TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Winnipeg: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Liam Draxl

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Liam Draxlof Shintaro Mochizuki, Liam Draxl
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$48,306
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$48,371

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,306 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5b63…11a4backed Shintaro Mochizuki52c8,496$4,434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,434.444,93441.5%2,048 W · 2,886 L-77.0wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8ab…13a1backed Shintaro Mochizuki51c5,262$2,683 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,683.4127252.9%144 W · 128 L-17.3wins-0.06per pick59cpaid-13.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x32b4…8b21backed Liam Draxl59c3,990$2,363 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,627.463,60542.4%1,530 W · 2,075 L-43.2wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Shintaro Mochizuki10c3,349$346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$345.888,21745.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L+166.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Liam Draxl67c2,247$1,494 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$752.688,50542.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L-166.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Liam Draxl49c1,755$860 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8951,67948.1%808 W · 871 L+36.2wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Liam Draxl49c1,628$798 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$830.553,25648.2%1,570 W · 1,686 L-53.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Liam Draxl49c1,494$732 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$761.751,72948.9%845 W · 884 L+53.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+8.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Liam Draxl48c1,354$650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$704.0817931.8%57 W · 122 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick32cpaid+0.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Liam Draxl50c1,350$674 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$675.394,24152.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L+65.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x75a7…2d61backed Shintaro Mochizuki35c1,255$436 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$436.2471725.2%181 W · 536 L+9.9wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb77…ef9ebacked Liam Draxl80c1,250$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25094068.1%640 W · 300 L+9.0wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c62…7357backed Shintaro Mochizuki6c999.99$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$605625%14 W · 42 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick20cpaid+20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xde9f…d43cbacked Liam Draxl64c967.5$624 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$343.766,59950.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L+259.7wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xeea3…a6a2backed Liam Draxl75c948.86$708 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240.863,06857.3%1,757 W · 1,311 L+173.3wins+0.06per pick52cpaid-3.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc196…2e6bbacked Liam Draxl50c820$410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41012339%48 W · 75 L-8.8wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-20.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb8c6…7b39backed Shintaro Mochizuki6c643.94$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.538141.2%157 W · 224 L+10.0wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a62…4ab9backed Shintaro Mochizuki8c600$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4814536.6%53 W · 92 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick35cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7547…d158backed Liam Draxl48c600$288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3127,04939.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L-20.5wins0.00per pick40cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Liam Draxl48c584.66$281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$304.022,46238.5%948 W · 1,514 L+93.1wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+13.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Shintaro Mochizuki8c576.64$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.498,82836.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L-193.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-27.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4cd4…ce48backed Shintaro Mochizuki53c533.53$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280.129742.3%41 W · 56 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-10.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2de6…fb10backed Shintaro Mochizuki52c446.78$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23345256.2%254 W · 198 L+13.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x50ca…bfddbacked Shintaro Mochizuki21c419.52$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.160342%253 W · 350 L+11.1wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b6e…f544backed Shintaro Mochizuki15c328.79$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.9832329.7%96 W · 227 L-12.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-28.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5d63…9075backed Shintaro Mochizuki11c313.19$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.187741.3%362 W · 515 L-14.3wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0ce9…6cfdbacked Shintaro Mochizuki31c312.9$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9710753.3%57 W · 50 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x57cc…0fa7backed Shintaro Mochizuki51c286.99$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.3618542.7%79 W · 106 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x789c…0d10backed Liam Draxl76c251.44$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.4129149.5%144 W · 147 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-10.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Liam Draxl48c250$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13024051.3%123 W · 117 L+8.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+9.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x191f…4a8dbacked Liam Draxl49c250$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.532333.7%109 W · 214 L-8.5wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd169…8ff6backed Shintaro Mochizuki35c225$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.7528437.3%106 W · 178 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Shintaro Mochizuki17c215.74$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.342,76647.7%1,318 W · 1,448 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-18.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5505…aa44backed Liam Draxl48c208.33$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.3392237.4%345 W · 577 L-10.9wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8644…ad01backed Shintaro Mochizuki50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10026049.2%128 W · 132 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Shintaro Mochizuki21c199.99$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.411,70844.8%766 W · 942 L-18.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-22.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7a3…ad9ebacked Shintaro Mochizuki51c196.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10050952.1%265 W · 244 L-8.3wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Liam Draxl49c187.99$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.697,13949.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L+109.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Shintaro Mochizuki12c185.81$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.976,72036.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L-95.8wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-20.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe84f…b777backed Shintaro Mochizuki12c177.11$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.7837547.2%177 W · 198 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-8.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x50d7…f9bbbacked Shintaro Mochizuki17c156.67$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269832.7%32 W · 66 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd215…757abacked Liam Draxl73c145.41$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.2628954.3%157 W · 132 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8543…ff1bbacked Shintaro Mochizuki12c139.38$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.1422335.4%79 W · 144 L-4.7wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-30%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Shintaro Mochizuki17c133$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.615,41648.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L+14.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Shintaro Mochizuki15c129.28$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.76,44946.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L-42.9wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5dc8…e209backed Liam Draxl79c126.61$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.6139648%190 W · 206 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51e1…5ec9backed Liam Draxl78c124.35$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.3644018.9%83 W · 357 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick18cpaid-7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9f9…1622backed Shintaro Mochizuki52c119.32$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.7310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Shintaro Mochizuki16c110$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.64,60248.3%2,223 W · 2,379 L+34.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x26d6…caccbacked Shintaro Mochizuki20c107.02$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.191,48747.5%706 W · 781 L-19.1wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-21%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7cb2…f12fbacked Shintaro Mochizuki10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1036661.7%226 W · 140 L-8.0wins-0.02per pick64cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d0e…4f01backed Liam Draxl48c100$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.51,25044.7%559 W · 691 L-6.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a3d…316cbacked Liam Draxl49c100$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$511,95548%939 W · 1,016 L+16.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd325…8c5fbacked Shintaro Mochizuki11c100$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1122540.4%91 W · 134 L-9.1wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6796…453fbacked Liam Draxl56c99.99$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.9994447.7%450 W · 494 L+34.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+2.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7b89…f3a9backed Shintaro Mochizuki52c96.15$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504052.5%21 W · 19 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Shintaro Mochizuki15c95$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.524,92138.7%1,905 W · 3,016 L-20.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xecdb…c4c7backed Shintaro Mochizuki51c90.68$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.2455941.3%231 W · 328 L-5.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xebde…1de0backed Shintaro Mochizuki36c80$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.889134.3%306 W · 585 L-40.1wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-22.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1cba…b694backed Shintaro Mochizuki24c78.1$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.031,42944.2%631 W · 798 L-23.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-24.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4093…5749backed Liam Draxl63c72.45$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.912,85549.4%1,410 W · 1,445 L+21.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x323e…1ddabacked Liam Draxl48c70$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.763537.6%239 W · 396 L+20.7wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x571f…1d37backed Liam Draxl75c69.46$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.121,06554.7%583 W · 482 L+14.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2262…21a1backed Liam Draxl66c63.09$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.1676355.6%424 W · 339 L+29.9wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcfaa…28f7backed Liam Draxl49c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.593945.5%427 W · 512 L+20.8wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x64e8…7819backed Liam Draxl47c50$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.51,88235.5%669 W · 1,213 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x999a…9a25backed Shintaro Mochizuki20c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1060452.5%317 W · 287 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-12%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x583c…86c0backed Shintaro Mochizuki42c48.24$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.219038.9%35 W · 55 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick40cpaid+9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e37…5bdbbacked Shintaro Mochizuki53c46.7$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.7519852.5%104 W · 94 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x98db…dd17backed Shintaro Mochizuki34c46.4$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.575,35056.4%3,016 W · 2,334 L+228.4wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-6.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa032…2090backed Liam Draxl47c46.35$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.571,62449.8%809 W · 815 L-9.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6318…46b1backed Liam Draxl47c42.55$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.555,26128.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L-19.4wins0.00per pick29cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x885f…8ed9backed Shintaro Mochizuki50c33.37$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.6911144.1%49 W · 62 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a55…a82abacked Liam Draxl50c30$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1532747.7%156 W · 171 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0df7…1ec1backed Shintaro Mochizuki34c30$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.11,85357.7%1,069 W · 784 L+106.8wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+3.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xcc19…31c4backed Shintaro Mochizuki50c30$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1532546.2%150 W · 175 L+13.3wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x678a…05ffbacked Shintaro Mochizuki51c29.41$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1512453.2%66 W · 58 L-0.5wins0.00per pick54cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf768…7831backed Liam Draxl70c28.08$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.3178957.8%456 W · 333 L+56.2wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+8.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbcd6…f3c8backed Liam Draxl48c23.86$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.4147251.3%242 W · 230 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e4b…0a04backed Liam Draxl71c23.32$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.7625259.9%151 W · 101 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d34…d7b5backed Liam Draxl57c21$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.0152552.4%275 W · 250 L-17.3wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Liam Draxl58c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.42,08252.3%1,088 W · 994 L+19.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked Liam Draxl58c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.41,17552.9%622 W · 553 L+2.3wins0.00per pick53cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Liam Draxl58c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.41,72552.2%901 W · 824 L-8.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Liam Draxl58c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.41,76752.1%920 W · 847 L-2.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b53…db22backed Shintaro Mochizuki52c19.99$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.42634.6%9 W · 17 L-6.2wins-0.24per pick58cpaid-41.2%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x4c1e…befebacked Liam Draxl80c18.83$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.8317147.4%81 W · 90 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.