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Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on August 26?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$9,831
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$12,040

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,831 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7c63…93d4backed No59c588$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344.7410,95237.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L+432.6wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+16%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x180e…29dfbacked Yes39c555.89$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$341.6862960.3%379 W · 250 L+27.8wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x229c…b966backed No12c424.69$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.981,93638.1%737 W · 1,199 L+296.8wins+0.15per pick23cpaid+23.4%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No56c407.51$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.986,16649.3%3,038 W · 3,128 L-117.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4829…97ebbacked No27c386.02$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.4741651.9%216 W · 200 L+17.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+14.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9cfb…decbbacked Yes55c365.45$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.4518145.3%82 W · 99 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb87f…f7d4backed Yes39c222.35$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.6325158.6%147 W · 104 L+14.4wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+10.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes47c219.84$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.8826556.2%149 W · 116 L+16.2wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+13.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9c95…52dbbacked No48c187.36$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.618947.6%90 W · 99 L+11.6wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+20.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No31c180.11$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.474,44253.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L-17.6wins0.00per pick54cpaid-11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f98…e397backed Yes52c170$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.637652.4%197 W · 179 L+4.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ec7…12f7backed No59c169.01$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002532%8 W · 17 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-35.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe40a…e4a2backed No51c154.98$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.681,90155.9%1,062 W · 839 L-33.7wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-11.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe630…ef20backed No68c150.81$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.6635283.8%295 W · 57 L+39.0wins+0.11per pick73cpaid+15.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x1fc9…8b5ebacked Yes50c148.63$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.0516347.9%78 W · 85 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+2.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8958…656dbacked No32c141.24$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.2813861.6%85 W · 53 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x379a…4b1abacked Yes42c137.01$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.6458247.8%278 W · 304 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No24c132.56$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.36,90553.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L+422.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd7c2…e1e0backed Yes41c130.85$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.3326253.8%141 W · 121 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No47c127.19$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.299,96245.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L-309.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d69…7a63backed No61c120$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.21,31454%709 W · 605 L-26.1wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc662…0927backed No61c119.38$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.441,26858.4%740 W · 528 L-1.4wins0.00per pick58cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28ea…7367backed Yes42c118.4$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.722,20162.2%1,370 W · 831 L-0.5wins0.00per pick62cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x89df…4bf0backed No61c117.35$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.58616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.27per pick44cpaid-67.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa9b7…f43cbacked No59c111.39$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.9360032%192 W · 408 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb6fb…c038backed Yes40c111$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.663733.4%213 W · 424 L+24.0wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9eda…6e19backed No45c100$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4578255.4%433 W · 349 L-12.6wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes54c99.37$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.74,00947.3%1,897 W · 2,112 L+71.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No59c98.77$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.564,46765.1%2,907 W · 1,560 L+14.9wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc39d…adafbacked Yes44c93.97$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.384045%18 W · 22 L-3.0wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-14.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No50c90.79$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.224,73947.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L-186.8wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-13%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No61c88.07$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.113,81065.8%2,508 W · 1,302 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No20c87.06$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.57,2339.3%675 W · 6,558 L-1,116.1wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.8%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x7eb5…9400backed No59c81$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.7957757.7%333 W · 244 L+10.5wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc84e…c63cbacked No61c81$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.4130%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3c11…33c9backed No49c80.88$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.3892761.7%572 W · 355 L+17.4wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x532b…ccccbacked Yes77c74.09$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.769671.9%69 W · 27 L+8.6wins+0.09per pick63cpaid+19.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes40c65.18$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.396,89139.4%2,717 W · 4,174 L+269.8wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-19.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed No45c62.97$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.331,33550.9%680 W · 655 L-35.8wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed No19c62.54$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.0964624.5%158 W · 488 L-19.1wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-43.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No25c60$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,18959.7%1,306 W · 883 L+26.7wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x012f…400dbacked Yes42c59.99$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.845630%137 W · 319 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1181…030dbacked No34c59.85$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.52147.6%10 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-16.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda61…2b5fbacked No52c58.79$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.487844.9%35 W · 43 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-17.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3646…ba5abacked Yes51c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.6841041.5%170 W · 240 L+33.3wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+22.2%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No61c50$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.74,14856.7%2,351 W · 1,797 L+51.1wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4fb…32c8backed Yes59c49.86$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.5420851.9%108 W · 100 L+14.2wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+15.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xebb1…e7afbacked No44c46.96$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.7162044%273 W · 347 L+25.3wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7bed…c72dbacked No58c45.79$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.56333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.34per pick67cpaid-55.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdaee…f0f7backed Yes46c45.5$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.57475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.21per pick54cpaid+64.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes40c44.08$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.4531848.7%155 W · 163 L+32.0wins+0.10per pick39cpaid+25.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes42c43.31$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.254,03235.6%1,436 W · 2,596 L+42.8wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No57c43$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.415,00353.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L+31.9wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes41c40.12$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.671,69752.5%891 W · 806 L-42.5wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2753…e28abacked Yes67c39.72$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.2244760%268 W · 179 L+18.9wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+3.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9006…9fb8backed Yes48c39.46$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.4929337.5%110 W · 183 L+13.2wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+5.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf901…f17dbacked No57c37.84$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.57560%3 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick61cpaid+6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe2d…da35backed No58c37.1$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.534667.6%234 W · 112 L+16.1wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+7.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No61c36.83$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.475,25549.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L-163.8wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x655c…4420backed No60c36.35$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.8199757.2%570 W · 427 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5fc1…647abacked Yes75c35.27$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.8263247.3%299 W · 333 L-9.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No44c35$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.42,17653.1%1,156 W · 1,020 L+36.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8383…cb59backed No74c34.82$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.7352743.6%230 W · 297 L+31.5wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+6.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfca6…6595backed No53c33.25$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6812064.2%77 W · 43 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+1.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8373…f0bcbacked No46c32$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7224158.5%141 W · 100 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac64…866ebacked No46c28.19$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.981457.5%468 W · 346 L-0.1wins0.00per pick58cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaebb…9922backed Yes77c26.51$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.12454.2%13 W · 11 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick48cpaid-10.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa600…19c4backed No57c26$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.821442.9%6 W · 8 L-2.0wins-0.14per pick57cpaid-37.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5284…27f5backed Yes44c25.59$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.327944.4%124 W · 155 L-14.9wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-12%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd358…cfbdbacked Yes50c25$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.51952.6%10 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+16.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e5e…35c9backed No54c25$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.519750.8%100 W · 97 L-15.4wins-0.08per pick59cpaid-14.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xca61…cd2dbacked Yes44c24.86$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.92475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.23per pick52cpaid+62.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1ca4…6aa2backed No58c24.74$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2414240.1%57 W · 85 L-11.1wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-24%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xa589…9ec9backed No60c24.4$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.643151.6%16 W · 15 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77b8…e849backed No62c23.31$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.385156.9%29 W · 22 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No58c23$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.397,59237.5%2,849 W · 4,743 L+96.8wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked Yes46c22.3$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.042,34058.7%1,373 W · 967 L-4.1wins0.00per pick59cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No49c21$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.325,83660%3,502 W · 2,334 L-112.4wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c9a…0cd4backed No62c20.4$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.6513351.9%69 W · 64 L-5.6wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-10.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe188…c1d0backed No60c20.33$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.321146.9%99 W · 112 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5aad…dc28backed Yes51c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.872233.4%241 W · 481 L+32.9wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+14.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd886…1746backed No59c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.89055.6%50 W · 40 L-6.5wins-0.07per pick63cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x813f…26ecbacked No58c18.48$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7294162.3%586 W · 355 L-24.3wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-4.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No56c18$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.161,61561.9%999 W · 616 L+19.4wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes77c18$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.1467838.6%262 W · 416 L+12.7wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.