Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on July 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4b58a968ceae53f8914fab65742ad6bb35e67d925bb2d247103acf55abf264c1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,489
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,226
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,489 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 148 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 54c | 4,562$2,476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,086.17 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 37c | 742.72$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.83 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2309…67c6backed No | 45c | 741.44$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.65 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 47c | 682.92$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.51 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 47c | 510.4$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.29 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 33c | 509.29$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.85 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a72…a2abbacked No | 46c | 506$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.76 | 74 | 43.2%32 W · 42 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed No | 14c | 490.82$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.02 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 12c | 476.94$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.46 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 30c | 460.07$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.82 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 46c | 456$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.76 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 47c | 425.09$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.95 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 38c | 390.87$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.65 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbce…507dbacked Yes | 58c | 372.03$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.51 | 78 | 32.1%25 W · 53 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 36c | 355.36$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.48 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 46c | 346.74$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.77 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 45c | 338$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.45 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 39c | 298.5$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.34 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 50c | 241.7$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.4 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 51c | 233.41$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.25 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7353…b6c5backed Yes | 59c | 229.51$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.51 | 183 | 47%86 W · 97 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x331d…8846backed Yes | 51c | 219.15$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.88 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | +38.6wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd988…6ce5backed Yes | 60c | 200.57$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.06 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 53c | 200$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 47c | 191$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.48 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 34c | 185.66$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.12 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb784…2c8bbacked Yes | 80c | 180.92$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.92 | 36 | 75%27 W · 9 L | +5.9wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 45c | 166.66$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 21c | 165.29$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.14 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4149…8147backed Yes | 63c | 164.34$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.82 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | +7.6wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 44c | 156.08$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.98 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 46c | 155.09$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.34 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 67c | 150$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1f…67afbacked Yes | 70c | 142.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 58c | 140.25$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.35 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked No | 50c | 139.92$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.19 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 35c | 138.28$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.54 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21c7…0643backed Yes | 76c | 137.56$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.57 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes | 59c | 129.21$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.01 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 22c | 127.7$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.81 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 36c | 127$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.58 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc9e…251fbacked Yes | 61c | 126.99$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.16 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +16.0wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 48c | 126.12$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.28 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88ee…054abacked Yes | 67c | 124.99$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 51c | 120$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.8 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 65c | 114.42$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.53 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 34c | 111.19$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b42…405abacked Yes | 78c | 111.09$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.13 | 168 | 33.9%57 W · 111 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 46c | 108.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.7 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…13e5backed Yes | 68c | 106.94$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.11 | 85 | 43.5%37 W · 48 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 40c | 104$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcef6…2adebacked Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.45 | 259 | 47.1%122 W · 137 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40b6…92d5backed No | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.5 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -3.1wins | -0.24per pick | 63cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdf36…ffb0backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 159 | 39%62 W · 97 L | +14.4wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +28%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x53c0…33a5backed Yes | 68c | 99.99$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 226 | 45.1%102 W · 124 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 35c | 95.57$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 34c | 93.5$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.79 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 66c | 89.43$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.54 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 41c | 85.96$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.39 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 31c | 83.7$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 25c | 81.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.31 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadda…684cbacked No | 36c | 81$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.16 | 85 | 80%68 W · 17 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff32…7da9backed No | 14c | 79.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91ef…b0f2backed No | 23c | 79.18$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 168 | 32.7%55 W · 113 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 36c | 73.64$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.41 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 57c | 72.63$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.87 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 50c | 71.11$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.86 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 35c | 67.94$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.07 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed Yes | 62c | 66.05$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.98 | 247 | 51.8%128 W · 119 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 37c | 65.81$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.54 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…8ca0backed Yes | 78c | 65$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 79 | 69.6%55 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdab3…79b1backed Yes | 58c | 63.53$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.75 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | +6.5wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 55c | 63.02$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.32 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 36c | 62.72$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.63 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…f41bbacked No | 38c | 62$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 286 | 60.8%174 W · 112 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 59.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.45 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 57c | 59.54$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.4 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…5d00backed No | 36c | 59.51$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.72 | 103 | 45.6%47 W · 56 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 33c | 57.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 35c | 57.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38c7…1c86backed Yes | 56c | 55.27$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.07 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes | 64c | 54$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 69c | 53.43$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed Yes | 55c | 51.27$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.3 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fe…e62abacked No | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.78 | 236 | 77.1%182 W · 54 L | +23.3wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe67c…3de5backed No | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe47e…f8abbacked Yes | 80c | 49$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 240 | 66.3%159 W · 81 L | +13.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae5f…bc30backed Yes | 58c | 48.82$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.38 | 93 | 39.8%37 W · 56 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 74c | 48.13$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.52 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee88…49a4backed No | 49c | 47.78$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d6…eb5cbacked Yes | 54c | 47.35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.83 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 54c | 46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.98 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf48c…8ec6backed No | 41c | 45.64$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.69 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde64…a821backed No | 33c | 45.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc756…0ec3backed Yes | 50c | 45.48$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.74 | 132 | 66.7%88 W · 44 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1617…d790backed No | 27c | 45.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +100.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 44c | 45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cf…ae32backed Yes | 64c | 42.89$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.58 | 80 | 61.3%49 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01e1…1243backed No | 49c | 42.53$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.97 | 28 | 75%21 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 46c | 42.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on July 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on July 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.