Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on July 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x34e06a66b8b98a80f77187a24b1b1e61a5a138f379526e643f3ce5081f8804ce
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,958
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,286
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,958 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 126 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 62c | 1,220$757 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$756.7 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 39c | 772.03$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$471.59 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8320…e302backed Yes | 74c | 523.09$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.91 | 104 | 30.8%32 W · 72 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 29c | 506.43$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.54 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 30c | 492.24$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.24 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 39c | 490$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.27 | 251 | 35.1%88 W · 163 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 77c | 452.42$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.47 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 39c | 368.36$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.59 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 53c | 347.59$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.13 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a67…5d96backed No | 72c | 334.3$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.17 | 158 | 41.8%66 W · 92 L | -8.8wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 61c | 314.46$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.38 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 34c | 259.66$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.58 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…0f4dbacked Yes | 30c | 251.04$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.73 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 66c | 247.61$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.64 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked No | 64c | 234.85$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.39 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 29c | 227.67$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.65 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 37c | 215.08$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.06 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes | 28c | 212$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.29 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 29c | 200$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.75 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 37c | 199.31$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.34 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 60c | 184.6$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.07 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa434…cf75backed Yes | 57c | 180$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.9 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 69c | 175.16$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.81 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 65c | 175$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.75 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 37c | 162$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.5 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 18c | 157.43$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.18 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x141c…3c70backed Yes | 29c | 155.81$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.63 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +178.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 59c | 152.26$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.25 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 33c | 149.48$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.65 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7adc…a971backed Yes | 34c | 149.27$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.6 | 150 | 40%60 W · 90 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed Yes | 26c | 145.5$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.81 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 70c | 142.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed Yes | 42c | 129$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.82 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 21c | 125.9$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.83 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 40c | 121.44$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.84 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 63c | 116.44$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.34 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 62c | 107$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.34 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…9157backed Yes | 33c | 105.8$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.1 | 245 | 31%76 W · 169 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 71c | 105$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.55 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 34c | 101.9$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.97 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 61c | 100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73b5…fe53backed No | 76c | 100$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1db…62afbacked No | 69c | 100$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.1 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 66c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.5 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 75c | 95.54$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.36 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 42c | 95$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.1 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 52c | 90.9$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.17 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 48c | 90$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.6 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 53c | 85.43$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.91 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 42c | 80.4$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.93 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 45c | 76.43$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.83 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 48c | 75.37$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x135c…7c21backed No | 66c | 74.86$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.15 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -3.8wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 35c | 73$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.71 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x426f…43c1backed Yes | 29c | 71.86$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.02 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +166.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f3…f816backed No | 63c | 71.52$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.88 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ea…ea62backed Yes | 69c | 71$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.01 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 23c | 71$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.72 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 69c | 68.98$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.7 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x471d…32cebacked Yes | 37c | 67.35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.62 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 33c | 67.33$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.11 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11b0…f988backed Yes | 38c | 65.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.35 | 155 | 56.1%87 W · 68 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes | 35c | 64.73$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.07 | 231 | 29.4%68 W · 163 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd2…9ab1backed No | 52c | 64$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.54 | 91 | 53.8%49 W · 42 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked No | 62c | 62.24$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.59 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb26…55a5backed Yes | 49c | 60.84$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.16 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 59cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 33c | 60.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 47c | 60.32$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f02…823dbacked Yes | 60c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +2.9wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe9…56d9backed No | 62c | 60$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 55 | 70.9%39 W · 16 L | +4.7wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5787…1f86backed Yes | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.82 | 235 | 60%141 W · 94 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf668…e47abacked Yes | 34c | 55.08$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 181 | 31.5%57 W · 124 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd0…b551backed No | 54c | 54.3$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.21 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 35c | 50.94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 31c | 50.93$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.32 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…9f83backed Yes | 79c | 50.85$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 84 | 76.2%64 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a2e…64a4backed No | 50c | 50.48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.11 | 63 | 61.9%39 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6946…6eb0backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 65c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.59 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed Yes | 25c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d50…e29fbacked No | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -67%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 55c | 45.24$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 62c | 44.22$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.93 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a85…ff94backed Yes | 76c | 43.65$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb65e…190dbacked Yes | 35c | 42.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.57 | 84 | 51.2%43 W · 41 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 30c | 41.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.34 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbbb…c918backed Yes | 33c | 40.58$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.19 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7320…0a3fbacked Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.4 | 161 | 48.4%78 W · 83 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3594…cd28backed No | 72c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31a…8817backed Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 182 | 54.4%99 W · 83 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b08…ab3ebacked No | 62c | 39.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.79 | 116 | 50%58 W · 58 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed Yes | 30c | 39.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.89 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f471backed Yes | 63c | 39.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.64 | 297 | 32.3%96 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50f4…b9ebbacked No | 32c | 39.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 51c | 39.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 63c | 38.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.67 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 32c | 38.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 74c | 38.39$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.95 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on July 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C or higher on July 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.