Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on August 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x867d18df7207449cbcbcc1b2db97de0380d4c3dc500d496af600b33c864f2fcb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,470
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,481
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,470 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 22c | 999.45$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.63 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 71c | 514.18$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.68 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 26c | 500.65$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.93 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 12c | 419.61$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.31 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 26c | 408.1$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.59 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 73c | 210.75$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.93 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 32c | 200$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.38 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8116…465dbacked Yes | 27c | 175.5$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.8 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 75c | 167$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.5 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 73c | 165.94$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.64 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 74c | 160$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.6 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 23c | 147.32$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.43 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 75c | 140$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.66 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b9…125dbacked No | 75c | 133.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.08 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 28c | 121.01$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1f…eb96backed No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 231 | 46.3%107 W · 124 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 12c | 98.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 32c | 95.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.2 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 73c | 85$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.11 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 73c | 82.04$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.43 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 68c | 79.1$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.4 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed No | 65c | 77.87$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.25 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 72c | 71.49$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.28 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 24c | 70.25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d30…91d6backed Yes | 18c | 70$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 76c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 72c | 59.99$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab14…e786backed Yes | 25c | 54.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 112 | 43.8%49 W · 63 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa087…91f7backed Yes | 24c | 52.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 176 | 35.2%62 W · 114 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 74c | 50.66$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.17 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 77c | 44$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 68c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 30c | 38.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 77c | 36$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 71c | 31.65$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.31 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 70c | 30.08$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.01 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 75c | 28.6$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.15 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24cf…7e5cbacked Yes | 35c | 28.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23e8…9373backed No | 73c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 56 | 75%42 W · 14 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 66c | 24.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 72c | 24.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 71c | 20.32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36e8…f207backed No | 73c | 16.47$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 46 | 67.4%31 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9d…1942backed No | 70c | 14.91$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.55 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0a…65abbacked No | 78c | 14.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.1 | 338 | 76.6%259 W · 79 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 78cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 73c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.85 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on August 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on August 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 39°C or higher on August 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.