TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
LYONof LYON, Team Liquid
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$526,456
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$627,067

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $526,456 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 349 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x40ea…832fbacked Team Liquid49c81,562$39,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39,949.9820339.9%81 W · 122 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc44f…d49fbacked LYON51c41,572$21,202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,370.0957246%263 W · 309 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed Team Liquid46c35,000$16,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,1001,82745.6%834 W · 993 L+26.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked LYON54c32,400$17,519 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,880.912,00458.2%1,166 W · 838 L+86.9wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Team Liquid44c29,269$12,762 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,762.263,13133.8%1,058 W · 2,073 L-150.7wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-34.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe361…ae44backed Team Liquid51c20,092$10,299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,298.889347%420 W · 473 L+44.2wins+0.05per pick42cpaid-7.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcf60…a6f5backed LYON50c20,000$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,00091854%496 W · 422 L-1.5wins0.00per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9770…0ff5backed Team Liquid45c13,976$6,240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,240.2759450.2%298 W · 296 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1956…750ebacked LYON54c12,787$6,916 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,871.04450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-16.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xadfa…324ebacked LYON50c12,000$6,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,999.85242.3%22 W · 30 L-3.2wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-17.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Team Liquid40c11,784$4,768 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,768.312,20233.3%733 W · 1,469 L-72.4wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-21.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe405…c67ebacked LYON44c10,775$4,713 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,062.0267760.4%409 W · 268 L+42.6wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+10.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7714…b814backed LYON57c10,091$5,740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,351.1154756.9%311 W · 236 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Team Liquid51c9,503$4,832 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,831.752,40642.6%1,026 W · 1,380 L+21.5wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Team Liquid42c7,941$3,340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,340.431,59842.4%677 W · 921 L-17.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd88…dadbbacked LYON51c7,803$3,979 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,823.261,09252.4%572 W · 520 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9cd1…285dbacked LYON55c7,000$3,850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,1509750.5%49 W · 48 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7553…65cabacked LYON57c6,750$3,848 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,902.567250.9%342 W · 330 L+6.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1365…c82abacked LYON57c6,648$3,757 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,890.3198956.8%562 W · 427 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb10b…0b04backed LYON52c6,383$3,326 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,056.4451044.1%225 W · 285 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a0f…1305backed LYON62c5,815$3,576 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,238.631,46361.4%899 W · 564 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf201…527ebacked LYON56c5,788$3,238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,549.31,29545.1%584 W · 711 L+49.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Team Liquid40c5,757$2,302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,301.7385442.7%365 W · 489 L-14.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8fbb…9a17backed LYON51c5,638$2,875 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,762.5625143.4%109 W · 142 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-14.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed Team Liquid46c5,573$2,538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,538.2176142%320 W · 441 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-22.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Team Liquid46c5,481$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,499.5995041.6%395 W · 555 L-32.0wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-23.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x74a8…df59backed Team Liquid41c5,420$2,215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,215.2736034.4%124 W · 236 L-21.2wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-8.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa2e4…bf9dbacked LYON51c5,000$2,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,45067552.4%354 W · 321 L+10.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Team Liquid44c4,845$2,139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,139.421,00342.5%426 W · 577 L-24.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-19.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd65…5726backed LYON57c4,487$2,565 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,921.815453.9%83 W · 71 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-2.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x60d0…e05fbacked Team Liquid47c4,355$2,047 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,046.859823.5%23 W · 75 L-10.5wins-0.11per pick34cpaid-46.9%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0xd3d2…fe85backed LYON57c4,300$2,451 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,84915543.9%68 W · 87 L+0.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid+5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbbf3…aa3abacked Team Liquid59c4,237$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,50021753.9%117 W · 100 L-0.9wins0.00per pick54cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x19d8…1691backed Team Liquid44c4,000$1,760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,76063546.6%296 W · 339 L+8.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5d0…d9e8backed Team Liquid49c3,893$1,908 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,907.7685746.3%397 W · 460 L+17.4wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e62…f6ffbacked Team Liquid48c3,250$1,560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,559.999248.9%45 W · 47 L+4.6wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x009b…26dabacked LYON53c2,340$1,244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,096.511833.1%39 W · 79 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa5ea…d96abacked LYON55c2,311$1,271 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,039.9655955.8%312 W · 247 L+50.8wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+20.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2f46…85c0backed LYON53c2,234$1,195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,038.7979864.3%513 W · 285 L+32.2wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+8.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdbaf…f5d1backed Team Liquid43c2,164$931 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$930.5147838.7%185 W · 293 L+11.3wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe504…600ebacked LYON53c2,143$1,141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,001.3117647.7%84 W · 92 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3af7…501ebacked Team Liquid2c2,111$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.733148.4%15 W · 16 L+2.4wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+19.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc83f…23e4backed Team Liquid50c2,070$1,039 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,038.823831.6%12 W · 26 L-3.3wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-18.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Team Liquid59c2,061$1,216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,21652848.9%258 W · 270 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x000e…f7e9backed LYON56c2,000$1,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88089943.4%390 W · 509 L+22.3wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed LYON56c2,000$1,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$879.991,43557.4%824 W · 611 L+36.0wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xda16…ac2bbacked LYON52c2,000$1,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$959.9915147%71 W · 80 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd525…1815backed Team Liquid45c1,993$896 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89613632.4%44 W · 92 L-10.3wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-26.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xba06…8024backed Team Liquid50c1,968$984 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$983.815853.4%31 W · 27 L-4.4wins-0.08per pick61cpaid-15.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf32d…bbbbbacked LYON50c1,959$980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$978.6946258.4%270 W · 192 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x82d2…beeabacked LYON51c1,950$995 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$955.57339.7%29 W · 44 L-9.3wins-0.13per pick52cpaid-26.8%equal weight39-0.09 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Team Liquid44c1,934$854 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$853.641,25838.6%485 W · 773 L-61.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-20.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x21ed…1ea1backed Team Liquid45c1,917$862 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$862.55639.3%22 W · 34 L-2.8wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-17.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5038…6236backed Team Liquid44c1,820$804 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$803.511643.1%50 W · 66 L-0.4wins0.00per pick43cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d85…f4e0backed LYON56c1,813$1,007 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$806.164247.4%304 W · 338 L+24.2wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-1.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe167…03a1backed Team Liquid52c1,790$937 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$937.4985652.2%447 W · 409 L+34.8wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+4.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2ff7…bf32backed LYON56c1,789$1,002 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$787.1666458%385 W · 279 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8e0…0e69backed LYON45c1,778$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$977.785244.2%23 W · 29 L-3.8wins-0.07per pick52cpaid+2.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x28a3…f681backed LYON55c1,732$948 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$783.8737039.5%146 W · 224 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75bf…4ba8backed Team Liquid47c1,532$725 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$725.024540%18 W · 27 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-13.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfce6…ba8bbacked LYON51c1,466$754 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$712.3811059.1%65 W · 45 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf1ad…6979backed Team Liquid48c1,462$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70086144.1%380 W · 481 L-10.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeecd…4fefbacked Team Liquid61c1,447$882 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$882.4436460.2%219 W · 145 L+9.6wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9bf…59e9backed Team Liquid44c1,405$618 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$618.15825%2 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick30cpaid+357.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2fbc…f944backed LYON61c1,400$854 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$545.8146263.9%295 W · 167 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick63cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d24…20b3backed Team Liquid45c1,390$625 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$625.4386943.2%375 W · 494 L-5.2wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-11.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe1e7…8a71backed Team Liquid31c1,370$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42047933.6%161 W · 318 L-10.7wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed LYON56c1,346$753 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$593.121,20743.5%525 W · 682 L-14.0wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-11%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b26…6091backed Team Liquid30c1,313$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4003327.3%9 W · 24 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-23%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd991…c1dabacked Team Liquid54c1,288$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7006538.5%25 W · 40 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf743…1811backed Team Liquid52c1,262$651 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$651.4821134.6%73 W · 138 L-16.6wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-31.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6df6…8458backed LYON41c1,228$498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$729.4535431.1%110 W · 244 L-5.4wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb20b…a3e1backed LYON56c1,209$677 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$531.966051.7%31 W · 29 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdfa8…cae6backed LYON58c1,200$696 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50482953.4%443 W · 386 L-3.7wins0.00per pick54cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea58…930fbacked Team Liquid43c1,200$516 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$515.991,21644.4%540 W · 676 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1943…1561backed Team Liquid28c1,191$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33038439.8%153 W · 231 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-27.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x568d…87d0backed Team Liquid42c1,190$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.84944.9%22 W · 27 L-0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x581f…9d8ebacked Team Liquid50c1,144$572 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57217042.9%73 W · 97 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-11.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc733…4f14backed Team Liquid45c1,113$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5006453.1%34 W · 30 L+3.1wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+18.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfc8f…3782backed LYON49c1,075$532 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$543.651,31037.3%489 W · 821 L-86.3wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-26.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6277…5a3fbacked Team Liquid44c1,072$468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46890537.5%339 W · 566 L-18.8wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb11…66cbbacked Team Liquid49c1,054$516 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$516.441,01955.8%569 W · 450 L+22.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3186…e9cabacked LYON66c1,046$688 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$358.081,53662.6%961 W · 575 L+157.8wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+8.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Team Liquid35c1,041$364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$364.042,67935.7%957 W · 1,722 L-153.5wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-32.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf163…ca34backed Team Liquid50c1,033$516 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$516.341,47748.3%713 W · 764 L+45.1wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8cfc…4f30backed LYON50c1,026$513 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5134535.6%16 W · 29 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-24.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffd…7821backed Team Liquid45c1,014$456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$456.3278043.1%336 W · 444 L-22.3wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-25.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x456a…6a90backed Team Liquid25c1,009$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.3416942%71 W · 98 L-9.0wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-14%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x37ca…f644backed LYON60c1,006$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$405.7524658.5%144 W · 102 L+6.4wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9569…27fdbacked Team Liquid58c1,000$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5807061.4%43 W · 27 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x62c6…ab7bbacked LYON55c999.99$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45083560.8%508 W · 327 L+45.1wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+8.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa469…0782backed LYON56c999.99$560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4401,32253.2%703 W · 619 L+36.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4e8d…febfbacked LYON57c999.98$570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$429.9926844%118 W · 150 L-37.1wins-0.14per pick58cpaid-26.2%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0xfd96…e623backed LYON56c999.97$560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$439.9939851.8%206 W · 192 L+0.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe732…898fbacked Team Liquid31c999.95$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.4815149%74 W · 77 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x41bb…26e8backed LYON57c982.46$560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$422.4621749.8%108 W · 109 L-7.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x82bf…de71backed Team Liquid45c950.44$428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$427.775342.5%320 W · 433 L-14.0wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-11.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd2ff…906cbacked LYON54c929$502 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$427.3412656.3%71 W · 55 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a3b…b968backed LYON68c880.97$595 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$285.9741060.5%248 W · 162 L-12.7wins-0.03per pick64cpaid-6.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Team Liquid36c880.25$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.681,82639.9%728 W · 1,098 L-61.4wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-20.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.