NBA · resolved market
Kawhi Leonard: Points O/U 29.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd31ddb975bd158081e69f988894145217bfce157579a74298424469ccdc13e5f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,166
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,225
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,166 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9c0e…b4fbbacked Yes | 50c | 1,959$970 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$969.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked No | 50c | 1,097$548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$548.26 | 503 | 46.5%234 W · 269 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed No | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 1,752 | 40.6%712 W · 1,040 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7200…9299backed No | 54c | 608.23$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.69 | 369 | 54.7%202 W · 167 L | +28.0wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…c9e4backed Yes | 46c | 433.76$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.53 | 238 | 50.4%120 W · 118 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed No | 51c | 183.08$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.71 | 492 | 47.2%232 W · 260 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed No | 51c | 183.08$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.71 | 407 | 50.6%206 W · 201 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88a2…68a0backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 153 | 51%78 W · 75 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed No | 53c | 97.77$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.22 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Yes | 47c | 97.73$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.47 | 950 | 49.4%469 W · 481 L | +10.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec38…ca10backed Yes | 47c | 96.82$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.51 | 110 | 50.9%56 W · 54 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40a4…c6a9backed Yes | 43c | 88.92$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.94 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed No | 49c | 77.26$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.15 | 1,393 | 48.3%673 W · 720 L | +19.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac6c…d0d4backed Yes | 51c | 51.59$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 71 | 53.5%38 W · 33 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fff…3a96backed No | 70c | 49.1$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.73 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f5…3e7abacked No | 60c | 48.8$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.52 | 377 | 55.2%208 W · 169 L | +23.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6d4…4041backed No | 58c | 40.15$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.02 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 50cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked No | 48c | 40.04$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.92 | 269 | 57.2%154 W · 115 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb390…642bbacked Yes | 50c | 39.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 1,661 | 50.3%836 W · 825 L | -14.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc376…a8e7backed No | 51c | 38.06$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.65 | 317 | 48.9%155 W · 162 L | -12.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9eb4…1bd1backed Yes | 51c | 37.87$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.31 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -3.7wins | -0.15per pick | 47cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9b…cdeebacked No | 55c | 37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 786 | 39.2%308 W · 478 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1e8…2137backed No | 54c | 36.03$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.58 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74fd…1f08backed Yes | 67c | 27.87$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2c…dac5backed Yes | 49c | 26.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 423 | 48.5%205 W · 218 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…6c25backed Yes | 50c | 22.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f3…e279backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -18%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kawhi Leonard: Points O/U 29.5this page
- 1H Spread: Clippers (-2.5)Clippers won
- Bennedict Mathurin: Points O/U 13.5Yes won
- Brandin Podziemski: Points O/U 13.5Yes won
- Brook Lopez: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Darius Garland: Points O/U 19.5Yes won
- De'Anthony Melton: Points O/U 12.5No won
- Derrick Jones Jr.: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Draymond Green: Assists O/U 5.5Yes won
- Kawhi Leonard: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Kawhi Leonard: Rebounds O/U 7.5No won
- Kristaps Porzingis: Points O/U 19.5Yes won
- Kristaps Porzingis: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Spread: Clippers (-4.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Clippers (-5.5)Warriors won
- Stephen Curry: Points O/U 26.5Yes won
- Warriors vs. ClippersWarriors won
- Warriors vs. Clippers: 1H MoneylineClippers won
- Warriors vs. Clippers: 1H O/U 106.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Clippers: 1H O/U 111.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Clippers: O/U 219.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Clippers: O/U 220.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Clippers: O/U 221.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.