TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Midterms · resolved market

Will Tim Cyr win the 2026 Tennessee Governor Democratic primary election?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$15,645
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$14,476

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,645 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7ac8…77cdbacked No72c3,734$2,693 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,041.5219643.4%85 W · 111 L+15.5wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+23.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes15c1,491$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.4918026.1%47 W · 133 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-13.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x721a…9295backed Yes34c748$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.325642.9%24 W · 32 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-22.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x458a…5941backed Yes5c659.3$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.3330%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes12c499.99$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$603718.9%7 W · 30 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick15cpaid-11.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3fa6…7ee4backed Yes6c413.21$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf30a…3583backed Yes32c300$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2aa0…ee01backed Yes34c300$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1021118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.16per pick34cpaid-63.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes7c234$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.38244.2%1 W · 23 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick7cpaid-58.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x88f3…baa8backed Yes33c225.5$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.42450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-17.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes5c225$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5849511.5%57 W · 438 L-17.6wins-0.04per pick15cpaid-27.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcc23…8bc9backed Yes13c200$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick21cpaid-13.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes7c198.48$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.421823.8%7 W · 175 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-50%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes14c103.24$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4513317.3%23 W · 110 L-10.0wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-25.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf992…ebb5backed Yes36c95$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.2616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.19per pick36cpaid-75.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4745…5916backed Yes33c85$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.056744.8%30 W · 37 L+0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-21.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes33c79.16$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.9666914.8%99 W · 570 L-105.6wins-0.16per pick31cpaid-66%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x51f2…38efbacked Yes32c75$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244330.2%13 W · 30 L-7.0wins-0.16per pick46cpaid-51.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x72a8…c016backed Yes32c51.63$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.521030%3 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.16per pick46cpaid-59.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xeec4…30b5backed Yes26c40$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.21127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-35.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x905d…2c17backed No64c25$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.111250%6 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-17.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d5b…6c2abacked Yes65c23$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.95250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid+11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05f4…7c4cbacked Yes55c23$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc2be…66b0backed No66c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.84100%4 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+44.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x74e0…af4bbacked No64c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.21266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+22.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x927e…a819backed No64c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.2250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid-21.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.