Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on July 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8d3abcc38b01def7f7fe0a633cb05e8098d1b4ce634b1667b540d9bc02eb6675
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,360
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,534
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,360 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 102 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8320…e302backed Yes | 28c | 734.17$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.23 | 104 | 30.8%32 W · 72 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 33c | 401.53$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.64 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 24c | 399.94$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.26 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 59c | 347.84$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.47 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 68c | 320.61$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.3 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3d0…158abacked Yes | 39c | 295.78$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.19 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 10c | 292.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.81 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 38c | 286.38$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.05 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 61c | 237.02$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.46 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 33c | 215.12$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 72c | 215.09$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.96 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc16…ef14backed Yes | 37c | 209.39$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.53 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 39c | 200$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.5 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 56c | 194.74$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.48 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 23c | 179.85$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.21 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 62c | 177.3$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.68 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…9288backed No | 58c | 172.76$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.56 | 172 | 62.2%107 W · 65 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 65c | 164$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.15 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 51c | 147.77$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.11 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d9…ec8abacked Yes | 30c | 146.79$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.39 | 156 | 30.8%48 W · 108 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 8c | 142.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 63c | 142$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.56 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 30c | 135$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 38c | 130.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.94 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed Yes | 35c | 129$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.15 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 79c | 115.52$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.18 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf12d…eeafbacked Yes | 33c | 114$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.62 | 167 | 33.5%56 W · 111 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 60c | 105$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked Yes | 21c | 104.35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5484…84e8backed No | 77c | 103.53$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.79 | 111 | 69.4%77 W · 34 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 67c | 102.59$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.16 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 60c | 102.06$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.39 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb68b…6327backed No | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 11c | 97.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 61c | 97.64$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.76 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed Yes | 40c | 95.39$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.15 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 18c | 94.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 67c | 90$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74dd…2131backed Yes | 19c | 87.9$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 91 | 15.4%14 W · 77 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e12…84debacked Yes | 61c | 87.67$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.48 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.8wins | -0.40per pick | 54cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 26c | 83$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x775c…28a9backed No | 62c | 80.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.42 | 89 | 64%57 W · 32 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa434…cf75backed Yes | 59c | 80$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.2 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26cb…a394backed Yes | 40c | 76.78$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.71 | 124 | 37.1%46 W · 78 L | -17.5wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 41c | 75.78$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.94 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 35c | 72.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 38c | 70.41$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.7 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 26c | 67.17$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd2…9ab1backed No | 67c | 64$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 91 | 53.8%49 W · 42 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 29c | 59.56$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.13 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 36c | 59.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 40c | 57.75$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.13 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 66c | 55.24$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 49c | 54.18$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.79 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 40c | 51.54$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.62 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 38c | 51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a2e…64a4backed No | 59c | 50.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.48 | 63 | 61.9%39 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 69c | 49.17$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.19 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6032…fde9backed Yes | 39c | 45.8$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +73.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 62c | 45$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.9 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 59c | 45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 60c | 44.4$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.76 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc89f…14a9backed Yes | 41c | 43.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 35c | 43.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 50c | 42.84$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.42 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf261…3335backed Yes | 49c | 41.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.23 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…ddd0backed No | 75c | 41.33$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.33 | 466 | 67.6%315 W · 151 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +334.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 25c | 41.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 73c | 41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…64f6backed Yes | 37c | 40.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 210 | 52.4%110 W · 100 L | +14.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5787…1f86backed No | 50c | 40.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.16 | 235 | 60%141 W · 94 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.1 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.36 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 51c | 39.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 57c | 39.21$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.72 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 54c | 38.09$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.42 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddb…3fa9backed Yes | 35c | 37.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 313 | 19.2%60 W · 253 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4210…ed3dbacked Yes | 64c | 34.84$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -5.2wins | -0.30per pick | 54cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 44c | 33.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 37c | 32.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.33 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5749…73abbacked Yes | 38c | 31.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 123 | 48.8%60 W · 63 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 38c | 30.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 197 | 34%67 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 61c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed No | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 244 | 51.2%125 W · 119 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01a9…75ddbacked No | 69c | 26.63$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 241 | 41.9%101 W · 140 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f3…f816backed No | 59c | 26.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.68 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 58c | 25.76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.76 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…50fbbacked No | 69c | 25.19$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.81 | 283 | 60.4%171 W · 112 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86da…1cf6backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 153 | 45.8%70 W · 83 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 74c | 24.44$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 66c | 24.17$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.15 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 48c | 22.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x515c…7587backed No | 60c | 20.92$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.37 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | -11.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 63c | 17.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…42efbacked No | 62c | 16.78$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | -13.9wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on July 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on July 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C or higher on July 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.