CS2 · resolved market
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8dacdf5361471b22ba56f710e3dd110cea543437d4be6164e87cd92c57b355ec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Aurora Gamingof Aurora Gaming, 9z
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,965
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,260
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,965 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6401…f240backed 9z | 42c | 4,698$1,959 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,959.35 | 350 | 54.6%191 W · 159 L | +17.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29b5…cc6cbacked Aurora Gaming | 29c | 4,615$1,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,265.34 | 5,050 | 55.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L | +117.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaca0…9b86backed Aurora Gaming | 30c | 4,402$1,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,101.7 | 98 | 34.7%34 W · 64 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66b1…340fbacked 9z | 70c | 3,452$2,433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,432.83 | 1,157 | 48.2%558 W · 599 L | +3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x972f…65bdbacked Aurora Gaming | 59c | 3,378$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,378.37 | 391 | 57.5%225 W · 166 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed 9z | 70c | 2,500$1,750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,750 | 2,434 | 44.6%1,085 W · 1,349 L | -64.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Aurora Gaming | 29c | 1,188$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$837.86 | 2,624 | 51.8%1,359 W · 1,265 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…77dcbacked Aurora Gaming | 26c | 1,100$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$813.99 | 352 | 42.9%151 W · 201 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d29…0206backed 9z | 74c | 999.99$740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$739.99 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked 9z | 71c | 998.97$709 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$709.27 | 1,144 | 49.4%565 W · 579 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6376…0d2abacked 9z | 74c | 993.69$732 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$731.92 | 892 | 48%428 W · 464 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb57f…0c96backed 9z | 71c | 891.17$633 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$632.73 | 215 | 45.6%98 W · 117 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x751b…73fdbacked 9z | 70c | 842.08$589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$589.45 | 256 | 55.1%141 W · 115 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40e8…88a4backed 9z | 72c | 826.21$598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$598.45 | 171 | 62%106 W · 65 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1a…ebcebacked Aurora Gaming | 57c | 756.14$431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.14 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Aurora Gaming | 26c | 704.45$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.97 | 224 | 47.8%107 W · 117 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31c1…bc19backed 9z | 74c | 675.8$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 159 | 62.9%100 W · 59 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2662…3f84backed 9z | 74c | 674.65$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 209 | 58.9%123 W · 86 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed 9z | 72c | 565$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.92 | 256 | 34.4%88 W · 168 L | -12.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x824b…8386backed 9z | 76c | 526.32$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed 9z | 56c | 497.1$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.57 | 1,676 | 51.1%857 W · 819 L | +21.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f30…3aeebacked 9z | 75c | 468.25$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.19 | 83 | 53%44 W · 39 L | -7.1wins | -0.09per pick | 62cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed Aurora Gaming | 29c | 435.92$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.4 | 2,009 | 53.9%1,082 W · 927 L | +7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5b7…1454backed Aurora Gaming | 30c | 327.96$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.96 | 147 | 43.5%64 W · 83 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17cd…7423backed 9z | 70c | 322.43$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.7 | 462 | 43.3%200 W · 262 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…3f41backed 9z | 71c | 300.07$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.05 | 835 | 43.6%364 W · 471 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40e3…5627backed 9z | 72c | 294.35$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.93 | 405 | 58.8%238 W · 167 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e31…0e6ebacked 9z | 74c | 222.97$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 446 | 75.3%336 W · 110 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Aurora Gaming | 29c | 221.31$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.74 | 1,378 | 45.2%623 W · 755 L | +17.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe9b…cbe5backed 9z | 70c | 218.57$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 442 | 44.1%195 W · 247 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f57…3e7abacked 9z | 72c | 208.33$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 656 | 62.3%409 W · 247 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde25…c0a5backed Aurora Gaming | 30c | 200.95$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.58 | 220 | 49.1%108 W · 112 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x206c…2b8dbacked 9z | 71c | 200.48$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.34 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked 9z | 69c | 183.84$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.85 | 277 | 53.8%149 W · 128 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4536…f41bbacked Aurora Gaming | 31c | 161.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.29 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed 9z | 51c | 147.87$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.74 | 2,468 | 24.6%607 W · 1,861 L | -317.8wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe564…221abacked Aurora Gaming | 30c | 125.73$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.01 | 1,078 | 32%345 W · 733 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14c8…c192backed Aurora Gaming | 28c | 125$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 100 | 52%52 W · 48 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb83b…dc66backed Aurora Gaming | 25c | 112$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 148 | 51.4%76 W · 72 L | +8.1wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e46…8c1cbacked Aurora Gaming | 29c | 76.8$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.53 | 236 | 54.7%129 W · 107 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f41…5ffcbacked Aurora Gaming | 25c | 76.01$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.01 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x989e…6529backed Aurora Gaming | 28c | 75$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 130 | 40%52 W · 78 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d75…8f8abacked 9z | 73c | 71.14$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed 9z | 51c | 70.59$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 260 | 48.5%126 W · 134 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfcf…a26ebacked Aurora Gaming | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.67 | 48 | 22.9%11 W · 37 L | -9.0wins | -0.19per pick | 42cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf95e…53ffbacked Aurora Gaming | 54c | 60.56$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.86 | 198 | 49.5%98 W · 100 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef04…ab59backed Aurora Gaming | 58c | 59.83$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.83 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +87.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e6…5d5bbacked Aurora Gaming | 59c | 58.82$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.83 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +66.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x206f…631bbacked Aurora Gaming | 26c | 57.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.69 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f6a…a9f8backed Aurora Gaming | 29c | 51.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.72 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd4…1270backed 9z | 71c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.56 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9199…8638backed 9z | 71c | 49.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.24 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +23%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed 9z | 71c | 49.19$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.92 | 604 | 51%308 W · 296 L | +8.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8490…ac46backed Aurora Gaming | 25c | 48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe803…b60ebacked 9z | 71c | 45.45$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.27 | 324 | 58%188 W · 136 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6b…a307backed Aurora Gaming | 28c | 45.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.58 | 120 | 46.7%56 W · 64 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked 9z | 74c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 1,779 | 59.1%1,052 W · 727 L | +104.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed 9z | 74c | 38.04$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.15 | 2,326 | 45.1%1,049 W · 1,277 L | -62.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d4…a31ebacked 9z | 46c | 36.58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeef9…8731backed Aurora Gaming | 55c | 35.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 374 | 53.2%199 W · 175 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90c1…36e6backed Aurora Gaming | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked 9z | 73c | 31.65$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0010…c3a8backed 9z | 72c | 30.56$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 316 | 73.7%233 W · 83 L | +23.6wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0855…32debacked Aurora Gaming | 58c | 29.66$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.46 | 102 | 49%50 W · 52 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ca2…1d74backed Aurora Gaming | 55c | 26.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.13 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | +4.1wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +17%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe76f…39fcbacked Aurora Gaming | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 64 | 50%32 W · 32 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb91c…ed66backed 9z | 41c | 24.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 700 | 42.3%296 W · 404 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7b7…3852backed 9z | 75c | 20.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 95 | 65.3%62 W · 33 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked 9z | 71c | 16.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 256 | 50.4%129 W · 127 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb11a…a5d9backed 9z | 69c | 15.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5)this page
- Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3Aurora Gaming won
- Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 WinnerAurora Gaming won
- Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 WinnerAurora Gaming won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
- Map 1 Rounds Handicap: 9z (-3.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+3.5)Aurora Gaming won
- Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5Under won
- Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Aurora Gaming (-3.5) vs 9z (+3.5)Aurora Gaming won
- Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5Under won
- Map Handicap: 9z (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5)Aurora Gaming won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.