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NBA · resolved market

1H Spread: Clippers (-2.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Clippersof Clippers, Warriors
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$10,414
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$12,425

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,414 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb416…4588backed Clippers54c1,831$989 inWon+$842.471643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-14%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Warriors46c761.15$349 inLost-$349.242,75350.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L+47.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Warriors46c723.73$333 inLost-$332.922,65749.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L+42.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1489…9924backed Warriors46c414.13$191 inLost-$190.519348.2%93 W · 100 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Warriors46c90.6$42 inLost-$41.6750346.5%234 W · 269 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x675c…4341backed Clippers55c86.74$48 inWon+$39.034348.8%21 W · 22 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Warriors45c63.8$29 inLost-$28.715,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f52…ce1bbacked Clippers55c62.08$34 inWon+$27.935358.5%31 W · 22 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick64cpaid-8.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xce27…8a7dbacked Clippers53c51.84$28 inWon+$24.1413441%55 W · 79 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb390…642bbacked Warriors50c39.08$19 inLost-$19.41,66150.3%836 W · 825 L-14.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8535…c307backed Clippers55c36.13$20 inWon+$16.48360.2%50 W · 33 L+6.1wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+13.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9bd9…084fbacked Warriors47c30$14 inLost-$14.137753.8%203 W · 174 L+12.0wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfc44…2483backed Clippers54c27.89$15 inWon+$12.83728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.18per pick46cpaid-25.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf793…6265backed Clippers54c21.61$12 inWon+$9.943557.1%20 W · 15 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.