AI · resolved market
Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of July 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8d6fb0d86ff77f2a29b05e85b24d898ba77bff8b49118355057af18b47ddeb7e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,983
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,452
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,983 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x876b…1703backed No | 19c | 2,351$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.27 | 62 | 37.1%23 W · 39 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c1…16c0backed Yes | 79c | 1,035$820 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.72 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa284…fbbabacked No | 4c | 731.7$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.12 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 2c | 698$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 256 | 0%0 W · 256 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b67…b814backed No | 4c | 577.38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.09 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 19c | 503.26$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.82 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 263 | 12.9%34 W · 229 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b60…a55bbacked Yes | 80c | 499.99$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 21c | 468.4$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.58 | 198 | 18.7%37 W · 161 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x048a…9be4backed Yes | 79c | 460$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.6 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 20c | 454.97$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.43 | 79 | 43%34 W · 45 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 22c | 434.63$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.53 | 178 | 24.2%43 W · 135 L | -12.4wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -56%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d2…f954backed No | 21c | 430$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.3 | 88 | 53.4%47 W · 41 L | +13.9wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 19c | 386.93$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.68 | 194 | 32%62 W · 132 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52ea…3454backed No | 14c | 359.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked No | 6c | 352.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.26 | 267 | 4.9%13 W · 254 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 11c | 346.41$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.83 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 12c | 316.04$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.32 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…484abacked No | 19c | 275.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.44 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 17c | 253.97$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.79 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 16c | 215.26$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 70 | 32.9%23 W · 47 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 13c | 204$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.52 | 116 | 36.2%42 W · 74 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 21c | 202$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.95 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf00…0c1abacked No | 19c | 184.56$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.22 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 9c | 184.43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.14 | 220 | 19.5%43 W · 177 L | -11.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 18c | 179.48$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.42 | 322 | 28.9%93 W · 229 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 11c | 177$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.08 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ffd…e26bbacked No | 17c | 162.39$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.61 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 18c | 158$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 14c | 150$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0e…c02bbacked No | 19c | 137.11$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.05 | 81 | 23.5%19 W · 62 L | -9.6wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 19c | 105.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 164 | 18.9%31 W · 133 L | -21.7wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 18c | 99.84$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.73 | 48 | 31.3%15 W · 33 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -25%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 11c | 97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 87 | 41.4%36 W · 51 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 17c | 95.48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 17c | 94.54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 80 | 33.8%27 W · 53 L | -7.5wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb251…caa4backed No | 18c | 84.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 19c | 77.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 297 | 7.7%23 W · 274 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked No | 19c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 109 | 38.5%42 W · 67 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed No | 18c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 20c | 59.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9259…c2d3backed Yes | 68c | 57$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.18 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.15per pick | 64cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a9…339ebacked No | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb48…be6dbacked Yes | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…5273backed Yes | 79c | 35.91$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.41 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aee…4514backed Yes | 76c | 28.95$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked Yes | 78c | 22.36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.81 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c7…8a66backed Yes | 76c | 21.92$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.26 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c95…a884backed Yes | 80c | 13.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of July 2026?this page
- Will Alibaba have the best AI Agent at the end of July 2026?No won
- Will Amazon have the best AI Agent at the end of July 2026?No won
- Will Baidu have the best AI Agent at the end of July 2026?No won
- Will ByteDance have the best AI Agent at the end of July 2026?No won
- Will Google have the best AI Agent at the end of July 2026?No won
- Will Meituan have the best AI Agent at the end of July 2026?No won
- Will Meta have the best AI Agent at the end of July 2026?No won
- Will Microsoft have the best AI Agent at the end of July 2026?No won
- Will Mistral have the best AI Agent at the end of July 2026?No won
- Will Moonshot have the best AI Agent at the end of July 2026?No won
- Will OpenAI have the best AI Agent at the end of July 2026?No won
- Will Z.ai have the best AI Agent at the end of July 2026?No won
- Will xAI have the best AI Agent at the end of July 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.