Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on July 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8de189f9ac12ae937c34fae7bf1268c5fba8cca6c0e0888a80d3d03270f49f7f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,937
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,676
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,937 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 158 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd314…47b8backed Yes | 48c | 1,738$827 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$910.98 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +118.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 65c | 1,418$924 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493.67 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 58c | 1,290$745 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$744.97 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 49c | 1,111$539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$539.23 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 26c | 880.16$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$655.16 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 46c | 494.3$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.55 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 51c | 488.87$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.9 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 57c | 437.75$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.69 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 26c | 427.29$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.42 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 45c | 422.71$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.37 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x342c…de11backed Yes | 56c | 374.99$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.68 | 172 | 41.9%72 W · 100 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 52c | 345.36$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.59 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93f7…c133backed Yes | 59c | 338.1$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.08 | 185 | 55.7%103 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7adc…a971backed Yes | 27c | 320.78$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.17 | 150 | 40%60 W · 90 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbb…2e57backed Yes | 61c | 292.96$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.96 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 60c | 264.85$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.28 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 37c | 254.66$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.62 | 251 | 35.1%88 W · 163 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 42c | 254.14$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.98 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 28c | 230.24$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.82 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 51c | 223.6$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.98 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 49c | 223.28$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.41 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 56c | 219.46$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.97 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 43c | 219.43$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.52 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 71c | 201.03$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.25 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 46c | 195.42$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.23 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x308f…8607backed No | 32c | 185.94$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -4.7wins | -0.11per pick | 60cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 55c | 180.51$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.51 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8857…4b5bbacked Yes | 56c | 178.05$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.05 | 227 | 40.5%92 W · 135 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 12c | 172.6$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.98 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xed30…87b1backed No | 52c | 169$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.88 | 185 | 49.7%92 W · 93 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 35c | 163.11$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.29 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 43c | 157.73$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.52 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 31c | 156$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.01 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x515f…a606backed No | 44c | 153.96$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.74 | 175 | 53.1%93 W · 82 L | -8.3wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 28c | 153$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.66 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 42c | 150.79$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.9 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a67…5d96backed No | 44c | 149.99$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.99 | 158 | 41.8%66 W · 92 L | -8.8wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef49…d27bbacked Yes | 67c | 145.39$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.43 | 216 | 51.9%112 W · 104 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 48c | 139.25$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.16 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 51c | 135.91$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.31 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 50c | 135.5$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.75 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf733…297dbacked No | 17c | 135.13$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.58 | 175 | 11.4%20 W · 155 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 44c | 134.17$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.53 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 60c | 131.96$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.55 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 27c | 127$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.92 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f3…f816backed No | 46c | 124.37$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.72 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 32c | 121.69$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.64 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca4…9ccbbacked No | 35c | 118.78$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.79 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 51c | 116.63$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.38 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 47c | 115.71$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.07 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed Yes | 42c | 105.07$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.13 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 59c | 101.69$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.69 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 53c | 100.01$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.96 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1f…eb96backed Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 231 | 46.3%107 W · 124 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed No | 17c | 99.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 45c | 97.88$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.67 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5844…5bd4backed Yes | 41c | 97.38$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.45 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 42c | 96.99$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.26 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb476…6eacbacked Yes | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 69 | 27.5%19 W · 50 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 56c | 86$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.16 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 13c | 81.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf48…1751backed Yes | 53c | 80$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.6 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd31d…f8bfbacked No | 44c | 79.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed No | 17c | 79.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e7…b9a1backed No | 43c | 79.21$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.31 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a2e…64a4backed No | 29c | 77.12$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.32 | 63 | 61.9%39 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 39c | 75.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.55 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe00b…f8a3backed Yes | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 103 | 54.4%56 W · 47 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 46c | 73.34$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.74 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x135c…7c21backed No | 51c | 71.61$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.36 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -3.8wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 78c | 70.48$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.22 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 59c | 68.28$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.28 | 289 | 46%133 W · 156 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 45c | 66.66$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.66 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e44…2c35backed Yes | 67c | 66.57$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.03 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…1c49backed Yes | 51c | 65.66$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.26 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 42c | 64.59$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.06 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 26c | 61.17$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 56c | 60$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 56c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 67c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.06 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…1d91backed Yes | 56c | 59.9$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.36 | 72 | 34.7%25 W · 47 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 50c | 58.13$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0187…0200backed Yes | 43c | 52.15$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.73 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67a8…7493backed Yes | 41c | 51$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.09 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfff1…5e20backed No | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked Yes | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb699…4e20backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 213 | 52.1%111 W · 102 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2480…1a9bbacked No | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 56c | 49.19$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.56 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfeb…a172backed Yes | 64c | 48.65$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.52 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed Yes | 56c | 48.09$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.16 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae79…5322backed No | 30c | 47.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 43c | 47.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.34 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f05…a9b9backed Yes | 56c | 46.78$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.48 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5576…59e9backed Yes | 54c | 45.91$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 170 | 33.5%57 W · 113 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b4d…77febacked No | 44c | 45.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 35c | 44.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 54c | 43.54$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.18 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on July 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on July 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.