TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on March 24?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$167,859

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $167,859 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 184 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb539…aa3ebacked No0c10,422$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes14c7,333$1,051 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,281.8143021.9%94 W · 336 L+22.0wins+0.05per pick17cpaid+34.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes16c5,034$791 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,242.982,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes38c2,843$1,082 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,760.826,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No6c2,024$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.278,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7105…b731backed No2c1,648$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.9260%0 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf4e2…fb46backed Yes79c1,539$1,212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$326.9816738.9%65 W · 102 L+7.9wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+10.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No70c1,306$916 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$915.7258349.4%288 W · 295 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb10c…6d2cbacked No73c1,301$955 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$954.89714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.19per pick34cpaid-79.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1c69…9867backed No1c1,262$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.361758.8%10 W · 7 L+2.0wins+0.12per pick47cpaid+0.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2755…f761backed No72c1,255$910 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$910.0820%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x652f…eb3dbacked Yes11c1,094$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$968.1511515.7%18 W · 97 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick13cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5012…9a5cbacked No1c1,011$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.086934.8%24 W · 45 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-33.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc2a6…ad64backed No1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43b1…aba6backed Yes32c988.99$312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$676.5277428.6%221 W · 553 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-24.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9868…907ebacked No7c974.93$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.6534618.8%65 W · 281 L+15.2wins+0.04per pick14cpaid-15.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1838…29b4backed No2c966.63$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.3696313.7%132 W · 831 L+33.9wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+35.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked Yes17c923.76$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$764.256627.7%157 W · 409 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a03…84afbacked Yes11c899.99$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$800.9936930.6%113 W · 256 L+11.9wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x57ee…8112backed No2c884.18$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.781,72718%311 W · 1,416 L+74.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x85bd…7f75backed Yes75c872.88$656 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.6825362.8%159 W · 94 L+16.0wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+5.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6dce…4490backed Yes10c867.55$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$783.391,28519.5%250 W · 1,035 L+44.3wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ce3…4291backed Yes17c705.46$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$582.362,16523.8%516 W · 1,649 L+83.8wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7f6a…6c81backed No1c673.73$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes10c668.27$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$601.0360523.3%141 W · 464 L-21.1wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-22.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes13c617.48$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$534.171,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1a06…15a9backed Yes9c604.35$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$549.9656721.3%121 W · 446 L-25.2wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-18.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x80bd…a8cdbacked Yes20c596.87$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$479.6116840.5%68 W · 100 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xed22…6450backed Yes21c595$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$467.943139.2%169 W · 262 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes18c572.33$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$470.0536819.6%72 W · 296 L+21.9wins+0.06per pick14cpaid-4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x82f3…9f82backed No30c523.01$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.871,45524.7%359 W · 1,096 L-33.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b31…852cbacked Yes27c503.56$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$369.4925742.4%109 W · 148 L+8.6wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6316…7488backed No52c500$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26215334%52 W · 101 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-8.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes48c495.59$239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.272,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No57c484.94$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.0212,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes67c389.43$262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.7157659%340 W · 236 L-17.2wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No79c383.24$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.71,84263.5%1,170 W · 672 L-42.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8781…88c0backed Yes58c382.69$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.2532548.6%158 W · 167 L+11.8wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb6f1…710bbacked Yes25c380.59$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$285.453956.4%22 W · 17 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd721…57a7backed Yes9c350$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31845127.1%122 W · 329 L+7.1wins+0.02per pick25cpaid+25.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3557…ae87backed No15c328.36$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$491540%6 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-30.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe843…fd4cbacked No27c323.98$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.82250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No60c319.05$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.664,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbdf4…59b4backed No61c300$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1831323.1%3 W · 10 L-2.8wins-0.21per pick44cpaid-64.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb5d8…9dd0backed Yes20c300$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240.0512330.1%37 W · 86 L+5.3wins+0.04per pick26cpaid-12.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f87…0918backed Yes19c299.96$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.973732.4%12 W · 25 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes11c294.98$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$263.2830428%85 W · 219 L+14.9wins+0.05per pick23cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2b40…ced4backed Yes39c288.18$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.995852.5%503 W · 455 L+103.2wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+9.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No79c268.67$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.443,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefae…3acebacked Yes23c265.34$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.4626827.2%73 W · 195 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick26cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x91d9…141dbacked Yes23c259.69$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.411,25638.2%480 W · 776 L+53.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf641…2b4abacked Yes10c256.22$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.514915.4%23 W · 126 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick12cpaid+13.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x027c…b158backed No12c242.71$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.121216.7%2 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick12cpaid+32.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd65…c0b1backed Yes25c228.85$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.899162.6%57 W · 34 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+10.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes10c224.39$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.432,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xec2a…e917backed No71c222$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.66475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.14per pick61cpaid+38.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x094a…1274backed Yes25c219.29$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.297728.6%22 W · 55 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-9.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8203…cab2backed Yes24c208.29$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.31656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+10.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xae07…8059backed Yes22c206.31$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.0843525.3%110 W · 325 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-11.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f19…e819backed Yes57c203.49$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.4952935.7%189 W · 340 L+26.7wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+24%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes20c200.1$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.457,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb84…4fbcbacked No12c200$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2411025.5%28 W · 82 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-41.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes26c195.8$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.6817,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x865d…47aabacked Yes17c193.77$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.8316432.9%54 W · 110 L+12.7wins+0.08per pick25cpaid+47.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x99e7…44c3backed Yes10c190$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1716729.9%20 W · 47 L+3.7wins+0.06per pick24cpaid+3.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa530…88f6backed Yes19c188.33$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.548531.8%27 W · 58 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-25.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b5e…2b8dbacked Yes38c183.46$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.14560%3 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.22per pick38cpaid+45.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8e7f…7bfbbacked Yes39c179.23$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.234332.6%14 W · 29 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x36aa…a683backed Yes18c177.43$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.024520%9 W · 36 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-28.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8095…d7abbacked No75c170.88$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.59850%4 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-23.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x64a4…c103backed Yes24c170.58$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.0811038.2%42 W · 68 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7515…0b7ebacked Yes30c164.61$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.611435.7%5 W · 9 L+1.4wins+0.10per pick25cpaid+26.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe5a1…3840backed Yes25c150$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.511,15327.1%312 W · 841 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d07…6bf3backed Yes10c147.99$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.9319617.9%35 W · 161 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick12cpaid+12%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb5f8…8e32backed Yes80c147$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.8917956.4%101 W · 78 L+13.1wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb31e…0f11backed Yes71c145.42$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.211338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcaca…a0b6backed Yes45c138.98$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.5929653.4%158 W · 138 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-16.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes19c135.9$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.1793034%316 W · 614 L+53.0wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x57b7…bfe9backed No80c125.85$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.22540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick45cpaid+46.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5368…2d62backed Yes20c125.38$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.381,80427.4%494 W · 1,310 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes24c123.5$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.191,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No35c121.85$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.237,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x0ee6…0987backed Yes23c120$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.4933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x49d7…1635backed Yes21c117.35$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.85453.7%29 W · 25 L+3.7wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+16.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes11c116.99$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.121,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0057…b1c7backed Yes21c113.13$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.1614826.4%39 W · 109 L+0.4wins0.00per pick26cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfda7…cf3bbacked Yes18c111.89$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.892326.1%6 W · 17 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-20.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No69c111.68$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.011,59230.8%491 W · 1,101 L-6.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x91f2…e2d7backed Yes11c110.89$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.1516548.5%80 W · 85 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+15.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No35c110$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.252,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd77d…b11dbacked Yes73c107.24$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick63cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4b29…623bbacked Yes17c105.01$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.0826828.7%77 W · 191 L-1.3wins0.00per pick29cpaid-24.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a26…c335backed Yes11c105$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.4586226.8%231 W · 631 L+28.6wins+0.03per pick23cpaid+30.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x983a…ca05backed Yes31c100.17$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.862437.5%9 W · 15 L-2.5wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-24.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes20c100$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8034918.9%66 W · 283 L+18.7wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+40.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc3de…e227backed Yes12c100$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$883622.2%8 W · 28 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6cf…66c3backed Yes20c100$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.59341.9%39 W · 54 L-0.3wins0.00per pick42cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86da…1cf6backed Yes21c100$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7915345.8%70 W · 83 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8165…97b8backed Yes14c100$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8618550.3%93 W · 92 L-5.8wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes16c100$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8449038.8%190 W · 300 L+24.4wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+0.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.