TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Nick Richards: Points O/U 9.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,090
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,077

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,090 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 10 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5b45…9723backed No74c2,022$1,491 inWon+$531.2326069.2%180 W · 80 L+9.6wins+0.04per pick66cpaid+4.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x42b7…4cf7backed Yes25c1,718$432 inLost-$43230%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8ee0…5233backed Yes30c310$93 inLost-$932040%8 W · 12 L-3.7wins-0.18per pick58cpaid-39.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x103c…232bbacked Yes30c187.43$56 inLost-$56.23560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No74c182$135 inWon+$47.284,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd27…5b4cbacked Yes31c170.66$53 inLost-$53.09633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7efd…caedbacked No68c115.28$78 inWon+$36.899975.8%75 W · 24 L+16.3wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+28%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0xad22…014abacked No70c110$77 inWon+$3327074.1%200 W · 70 L+30.5wins+0.11per pick63cpaid+18%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xea34…8efcbacked No71c40.83$29 inWon+$11.7116551.5%85 W · 80 L-6.6wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb358…2723backed Yes30c36$11 inLost-$10.83246.9%15 W · 17 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.