MLB · resolved market
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 10.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8ed465b028b57f81c9b43c9b2052f3f375642f932a5a38b4bd54fe89a0c707ea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,272
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,313
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,272 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9f0c…7ca5backed Under | 69c | 29,888$20,508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,380.41 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -7.9wins | -0.26per pick | 63cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 31c | 24,754$7,780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,780.31 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 60c | 5,477$3,289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,187.75 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 40c | 4,917$1,982 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,982.19 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 32c | 1,694$534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$534.22 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 31c | 1,197$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.07 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Over | 32c | 800$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c8e…a316backed Over | 31c | 500$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 226 | 38.5%87 W · 139 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 40c | 431.8$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.83 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 31c | 420$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.2 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 32c | 414$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.48 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Over | 37c | 396.2$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.04 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked Over | 36c | 300$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.9 | 125 | 49.6%62 W · 63 L | +5.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 64c | 295.07$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.23 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 39c | 288.78$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.82 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Over | 38c | 233.84$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.86 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 62c | 233.84$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.86 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Over | 32c | 185$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.2 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 62c | 141.6$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.5 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f04…4e5fbacked Under | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43a8…d77fbacked Over | 38c | 114.04$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.87 | 142 | 59.2%84 W · 58 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07b1…b027backed Under | 70c | 113.6$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.08 | 209 | 44%92 W · 117 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Under | 64c | 105.88$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.45 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…ffcabacked Under | 62c | 104.08$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.55 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Under | 77c | 98.67$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.69 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 61c | 84.59$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 66c | 74$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 36c | 58.06$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.86 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x40d6…9892backed Over | 33c | 47.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 344 | 51.5%177 W · 167 L | -8.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b07…5f54backed Under | 62c | 45.08$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.13 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46b1…428cbacked Under | 68c | 44.87$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.37 | 191 | 63.4%121 W · 70 L | +14.3wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked Under | 62c | 40.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.24 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Under | 68c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bda…8254backed Under | 65c | 39$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.72 | 89 | 66.3%59 W · 30 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed Over | 41c | 38.26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 295 | 49.8%147 W · 148 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Under | 64c | 37.43$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…7b57backed Over | 31c | 32.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 67c | 32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd5b…3b06backed Under | 63c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 85 | 56.5%48 W · 37 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4180…fb3cbacked Over | 38c | 28.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.34per pick | 49cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…4c78backed Over | 38c | 28.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 80 | 56.3%45 W · 35 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x002e…bd31backed Over | 39c | 26.82$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 57c | 20.37$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.76 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e00…d2bfbacked Under | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.65 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 10.5this page
- New York Yankees vs. Detroit TigersDetroit Tigers won
- New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 11.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 5.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 6.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-3.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-3.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. Detroit TigersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.