Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Tim Cyr win the 2026 Tennessee Governor Democratic primary election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8cf143be297d5061da05dd579728875ee528f31ac774e8f0d9a27142ea80a9b8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,645
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,476
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,645 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked No | 72c | 3,734$2,693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,041.52 | 196 | 43.4%85 W · 111 L | +15.5wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 15c | 1,491$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.49 | 180 | 26.1%47 W · 133 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed Yes | 34c | 748$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.32 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x458a…5941backed Yes | 5c | 659.3$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.33 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 12c | 499.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa6…7ee4backed Yes | 6c | 413.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…3583backed Yes | 32c | 300$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa0…ee01backed Yes | 34c | 300$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 7c | 234$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88f3…baa8backed Yes | 33c | 225.5$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.42 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 225$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 495 | 11.5%57 W · 438 L | -17.6wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…8bc9backed Yes | 13c | 200$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 7c | 198.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 182 | 3.8%7 W · 175 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 14c | 103.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 133 | 17.3%23 W · 110 L | -10.0wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf992…ebb5backed Yes | 36c | 95$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 36cpaid | -75.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed Yes | 33c | 85$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.05 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 33c | 79.16$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.96 | 669 | 14.8%99 W · 570 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x51f2…38efbacked Yes | 32c | 75$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -7.0wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x72a8…c016backed Yes | 32c | 51.63$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeec4…30b5backed Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x905d…2c17backed No | 64c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.11 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d5b…6c2abacked Yes | 65c | 23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05f4…7c4cbacked Yes | 55c | 23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2be…66b0backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x927e…a819backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Tim Cyr win the 2026 Tennessee Governor Democratic primary election?this page
- Will Adam Kurtz win the 2026 Tennessee Governor Democratic primary election?No won
- Will Carnita Atwater win the 2026 Tennessee Governor Democratic primary election?No won
- Will Jerri Green win the 2026 Tennessee Governor Democratic primary election?Yes won
- Will Kevin Lee McCants win the 2026 Tennessee Governor Democratic primary election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.