Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on August 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x028ab250dbc3af4ffc27b038b43e12228face1b6927a1b7fbca29a0249b28627
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,894
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,334
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,894 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 46c | 1,431$665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$665.16 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 53c | 525.62$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.34 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 40c | 405.41$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.74 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 56c | 306$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.34 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 47c | 258.63$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.66 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…fc14backed No | 53c | 250$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.5 | 203 | 47.8%97 W · 106 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17d2…4142backed No | 53c | 250$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.5 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea0…85b3backed No | 53c | 250$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.5 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x25e5…96bdbacked No | 46c | 217$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…11a0backed Yes | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +23%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 50c | 183.74$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.13 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 59c | 182$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.4 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 43c | 175.9$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.96 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 37c | 170.45$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.43 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc878…a6f3backed Yes | 48c | 141$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.36 | 156 | 46.8%73 W · 83 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabff…6b73backed Yes | 47c | 120$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.4 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 55c | 104.74$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.56 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 54c | 104$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.84 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x268f…bbd7backed Yes | 46c | 102.61$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.16 | 99 | 38.4%38 W · 61 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 55c | 100.1$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.04 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1f…eb96backed No | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 231 | 46.3%107 W · 124 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 51c | 97$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.85 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…8487backed No | 56c | 87.32$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.53 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 27c | 86$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.78 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabfc…173ebacked Yes | 42c | 80.69$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 49c | 78.87$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.65 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed Yes | 46c | 73.72$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.91 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 51c | 71.5$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.76 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 48c | 69.21$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.97 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 38c | 68.46$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.47 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 60c | 66.1$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.49 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 35c | 64.76$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked No | 58c | 64.62$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.43 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 48c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 46c | 60$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 57c | 58.6$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.97 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed No | 51c | 57.69$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.27 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 53c | 55$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.85 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 66c | 54.6$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.85 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa087…91f7backed Yes | 33c | 54$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 176 | 35.2%62 W · 114 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 52c | 51.88$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.17 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6780…41ccbacked Yes | 68c | 51.3$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.86 | 270 | 51.1%138 W · 132 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 49c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed No | 31c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed Yes | 61c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 59c | 42.16$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…3017backed No | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 152 | 58.6%89 W · 63 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 34c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 39c | 38.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 53c | 38.71$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.01 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed No | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…395bbacked Yes | 33c | 37.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 336 | 28.9%97 W · 239 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 63c | 36.1$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.23 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 50c | 33.6$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 60c | 31.48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 54c | 28.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 51c | 28.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d5…ce23backed Yes | 50c | 28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 150 | 62.7%94 W · 56 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ecc…d023backed Yes | 61c | 27.86$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.86 | 106 | 47.2%50 W · 56 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked Yes | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…443bbacked Yes | 53c | 26.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 69c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 48c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 55c | 21.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked Yes | 52c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43eb…3d85backed Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe828…ae41backed Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 90 | 27.8%25 W · 65 L | -10.0wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9d…1942backed No | 55c | 18.74$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.38 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Yes | 55c | 18.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x598f…528bbacked Yes | 62c | 17.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 64c | 17.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb699…4e20backed No | 70c | 16.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.83 | 213 | 52.1%111 W · 102 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on August 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on August 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 39°C or higher on August 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.