Tennis · resolved market
US Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Alexandre Muller
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8a39ed38c196e2d0ec78ee6c33f056826b933f7d10fcc6a52a15f597a6235365
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tsitsipasof Tsitsipas, Muller
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $63,691
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $62,805
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $63,691 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5ba6…0f07backed Tsitsipas | 65c | 10,000$6,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,500 | 672 | 49.6%333 W · 339 L | -11.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37e4…c991backed Muller | 35c | 10,000$3,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,500 | 220 | 37.7%83 W · 137 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f8…56b6backed Tsitsipas | 45c | 5,950$2,680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,270.03 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…6243backed Muller | 36c | 5,628$2,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,049.65 | 178 | 33.1%59 W · 119 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed Tsitsipas | 56c | 3,837$2,144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,693.07 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | +4.1wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +145.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x96df…4caabacked Muller | 56c | 3,506$1,977 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,977.3 | 260 | 39.2%102 W · 158 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdc4…a880backed Muller | 26c | 3,380$889 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$888.7 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed Tsitsipas | 61c | 2,341$1,419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$922.55 | 93 | 54.8%51 W · 42 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27a9…8781backed Muller | 40c | 2,144$848 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$847.59 | 154 | 39.6%61 W · 93 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f2…1742backed Tsitsipas | 49c | 2,052$1,011 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,040.64 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 32cpaid | +66.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Muller | 35c | 2,039$714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$713.7 | 158 | 32.9%52 W · 106 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf80b…fa00backed Muller | 36c | 2,000$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720 | 159 | 57.2%91 W · 68 L | +15.8wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Muller | 35c | 1,846$646 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$646 | 149 | 49%73 W · 76 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe65f…a749backed Tsitsipas | 65c | 1,750$1,132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$618.5 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1484…cafebacked Tsitsipas | 64c | 1,742$1,115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$627.26 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…19e8backed Muller | 42c | 1,485$629 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$629.28 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54e7…e35fbacked Tsitsipas | 64c | 1,250$795 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455 | 129 | 54.3%70 W · 59 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3349…c0b8backed Tsitsipas | 65c | 1,000$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350 | 118 | 52.5%62 W · 56 L | -8.5wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Tsitsipas | 65c | 956.74$623 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.48 | 11,666 | 43.4%5,059 W · 6,607 L | +22.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Tsitsipas | 48c | 956$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$498.82 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0aa4…dbc5backed Muller | 39c | 949.19$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.02 | 123 | 35%43 W · 80 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1574…64c9backed Muller | 35c | 857.98$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.29 | 476 | 39.1%186 W · 290 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d76…9168backed Muller | 37c | 800$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296 | 375 | 40.8%153 W · 222 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x519f…2af7backed Tsitsipas | 65c | 773.23$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.23 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…099abacked Tsitsipas | 64c | 532$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.72 | 127 | 37%47 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Muller | 37c | 520.63$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.63 | 365 | 40.8%149 W · 216 L | -13.8wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6466…4633backed Tsitsipas | 51c | 520.31$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.31 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf54…3386backed Muller | 60c | 500$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.86 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d06…d48ebacked Muller | 37c | 405.41$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 28cpaid | -77.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Muller | 41c | 243.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 480 | 43.3%208 W · 272 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Muller | 41c | 243.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97ef…5289backed Muller | 41c | 243.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff72…512bbacked Tsitsipas | 45c | 224.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.49 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…4193backed Tsitsipas | 62c | 218.27$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.94 | 80 | 52.5%42 W · 38 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8af…4900backed Tsitsipas | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 173 | 49.1%85 W · 88 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe88e…a7d4backed Tsitsipas | 63c | 160.99$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.57 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Tsitsipas | 59c | 142.45$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.98 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7050…1dd5backed Tsitsipas | 64c | 128.92$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.81 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b2b…5752backed Muller | 40c | 107.38$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.18 | 214 | 54.7%117 W · 97 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Muller | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 629 | 52.1%328 W · 301 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad98…8733backed Muller | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +4.3wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xac43…4925backed Tsitsipas | 65c | 92.31$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.31 | 295 | 53.2%157 W · 138 L | -17.1wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d26…ccb8backed Tsitsipas | 65c | 92.31$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.31 | 137 | 62.8%86 W · 51 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x900b…34bcbacked Muller | 39c | 76.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +3.7wins | +0.20per pick | 38cpaid | +62%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc376…a8e7backed Muller | 22c | 73.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 128 | 52.3%67 W · 61 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x843e…3530backed Tsitsipas | 64c | 70.67$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.67 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Muller | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 312 | 55.4%173 W · 139 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f8…0ff2backed Muller | 37c | 49.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87a4…953ebacked Muller | 59c | 49.57$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.23 | 1,056 | 55.4%585 W · 471 L | -22.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Muller | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,339 | 46.6%1,090 W · 1,249 L | +55.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54ab…3699backed Tsitsipas | 65c | 43.14$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.1 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 62cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…7a75backed Tsitsipas | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 125 | 60%75 W · 50 L | -9.3wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab6…cfecbacked Muller | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 129 | 27.1%35 W · 94 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd2…6ab0backed Tsitsipas | 64c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60d4…f1e4backed Tsitsipas | 63c | 20.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.63 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.