Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on August 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa1a422b838f046ef3a2358cc37387f1d5f03534cc1c8eea92899d03e54b9cb7a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,898
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,229
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,898 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed Yes | 30c | 2,383$714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$714.02 | 478 | 45.2%216 W · 262 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa059…dbcfbacked No | 70c | 2,000$1,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +3.0wins | +0.33per pick | 56cpaid | +91.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 34c | 379.41$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.76 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f4…f04cbacked Yes | 31c | 245.26$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.5 | 198 | 38.9%77 W · 121 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed Yes | 36c | 205$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.01 | 376 | 52.4%197 W · 179 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 69c | 200$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 3,064 | 33.5%1,027 W · 2,037 L | +13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 71c | 191.72$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.6 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 75c | 175.6$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.37 | 4,442 | 53.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L | -17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 34c | 165.33$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.97 | 6,166 | 49.3%3,038 W · 3,128 L | -117.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 70c | 161$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.3 | 5,255 | 49.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L | -163.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 62c | 160$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.9 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 65c | 153.12$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.76 | 2,201 | 62.2%1,370 W · 831 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8958…656dbacked No | 68c | 140.64$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.59 | 138 | 61.6%85 W · 53 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 40c | 133$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.29 | 637 | 33.4%213 W · 424 L | +24.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 64c | 119.99$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.74 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8220…2d1ebacked No | 66c | 102$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.68 | 82 | 26.8%22 W · 60 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 450 | 59.1%266 W · 184 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 69c | 97.63$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.14 | 10,044 | 44.8%4,500 W · 5,544 L | +257.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1181…030dbacked Yes | 11c | 92.95$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 46c | 66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.19 | 6,891 | 39.4%2,717 W · 4,174 L | +269.8wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 38c | 61.78$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.04 | 1,067 | 50.7%541 W · 526 L | +29.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked Yes | 37c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 456 | 30%137 W · 319 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked No | 67c | 56.95$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.99 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 34c | 56.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 600 | 32%192 W · 408 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 34c | 51.7$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 447 | 60%268 W · 179 L | +18.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 75c | 51.48$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.87 | 2,189 | 59.7%1,306 W · 883 L | +26.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 32c | 50.18$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 855 | 48.7%416 W · 439 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 65c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 4,148 | 56.7%2,351 W · 1,797 L | +51.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 43c | 48.52$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.53 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 66c | 48.28$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.33 | 892 | 59.8%533 W · 359 L | +18.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 42c | 45.26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 1,023 | 40.1%410 W · 613 L | +15.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 66c | 40.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.02 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 64c | 40.93$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.67 | 4,467 | 65.1%2,907 W · 1,560 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…c1d0backed Yes | 36c | 39.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 211 | 46.9%99 W · 112 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda61…2b5fbacked Yes | 36c | 37.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe58b…d6f5backed Yes | 33c | 36.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 75 | 32%24 W · 51 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 38c | 35.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 535 | 48.2%258 W · 277 L | +21.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 64c | 35.38$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 1,632 | 60.7%990 W · 642 L | -18.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 61c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 2,176 | 53.1%1,156 W · 1,020 L | +36.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 54c | 32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 5,193 | 68.3%3,546 W · 1,647 L | +70.8wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 64c | 32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 241 | 58.5%141 W · 100 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 34c | 31.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 646 | 24.5%158 W · 488 L | -19.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 38c | 31.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3,649 | 53.2%1,943 W · 1,706 L | +83.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e56…3aebbacked No | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.17per pick | 72cpaid | +26%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 6,905 | 53.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L | +422.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8177…6a9bbacked Yes | 35c | 29.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 37c | 28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 552 | 38.8%214 W · 338 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8192…871ebacked No | 64c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 112 | 53.6%60 W · 52 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 60c | 23.54$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.33 | 814 | 57.5%468 W · 346 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6288…fd46backed No | 67c | 23.3$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.58 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 60c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 5,836 | 60%3,502 W · 2,334 L | -112.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 64c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 989 | 52.3%517 W · 472 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 65c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.37 | 5,489 | 56%3,075 W · 2,414 L | -123.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 72c | 17.59$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.98 | 1,451 | 52.3%759 W · 692 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on August 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on August 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on August 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on August 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.