Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on July 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeba21f221fb3d82b9163ccb6210aeaa088fcf22ba5477cc16b0baa190794120f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,486
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,335
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,486 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 61c | 696.09$421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.87 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 40c | 473.84$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.08 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 48c | 336.22$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.74 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 76c | 279.99$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.3 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 33c | 278.91$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.15 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed Yes | 6c | 262.83$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 239 | 41.4%99 W · 140 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 66c | 254.14$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.02 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 61c | 246.1$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.82 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 58c | 223.6$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.1 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 31c | 220.13$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.65 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 30c | 188$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.4 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb476…6eacbacked Yes | 35c | 142.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 69 | 27.5%19 W · 50 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 64c | 138.32$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.39 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1f…eb96backed No | 69c | 131.13$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.21 | 231 | 46.3%107 W · 124 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 49c | 121.9$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 58c | 118.2$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.05 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 34c | 114$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.76 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 62c | 113.92$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 60c | 111.95$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.45 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 69c | 111.71$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.35 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x135c…7c21backed No | 57c | 101.77$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.74 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -3.8wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe241…5b42backed No | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 87 | 56.3%49 W · 38 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 31c | 99.95$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.49 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 62c | 98.21$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.86 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 46c | 96.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.62 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 30c | 92.68$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.91 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…4067backed Yes | 28c | 86.75$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.29 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a2e…64a4backed No | 75c | 84.22$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.26 | 63 | 61.9%39 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b5…e373backed Yes | 41c | 76.65$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.44 | 151 | 28.5%43 W · 108 L | -12.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 66c | 75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 66c | 74.97$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.86 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x471d…32cebacked Yes | 36c | 69.97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.19 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed No | 71c | 68.51$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 278 | 52.9%147 W · 131 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11b0…f988backed Yes | 37c | 68.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.19 | 155 | 56.1%87 W · 68 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed Yes | 34c | 67.58$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.31 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 36c | 62.14$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked No | 69c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 43c | 55.38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.81 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 40c | 55$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.95 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 47c | 54.94$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 32c | 54.21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x549c…100abacked Yes | 38c | 52.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 124 | 38.7%48 W · 76 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb80c…827bbacked Yes | 34c | 51$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 277 | 54.9%152 W · 125 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 40c | 49.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc94c…9308backed No | 60c | 49.65$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.86 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…9157backed Yes | 47c | 48.57$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.83 | 245 | 31%76 W · 169 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 70c | 48.27$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 38c | 47.71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.28 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 37c | 44.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 66c | 44.77$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.37 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f3…f816backed No | 61c | 43.38$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.87 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32e0…3884backed Yes | 37c | 41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 110 | 25.5%28 W · 82 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 52c | 38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 39c | 37.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d62…72cdbacked No | 69c | 37.39$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.59 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked Yes | 40c | 36.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d70…cc5ebacked No | 70c | 35.71$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 156 | 66%103 W · 53 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked Yes | 38c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked No | 65c | 33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 65c | 30.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…2aa5backed No | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 161 | 57.1%92 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc865…7477backed Yes | 44c | 30.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -34.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 59c | 25.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.61 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x989e…aa30backed Yes | 44c | 25.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed No | 62c | 25.21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.58 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc7…5e40backed Yes | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 68c | 22.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.19 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 76c | 21.7$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.22 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 66c | 20.65$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 51c | 20.4$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.07 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74fa…7baabacked No | 69c | 20.03$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.22per pick | 51cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 53c | 19.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 53c | 19.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 66c | 18.61$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81e9…8e07backed No | 60c | 18.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.43 | 202 | 50.5%102 W · 100 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d66…a545backed No | 69c | 18.26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.66 | 114 | 69.3%79 W · 35 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 65c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac24…576ebacked No | 71c | 16.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 233 | 34.3%80 W · 153 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0de…3b38backed No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 124 | 73.4%91 W · 33 L | +6.2wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f6…1eacbacked No | 69c | 15.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.78 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 72c | 15.08$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.19 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on July 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on July 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on July 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.