Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Tearlaments (BO1)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x895fed52d5245b2eccb296cfccc45055180e50295d7c39f3444f3fdf50334244

Rebuilt 13 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Team Falconsof Team Falcons, Tearlaments
Resolved: Nov 29, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $94,884
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $103,770

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $94,884 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Dota2
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x507e…beaebacked Tearlaments	14c	10,196$1,477 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,476.93	2,012	44.2%889 W · 1,123 L	+36.6wins	+0.02per pick	42cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcccc…dbddbacked Tearlaments	10c	5,908$598 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$597.79	199	43.2%86 W · 113 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Tearlaments	32c	4,118$1,317 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,317.07	1,821	45%820 W · 1,001 L	+33.5wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Tearlaments	10c	3,000$310 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$310	894	40.3%360 W · 534 L	+1.3wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5388…4d5abacked Tearlaments	12c	3,000$350 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$350	218	47.2%103 W · 115 L	+16.5wins	+0.08per pick	40cpaid	+16.3%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xde17…68d2backed Tearlaments	7c	2,466$181 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$181.03	179	50.3%90 W · 89 L	+14.7wins	+0.08per pick	42cpaid	+8.1%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9ae8…c2a8backed Tearlaments	11c	2,325$252 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$252.5	130	45.4%59 W · 71 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8942…9ea9backed Tearlaments	7c	1,968$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	69	43.5%30 W · 39 L	-3.4wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-22.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd727…eccebacked Team Falcons	77c	1,533$1,177 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$356	87	50.6%44 W · 43 L	-3.0wins	-0.03per pick	54cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x13fa…3facbacked Tearlaments	12c	1,500$180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$180	399	36.8%147 W · 252 L	+4.9wins	+0.01per pick	36cpaid	+6.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x693c…a7edbacked Tearlaments	8c	1,448$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	38	52.6%20 W · 18 L	+1.9wins	+0.05per pick	48cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3d7b…c33ebacked Team Falcons	36c	1,426$510 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$915.69	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	+0.5wins	+0.07per pick	50cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7809…64ccbacked Tearlaments	9c	1,275$115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$114.75	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba05…f8c0backed Tearlaments	13c	1,200$156 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$156	491	33.6%165 W · 326 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	33cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb569…5695backed Tearlaments	10c	1,197$117 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$116.69	190	47.9%91 W · 99 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x75c4…4cd0backed Tearlaments	9c	1,100$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99	19	52.6%10 W · 9 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	55cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf802…d91dbacked Tearlaments	6c	980.08$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	120	50.8%61 W · 59 L	-2.4wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4bee…ca01backed Team Falcons	77c	943.67$730 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$213.35	64	60.9%39 W · 25 L	+5.8wins	+0.09per pick	52cpaid	+10.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed Tearlaments	18c	904.39$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160.15	628	41.1%258 W · 370 L	-17.8wins	-0.03per pick	44cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1ee5…ac96backed Tearlaments	3c	885.7$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.3wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Tearlaments	10c	870.9$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.62	91	26.4%24 W · 67 L	-9.8wins	-0.11per pick	37cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa1fa…f3bebacked Team Falcons	73c	835.88$612 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$224.02	134	50.7%68 W · 66 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a5d…99ebbacked Tearlaments	26c	757.74$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	146	68.5%100 W · 46 L	+14.3wins	+0.10per pick	59cpaid	+13.5%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2ce0…8d6fbacked Team Falcons	45c	750$338 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$412.5	35	57.1%20 W · 15 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	58cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfe48…5895backed Tearlaments	14c	712.8$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	121	47.9%58 W · 63 L	+3.6wins	+0.03per pick	45cpaid	-1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x43b3…6193backed Tearlaments	4c	650$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	97	56.7%55 W · 42 L	+9.5wins	+0.10per pick	47cpaid	+7.6%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9966…f991backed Tearlaments	21c	646.71$136 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$135.81	14	28.6%4 W · 10 L	-0.6wins	-0.04per pick	33cpaid	-18.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xde53…e5bebacked Tearlaments	10c	621.98$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.16	253	48.6%123 W · 130 L	+2.2wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e66…8ca1backed Tearlaments	42c	609.59$253 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$253.42	28	64.3%18 W · 10 L	+1.2wins	+0.04per pick	60cpaid	-1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x06fc…74c9backed Tearlaments	18c	567.46$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102.46	19	63.2%12 W · 7 L	+2.9wins	+0.15per pick	48cpaid	+30.1%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x7a78…add7backed Tearlaments	11c	560$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.09	364	42.3%154 W · 210 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d60…be72backed Tearlaments	9c	508$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.02	199	49.2%98 W · 101 L	+8.7wins	+0.04per pick	45cpaid	+4.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe6ed…3ae6backed Tearlaments	14c	504.97$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.8	34	58.8%20 W · 14 L	+1.1wins	+0.03per pick	56cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xccf5…42f2backed Tearlaments	11c	500$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	574	55.4%318 W · 256 L	+6.5wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x20a5…de1bbacked Tearlaments	21c	500$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105	53	58.5%31 W · 22 L	+1.8wins	+0.03per pick	55cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x00d6…b2e0backed Tearlaments	10c	500$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	47	46.8%22 W · 25 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7753…73cebacked Tearlaments	67c	493.77$330 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$329.69	16	68.8%11 W · 5 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	72cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc7c…d9d7backed Tearlaments	21c	411.48$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.41	97	50.5%49 W · 48 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-15.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x824d…1271backed Tearlaments	6c	400$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	240	26.7%64 W · 176 L	-30.5wins	-0.13per pick	39cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	37-0.11 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Tearlaments	12c	393.75$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.61	869	49%426 W · 443 L	-3.5wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x51ec…a7b9backed Tearlaments	4c	380$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.4	94	23.4%22 W · 72 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Tearlaments	10c	374.92$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.74	44	38.6%17 W · 27 L	+1.0wins	+0.02per pick	36cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8330…b88fbacked Tearlaments	11c	363.64$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	83	30.1%25 W · 58 L	-3.9wins	-0.05per pick	35cpaid	-16.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbb20…b9c0backed Tearlaments	10c	330$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.4	19	15.8%3 W · 16 L	-4.1wins	-0.22per pick	37cpaid	-63.9%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6dc0…699abacked Tearlaments	11c	300$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.95	641	23.4%150 W · 491 L	-18.6wins	-0.03per pick	26cpaid	-22.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb82b…3a09backed Tearlaments	9c	300$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	149	48.3%72 W · 77 L	-5.1wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc631…9655backed Tearlaments	11c	300$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	5	20%1 W · 4 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-55.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe24c…8f5bbacked Tearlaments	11c	280.42$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.12	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d42…7442backed Tearlaments	40c	250.25$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+1.2wins	+0.30per pick	45cpaid	+81.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xaacf…5f84backed Tearlaments	69c	250$173 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$172.5	592	50.5%299 W · 293 L	-20.7wins	-0.03per pick	54cpaid	-10%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x091e…3432backed Tearlaments	45c	222.22$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	114	52.6%60 W · 54 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x209e…8bb4backed Tearlaments	11c	222$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.42	805	44.6%359 W · 446 L	-25.8wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2133…7903backed Tearlaments	21c	209.52$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44	344	43.9%151 W · 193 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0050…2eb8backed Tearlaments	11c	198.89$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	26	46.2%12 W · 14 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-19%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4b2…4ab2backed Tearlaments	18c	178.57$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	282	44%124 W · 158 L	-5.1wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe4da…1772backed Tearlaments	11c	160$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.6	70	47.1%33 W · 37 L	-2.4wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4b84…48e3backed Tearlaments	13c	157$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	30	50%15 W · 15 L	+0.8wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+22.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x988d…9899backed Tearlaments	10c	149.48$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.95	133	46.6%62 W · 71 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd09…e5a4backed Tearlaments	31c	119.45$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.55	2	50%1 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Tearlaments	11c	117.82$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.96	779	41.1%320 W · 459 L	-7.9wins	-0.01per pick	42cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Tearlaments	49c	107.02$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.51	301	38.9%117 W · 184 L	-20.3wins	-0.07per pick	46cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x30db…07c3backed Tearlaments	15c	106.67$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	544	45.8%249 W · 295 L	-10.5wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfdf7…0426backed Tearlaments	15c	102.83$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.94	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5fd8…a5bebacked Tearlaments	14c	85.33$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	203	39.9%81 W · 122 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7163…3601backed Tearlaments	40c	61.43$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.37	85	60%51 W · 34 L	+9.4wins	+0.11per pick	49cpaid	+10.4%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc07d…5bd8backed Team Falcons	36c	50$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	+0.8wins	+0.12per pick	45cpaid	+9.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Team Falcons	52c	40.99$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.78	168	35.7%60 W · 108 L	-7.2wins	-0.04per pick	40cpaid	-27.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed Team Falcons	49c	40$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.24	31	58.1%18 W · 13 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	57cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x72c2…5e74backed Team Falcons	70c	30$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9	793	43.6%346 W · 447 L	+38.4wins	+0.05per pick	39cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4b04…6632backed Team Falcons	51c	20$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.9	27	33.3%9 W · 18 L	-2.3wins	-0.09per pick	42cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2546…5f6fbacked Team Falcons	74c	16.22$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.22	17	35.3%6 W · 11 L	-1.7wins	-0.10per pick	45cpaid	-40%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Tearlaments (BO1)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market