MLB · resolved market
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9ae41750c82eecfb9c1febaf746a6826b6883820d9fe5f72a0576b263f861d35
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $76,351
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $76,527
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $76,351 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 48c | 54,156$25,990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,990.04 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Over | 52c | 20,000$10,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,600 | 856 | 45.3%388 W · 468 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 47c | 14,225$6,680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,679.6 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad4…6866backed Over | 52c | 11,111$5,778 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,333.28 | 158 | 49.4%78 W · 80 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Over | 52c | 7,862$4,088 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,773.75 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 52c | 6,580$3,422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,158.4 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 53c | 6,554$3,474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,080.91 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Over | 53c | 3,000$1,590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,410 | 452 | 52.4%237 W · 215 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 52c | 2,937$1,538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,398.28 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 52c | 2,780$1,455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,325.27 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Under | 48c | 1,950$936 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$936 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Over | 52c | 1,600$832 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$768 | 644 | 52.2%336 W · 308 L | +26.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Over | 52c | 1,569$816 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$752.94 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed Over | 52c | 1,200$624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576 | 562 | 53.2%299 W · 263 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Over | 53c | 1,067$566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501.49 | 680 | 53.2%362 W · 318 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0dae…72febacked Over | 54c | 787.28$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.15 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 53c | 763.63$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.91 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 53c | 641.78$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.84 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 48c | 510.81$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.63 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96d9…18a0backed Over | 51c | 500$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245 | 224 | 48.7%109 W · 115 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…056fbacked Under | 49c | 440$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.93 | 274 | 48.2%132 W · 142 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x796f…00f6backed Over | 54c | 400$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186 | 272 | 44.9%122 W · 150 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 52c | 302.27$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.09 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Over | 53c | 297.7$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.92 | 707 | 44.7%316 W · 391 L | -22.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85b3…33efbacked Over | 53c | 286.43$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.62 | 78 | 60.3%47 W · 31 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa61…7f3bbacked Over | 53c | 247.17$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.17 | 151 | 53%80 W · 71 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Over | 52c | 246.09$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.52 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 52c | 194.12$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.41 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 79c | 173$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.61 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 63c | 138.07$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.47 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Over | 53c | 136.69$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.24 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3c…35cfbacked Over | 53c | 128$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.16 | 127 | 52%66 W · 61 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Under | 47c | 127.48$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.92 | 478 | 52.3%250 W · 228 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbee2…6527backed Over | 61c | 122.95$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.95 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf15…a1febacked Under | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 151 | 47.7%72 W · 79 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b94…09dcbacked Under | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 114 | 41.2%47 W · 67 L | -8.3wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -14%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb8…7017backed Under | 48c | 104.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 133 | 44.4%59 W · 74 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2396…9485backed Under | 48c | 97.5$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 287 | 51.9%149 W · 138 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed Over | 52c | 95$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.6 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8956…755fbacked Over | 52c | 80$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 216 | 56%121 W · 95 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09da…50bcbacked Over | 52c | 61.42$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.48 | 305 | 54.4%166 W · 139 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Over | 53c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 788 | 54.6%430 W · 358 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2889…edcfbacked Over | 54c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed Over | 53c | 58.64$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.56 | 81 | 42%34 W · 47 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 48c | 55$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Over | 53c | 52$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.45 | 882 | 47.7%421 W · 461 L | +3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 47c | 45.56$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.41 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 59c | 33.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.82 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Under | 47c | 28.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcac7…37d8backed Over | 52c | 26.71$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.82 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e1b…aa71backed Under | 47c | 23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 100 | 48%48 W · 52 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd355…e402backed Over | 52c | 20.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.05 | 57 | 59.6%34 W · 23 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff70…78abbacked Over | 53c | 19.14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +3.9wins | +0.21per pick | 51cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb4cd…c041backed Over | 59c | 17.21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.98 | 250 | 53.2%133 W · 117 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5this page
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore OriolesBaltimore Orioles won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore OriolesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.