650%3 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked Karmine Corp Blue20c1,606$323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322.7513336.8%49 W · 84 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9af9…eba7backed Team Vitality69c1,598$1,107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$490.471241.7%5 W · 7 L-2.2wins-0.18per pick60cpaid-10.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Team Vitality79c1,535$1,219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$315.9927636.2%100 W · 176 L-6.3wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-19.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x325f…4511backed Karmine Corp Blue7c1,507$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.455032%16 W · 34 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa469…0782backed Karmine Corp Blue34c1,471$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001,32253.2%703 W · 619 L+36.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa941…ec2ebacked Team Vitality71c1,400$990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41051160.3%308 W · 203 L-7.7wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb80d…0ac1backed Karmine Corp Blue33c1,350$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45050547.7%241 W · 264 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4283…a997backed Team Vitality75c1,333$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$333.33966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.19per pick47cpaid+230%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb3af…aca1backed Karmine Corp Blue33c1,210$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40012948.8%63 W · 66 L+5.3wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+13%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfaf1…795fbacked Karmine Corp Blue28c1,190$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.27646.1%35 W · 41 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a9d…69fbbacked Karmine Corp Blue34c1,176$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40015536.8%57 W · 98 L-5.7wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-7.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcbb5…5ed9backed Team Vitality77c1,173$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273.0714761.9%91 W · 56 L+10.3wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+15.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6bea…5d50backed Team Vitality75c1,120$840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28069041.3%285 W · 405 L-16.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x82bf…de71backed Karmine Corp Blue27c1,094$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.8175342.5%320 W · 433 L-14.0wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-11.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf5b7…3e1cbacked Karmine Corp Blue20c1,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20034651.2%177 W · 169 L+1.0wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8da…a6e6backed Team Vitality65c999.99$650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35012839.8%51 W · 77 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-16.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x984f…b08dbacked Karmine Corp Blue31c967.74$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001931.6%6 W · 13 L-2.8wins-0.15per pick46cpaid-43.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1e7c…cbaabacked Karmine Corp Blue22c959.92$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2149238%35 W · 57 L-7.2wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-15.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb91c…2c0ebacked Karmine Corp Blue13c956.85$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.515927.1%16 W · 43 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick23cpaid-15.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a3c…38d3backed Karmine Corp Blue32c935$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.256432.1%181 W · 383 L-2.3wins0.00per pick32cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51df…2d97backed Karmine Corp Blue30c926.03$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2757853.8%42 W · 36 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-0.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x40ce…bf90backed Karmine Corp Blue21c848.81$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.251,15156%644 W · 507 L+25.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+8.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a2c…5172backed Karmine Corp Blue31c806.45$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25043640.6%177 W · 259 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd81d…b365backed Team Vitality75c800$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20026865.7%176 W · 92 L+13.8wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb1e3…358ebacked Team Vitality67c798.83$535 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$263.617647.4%36 W · 40 L-9.1wins-0.12per pick59cpaid-28.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xacf6…41fcbacked Team Vitality77c781.67$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.6750242.2%212 W · 290 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x260c…7130backed Karmine Corp Blue23c754.86$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17223932.6%78 W · 161 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2849…0cd8backed Team Vitality75c740.45$559 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.495263.5%33 W · 19 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x29df…8ebcbacked Team Vitality72c732.32$527 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.0510133.7%34 W · 67 L-11.8wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-32.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Team Vitality71c730.62$518 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.5322234.7%77 W · 145 L-6.1wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-24.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x41b3…a28dbacked Team Vitality75c715.05$535 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.0218065%117 W · 63 L+0.5wins0.00per pick65cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd1e…ff14backed Team Vitality79c714$567 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.994860.4%29 W · 19 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2489…60f1backed Karmine Corp Blue21c711.21$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1506740.3%27 W · 40 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+13.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd320…097ebacked Team Vitality71c709.97$504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.8915545.8%71 W · 84 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda32…04a1backed Team Vitality68c700$476 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22442148.2%203 W · 218 L-8.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid+36.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc3fc…5176backed Karmine Corp Blue28c682.14$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19111542.6%49 W · 66 L-7.6wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-23%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfbc2…514cbacked Team Vitality75c666.67$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.6723341.2%96 W · 137 L+6.5wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x762d…45a6backed Karmine Corp Blue27c651.11$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.4918741.2%77 W · 110 L-7.4wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-13.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc3b8…b4d8backed Team Vitality72c639.13$460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.0643151.3%221 W · 210 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4a1…8f8dbacked Karmine Corp Blue31c638.64$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2004143.9%18 W · 23 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-8.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Karmine Corp Blue23c636.42$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.042,40642.6%1,026 W · 1,380 L+21.5wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd4e2…0f82backed Karmine Corp Blue31c615$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.2516439%64 W · 100 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8df0…96a6backed Team Vitality66c541.93$356 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.2210761.7%66 W · 41 L+8.9wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+11%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3ffa…f2cfbacked Team Vitality76c527.41$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.124936.7%18 W · 31 L-4.8wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-18.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Team Vitality67c521$351 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.642,31139.4%910 W · 1,401 L-83.4wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-20.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7a78…add7backed Team Vitality80c500.01$399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.7250643.1%218 W · 288 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked Karmine Corp Blue21c500$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1051,25937.6%473 W · 786 L+34.1wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5316…1d07backed Team Vitality65c500$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17529240.1%117 W · 175 L-5.8wins-0.02per pick42cpaid+0.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd690…93a6backed Team Vitality67c500$335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16510160.4%61 W · 40 L+5.3wins+0.05per pick55cpaid-0.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed Karmine Corp Blue29c500$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1452,36232%755 W · 1,607 L+42.0wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba0c…f837backed Karmine Corp Blue14c500$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7021857.8%126 W · 92 L+18.6wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+16%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1f4f…46c2backed Karmine Corp Blue32c500$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16040347.4%191 W · 212 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb70c…41d5backed Karmine Corp Blue23c500$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11517633.5%59 W · 117 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-8.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x97e0…8194backed Team Vitality71c499.97$355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.991747.1%8 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4818…fde0backed Team Vitality69c490.28$338 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.9976953.4%411 W · 358 L+13.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe071…f836backed Team Vitality78c489.99$383 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.32445.8%11 W · 13 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb003…d962backed Karmine Corp Blue18c456.25$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8079151.8%410 W · 381 L+15.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd2d7…082bbacked Karmine Corp Blue7c449.97$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.28650%3 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe2bb…ea55backed Team Vitality78c448.71$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.7218549.7%92 W · 93 L-6.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd0c4…b7a9backed Karmine Corp Blue14c434.99$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.552236.4%8 W · 14 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-43.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd4c7…a27ebacked Karmine Corp Blue30c433.7$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1313542.9%15 W · 20 L-2.5wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-15%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcfb3…8689backed Karmine Corp Blue34c431.99$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.886361.9%39 W · 24 L-0.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed Team Vitality67c426.92$285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.7816842.9%72 W · 96 L-10.2wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-17.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc7a0…05c4backed Karmine Corp Blue29c413.79$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12035035.1%123 W · 227 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c83…72eabacked Karmine Corp Blue31c410.58$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.285032%16 W · 34 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe2a5…391cbacked Karmine Corp Blue28c405.99$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.682941.4%12 W · 17 L-3.2wins-0.11per pick53cpaid-30.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8b0c…e795backed Karmine Corp Blue31c400$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12412259%72 W · 50 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x727d…1589backed Karmine Corp Blue9c393.29$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.613544.4%60 W · 75 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-15.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf527…366bbacked Karmine Corp Blue21c373.74$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$772524%6 W · 19 L-2.7wins-0.11per pick35cpaid-16.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1430…a753backed Team Vitality79c363$287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.233959%23 W · 16 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.