NBA · resolved market
Stephen Curry: Points O/U 26.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x78d794c9d45be51646d39977feb56aac04b0d1719943f1fa8093e8722922951b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,948
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,178
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,948 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9ca7…0c48backed Yes | 48c | 799.99$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415.99 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e82…752cbacked No | 52c | 677.59$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.35 | 1,204 | 55.3%666 W · 538 L | +52.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd9…bfe8backed No | 57c | 597.37$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.02 | 657 | 62.3%409 W · 248 L | +27.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf630…7e65backed No | 52c | 566.79$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.73 | 291 | 49.5%144 W · 147 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5788…fb06backed Yes | 43c | 238.36$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.99 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6742…fdf7backed Yes | 43c | 212.25$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.98 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +233.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71fd…1397backed Yes | 47c | 204.41$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.56 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.31per pick | 43cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb39d…b695backed Yes | 48c | 201.84$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.96 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5669…e058backed No | 53c | 199.98$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.99 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 51c | 197.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.13 | 194 | 34.5%67 W · 127 L | -10.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -20%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Yes | 44c | 195.86$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.76 | 950 | 49.4%469 W · 481 L | +10.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Yes | 40c | 178.32$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.99 | 931 | 45.8%426 W · 505 L | -25.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eda…4bb7backed No | 52c | 111.68$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.93 | 389 | 42.9%167 W · 222 L | -16.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…8964backed No | 53c | 106.38$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.38 | 806 | 53.6%432 W · 374 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb502…9d8bbacked Yes | 47c | 103$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.59 | 300 | 55.7%167 W · 133 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ad…4c1fbacked Yes | 48c | 101.31$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.87 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…f9d1backed No | 57c | 95$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.15 | 952 | 60.2%573 W · 379 L | +37.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cef…f81abacked No | 63c | 78.03$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.87 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x163e…324fbacked Yes | 47c | 61.8$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.75 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…8253backed Yes | 37c | 59.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +2.5wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x61db…90cdbacked Yes | 48c | 56.51$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.39 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f47…f611backed No | 51c | 55$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.05 | 63 | 44.4%28 W · 35 L | -8.3wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed No | 47c | 54.72$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.72 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40a4…c6a9backed Yes | 49c | 53.32$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.19 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72a9…44d3backed Yes | 54c | 50.68$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 284 | 55.3%157 W · 127 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked No | 53c | 46.36$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.76 | 377 | 53.8%203 W · 174 L | +12.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Yes | 43c | 44.92$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 660 | 46.8%309 W · 351 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8535…c307backed Yes | 47c | 41.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.89 | 83 | 60.2%50 W · 33 L | +6.1wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb390…642bbacked Yes | 47c | 41.2$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.84 | 1,661 | 50.3%836 W · 825 L | -14.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3893…8afbbacked Yes | 48c | 40.37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.99 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | +9.5wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x259f…14d5backed No | 52c | 37.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed No | 46c | 37.13$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 908 | 63.9%580 W · 328 L | +80.6wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed No | 53c | 33.61$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.81 | 969 | 56.3%546 W · 423 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c7c…ea1bbacked Yes | 46c | 31.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.76 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfad7…ae7ebacked Yes | 53c | 27.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.93 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18c7…7613backed Yes | 47c | 26.78$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -6.5wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Yes | 43c | 25.11$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.31 | 492 | 47.2%232 W · 260 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf5a…b830backed Yes | 48c | 24.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.59 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Stephen Curry: Points O/U 26.5this page
- 1H Spread: Clippers (-2.5)Clippers won
- Bennedict Mathurin: Points O/U 13.5Yes won
- Brandin Podziemski: Points O/U 13.5Yes won
- Brook Lopez: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Darius Garland: Points O/U 19.5Yes won
- De'Anthony Melton: Points O/U 12.5No won
- Derrick Jones Jr.: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Draymond Green: Assists O/U 5.5Yes won
- Kawhi Leonard: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Kawhi Leonard: Points O/U 29.5No won
- Kawhi Leonard: Rebounds O/U 7.5No won
- Kristaps Porzingis: Points O/U 19.5Yes won
- Kristaps Porzingis: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Spread: Clippers (-4.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Clippers (-5.5)Warriors won
- Warriors vs. ClippersWarriors won
- Warriors vs. Clippers: 1H MoneylineClippers won
- Warriors vs. Clippers: 1H O/U 106.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Clippers: 1H O/U 111.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Clippers: O/U 219.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Clippers: O/U 220.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Clippers: O/U 221.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.