MLB · resolved market
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x88398d3b5082f2d0860bbe5cb9a35da4f227cf31da8fc36e7f5827715123d1cd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $62,745
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $63,388
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,745 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 46c | 19,059$8,727 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,727.03 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bff…fc26backed Over | 44c | 14,002$6,161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,160.86 | 436 | 47%205 W · 231 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 55c | 8,528$4,675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,853.58 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 45c | 5,916$2,682 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,234 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Under | 54c | 3,200$1,733 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,467 | 958 | 50%479 W · 479 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 59c | 3,096$1,814 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,282.7 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 54c | 2,970$1,604 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,365.84 | 4,477 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,291 L | -47.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 54c | 2,048$1,106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$942.08 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73e8…cd6fbacked Under | 54c | 1,657$894 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$763.55 | 360 | 48.6%175 W · 185 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 55c | 1,568$861 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$706.29 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 61c | 1,307$797 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510.05 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 42c | 1,296$542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$542.3 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 54c | 1,097$592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504.62 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Under | 54c | 899.61$486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.82 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Under | 54c | 888$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.48 | 866 | 53%459 W · 407 L | +16.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Over | 45c | 882.65$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.19 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4658…4131backed Under | 55c | 768$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.6 | 491 | 58.9%289 W · 202 L | +30.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 55c | 533.97$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.51 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…056fbacked Under | 55c | 508$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.32 | 273 | 48%131 W · 142 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 54c | 466.55$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.32 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 42c | 443.7$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.41 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 54c | 415$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.9 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 55c | 359.74$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.81 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 54c | 325$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.96 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Over | 46c | 246.6$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.44 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 55c | 238$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.1 | 413 | 46.7%193 W · 220 L | -10.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8c…e040backed Over | 41c | 205.32$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.2 | 175 | 48%84 W · 91 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 56c | 187$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.28 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb88…0e4cbacked Under | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 104 | 65.4%68 W · 36 L | +8.2wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x796f…00f6backed Under | 59c | 173.96$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.58 | 272 | 44.9%122 W · 150 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 56c | 128.94$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.73 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc72…2888backed Over | 19c | 122$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.18 | 129 | 24.8%32 W · 97 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8a…24c2backed Over | 45c | 114$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.3 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb8…7017backed Over | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 133 | 44.4%59 W · 74 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf15…a1febacked Over | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 151 | 47.7%72 W · 79 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b94…09dcbacked Over | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 114 | 41.2%47 W · 67 L | -8.3wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -14%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…2bc3backed Under | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 541 | 46.8%253 W · 288 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Over | 44c | 99.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Under | 56c | 90.36$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.33 | 478 | 52.3%250 W · 228 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Under | 32c | 89.86$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.43 | 779 | 52.1%406 W · 373 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a9…68b6backed Over | 45c | 80$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 55c | 72.24$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.51 | 2,944 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,543 L | +4.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd4…de15backed Under | 63c | 71.1$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.26 | 171 | 60.8%104 W · 67 L | +11.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 45c | 68.2$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.69 | 483 | 39.8%192 W · 291 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66ac…5e75backed Under | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3c…35cfbacked Over | 45c | 64$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 127 | 52%66 W · 61 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…c893backed Under | 52c | 63.31$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.39 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed Over | 44c | 58.64$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 81 | 42%34 W · 47 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5016…ada1backed Under | 56c | 54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.76 | 356 | 50.6%180 W · 176 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2396…9485backed Over | 45c | 44.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 287 | 51.9%149 W · 138 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 36c | 41.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x360a…1098backed Over | 48c | 38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Under | 32c | 37.57$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.68 | 473 | 46.5%220 W · 253 L | +25.7wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x657c…66a3backed Over | 48c | 37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 88 | 55.7%49 W · 39 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x641d…eeedbacked Under | 54c | 34.87$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.04 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Over | 45c | 33.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Under | 54c | 32.78$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Over | 46c | 32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 881 | 47.8%421 W · 460 L | +4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49c5…3de7backed Over | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 341 | 49.3%168 W · 173 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 48c | 29.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Over | 57c | 25.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60d0…2e36backed Under | 51c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.7 | 205 | 52.7%108 W · 97 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03f8…99d0backed Under | 64c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.07 | 121 | 52.9%64 W · 57 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 79c | 15.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5this page
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore OriolesBaltimore Orioles won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore OriolesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.