Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on August 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd03cd5afc1ebb683d73400c0c49d601be5232bc2adba58e34557363be2e40374
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,109
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,551
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,109 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 18c | 967.86$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$797.9 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 34c | 512.68$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.34 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…cd3cbacked No | 79c | 504.39$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.2 | 128 | 51.6%66 W · 62 L | -13.1wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc878…a6f3backed Yes | 75c | 416.67$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.21 | 156 | 46.8%73 W · 83 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 41c | 376.34$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.48 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 13c | 339.96$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.98 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf4df…e6cfbacked No | 24c | 320$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.01 | 138 | 62.3%86 W · 52 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 19c | 317.26$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.46 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 71c | 295.51$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.08 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 76c | 254.95$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.17 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 67c | 180$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.04 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 30c | 164.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.41 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 9c | 120.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 16c | 119.62$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.48 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 44c | 103.33$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.33 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 77c | 101$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.77 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0db9…a4a8backed No | 29c | 73.05$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -16.6wins | -0.29per pick | 61cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 27-0.20 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 60c | 72.33$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.73 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9907…8a50backed Yes | 47c | 66.25$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.96 | 80 | 46.3%37 W · 43 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 18c | 65.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa595…cdf1backed Yes | 76c | 62.14$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.64 | 155 | 61.9%96 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 47c | 61$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.67 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 41c | 59.9$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.07 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 74c | 58.03$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.89 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 40c | 54.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.97 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabfc…173ebacked Yes | 22c | 53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.34 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 73c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 56c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.55 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 73c | 32$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.36 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e40…3797backed Yes | 67c | 28.79$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 34 | 97.1%33 W · 1 L | +17.6wins | +0.52per pick | 45cpaid | +136.5%equal weight | 83+0.30 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 39c | 28.36$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.44 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 37c | 27$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.96 | 207 | 39.1%81 W · 126 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked No | 77c | 25.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 79c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked Yes | 76c | 20.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.79 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 75c | 18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 77c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c59…0c2cbacked No | 67c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 97 | 59.8%58 W · 39 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x36e8…f207backed No | 78c | 14.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 46 | 67.4%31 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on August 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 39°C or higher on August 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.