Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on July 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8c035a9f8f419871f173635582373d03d1edf856eaa469565dbfaf25656b229e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,634
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,810
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,634 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 109 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 24c | 1,285$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.66 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 66c | 788.8$519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.25 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 63c | 324.16$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.22 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcef6…2adebacked Yes | 39c | 299.63$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.06 | 259 | 47.1%122 W · 137 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 70c | 298.5$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.15 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 5c | 295.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e9…f1ccbacked Yes | 18c | 266.87$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.89 | 139 | 59%82 W · 57 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbce…507dbacked No | 68c | 251.85$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.37 | 78 | 32.1%25 W · 53 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x139e…a5debacked Yes | 20c | 231.93$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 249 | 51.4%128 W · 121 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 31c | 215.85$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.94 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 51c | 202.7$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.56 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 36c | 200.79$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.31 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 31c | 200$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.71 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b42…405abacked Yes | 19c | 199.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 168 | 33.9%57 W · 111 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 68c | 188.67$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.01 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 19c | 176.93$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.34 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 23c | 176.02$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 24c | 172.15$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.17 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 19c | 169.8$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.43 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 36c | 167.48$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.02 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 25c | 159.57$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.42 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23fc…89f2backed Yes | 43c | 143.48$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.74 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 67c | 141.24$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.04 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 23c | 139.84$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.3 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…4534backed Yes | 36c | 139.74$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 257 | 47.5%122 W · 135 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3303…73e3backed Yes | 32c | 138.25$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.24 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 69c | 137.55$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.25 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 59c | 133.06$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.48 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2184…d271backed Yes | 32c | 130.66$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.81 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 23c | 125.4$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 42c | 124.66$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.11 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed No | 71c | 119.98$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.49 | 278 | 52.9%147 W · 131 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 29c | 111.85$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.99 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 77c | 106.44$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.66 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 71c | 104.8$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.36 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd988…6ce5backed Yes | 29c | 100.34$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.26 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 46c | 100.07$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.36 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88ee…054abacked Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked No | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.29 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe229…ea0fbacked No | 61c | 99.18$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.51 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 67c | 95.05$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.06 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 76c | 93.5$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.44 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 64c | 91.35$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.72 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 47c | 90.84$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 53c | 86.77$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.96 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 38c | 84.59$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.14 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf92…150fbacked Yes | 23c | 74.07$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 164 | 40.2%66 W · 98 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 28c | 71.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 22c | 70.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c8d…84afbacked Yes | 58c | 68.79$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | -5.0wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 36c | 67$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 29c | 66.66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 79c | 66$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 20c | 65.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 25c | 61.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5c7c…2d79backed Yes | 41c | 61.39$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 64 | 25%16 W · 48 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 28c | 58.82$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.47 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9399…ddbfbacked Yes | 18c | 56.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 31c | 54.85$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 22c | 54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 33c | 53.84$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x845c…a1b2backed Yes | 47c | 52.72$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.78 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 48c | 52.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22dd…0fb3backed No | 68c | 49.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 66c | 48$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.41 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 29c | 47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 62c | 46$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.32 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 76c | 46$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 69c | 44.7$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.86 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01e1…1243backed No | 66c | 44.53$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.14 | 28 | 75%21 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed Yes | 28c | 43.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 25c | 42.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf48c…8ec6backed Yes | 30c | 42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 31c | 41.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb410…56b7backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 75c | 37.07$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.27 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 65c | 36.97$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked Yes | 30c | 36.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…db44backed No | 69c | 35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.9 | 171 | 65.5%112 W · 59 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed No | 65c | 34.8$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.34 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 30c | 34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 65c | 33.8$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2545…91d9backed No | 76c | 32.91$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +36%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cf…ae32backed No | 63c | 32.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.11 | 80 | 61.3%49 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf57…52f2backed Yes | 34c | 31.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 64c | 29.86$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.68 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 53c | 28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b31…4eb6backed Yes | 55c | 26.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 219 | 64.8%142 W · 77 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 64c | 26.31$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.53 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadda…684cbacked No | 78c | 25.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 85 | 80%68 W · 17 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 56c | 22.73$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa453…23a9backed No | 79c | 22.14$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…ff15backed No | 68c | 22.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 269 | 58.4%157 W · 112 L | -16.9wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on July 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on July 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on July 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.